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Its not that simple news.
Hargreaves Lansdown are holding on behalf of PI's
Jupiter are holding on their own account, as are Norges and maybe Hargreaves asset mgt
HSBC are probably holding for their customers not themselves.
Legal and general are holders for their customers in funds(probably growth or UK alpha)
Capital are holding on their own account
Jarvis are brokers holding for customers
Harbinger are a hedge fund so its their money
IG are holding for customers

So almost half of your list are agents holding SXX shares in proxy accounts
At the mo. I estimate only about 30%of SXX is actually in II hands (though the next few days may well show a difference as the effects of the placing emerge).

Roobans Everybody who applied should get their full 1:22 allocation , regardless of broker, so long as the cash was in place, it looks as though most will also get 20% of the "excess offer" although that might depend on how many you bid for.

That's how much of my excess bid I got (with II)

Today's RNS's identify where 580 mill shares now sit , but remember there were~2 billion sold in the placing(and II's were willing to take ALL of the OO shares), some of these might well turn up in further holding RNS's and mean that together with the 13% of the (previous) MC held by Capital and Jupiter, and Norges 3%, SXX now has II holders of (probably) in excess of 30% of the stock. It begins to look like a proper grown-up company and should accordingly stop bouncing up and down like a spoilt child!(with apologies to any spoilt children reading!!)

Dura Forgive me if I post stuff you know, but stock exchange rules would require the SXX BoD to make shareholders aware of any formal takeover bid and it is in the end the choice of shareholders not the board.The board could recommend acceptance or refusal , but in the latter case would be expected to make a very clear case as to why refusal would be better and they would have to address all the risks regularly set out in their fund raising RNS's.
In any bid the starting point is the current SP(actually the market cap but one is dependent on the other.) and obviously SXX is more vulnerable now than it was when the SP was 38p last autumn and the MC IIRC about £1.5 bill.The recent fundraise has affected both the SP and the market cap and hence made SXX cheaper to buy for a predator.
As I said, for most II holders of many companies a quick and guaranteed profit of 30/40% is very likely to appeal, our II holders capital and Jupiter hold about 13% and there may be another 5-10% of II holdings who would , I Guess, accept a bid of 25p plus today.
So a bidder could be pretty sure to get 20% plus acceptances , to succeed he bidder would need to convince many of the 85k II's to agree and I really don't know if they would, LTH 's(ie several years) with averages anywhere from 15p up have not done very well, and still retain hopes of multibag profits.

Dura I made the point in support of a view , ridiculed by some , that SXX are likely to be in the sightline of predators, and that , in a way , resolving ST2 makes a takeover bid more rather than less likely. I am sure BHP (as an example only) will be well aware that SXX could be snapped up , the funding deal rejigged to a much lower level , taking several hundred mill out of the costs(maybe also buying GR out of the 5% deal )and the existing work schedule barely impacted.
In the normal nature of things , a bid with a premium of 30/40% over the market cap is often successful . In SXX's case the PI's , despite how bullish for the long term they seem here, would be foolish not to seriously consider such an offer.The Hancock deal is merely an indicator of the pressure on small (ish) companies with big ideas.

Duracell
Thought processes as follows

Cost of ST2 funding of $3.8bill equals $0.9 bill ie about 25 %
if costs of ST1($1.2 bill) were equivalent then $0.3 bill

ADD the cost of Hancock deal( 5% of gross revenue on to 13mtpa)
I suspect my estimates are low!

For comparison BHP weighted average cost of capital at ~3.8%

Back to the topic of the OP.The righteous...has a valid point .
SXX, in the RNS published yesterday identified(by implication rather than specifically) that the element of the ST2 finance package which is debt service, fees etc is $0.9 billion. if you add to that the likely lower cost of debt and the more user-friendly funding options available to a mining major, we are looking at a sum well over $1 billion and possibly closer to $1.5 billion . That's not money for equipment ,engineering, labour costs etc, that is the price of the funds. It is a price that could be halved by others think of the impact on the NPV and remember that borrowings continue to accrue interest for several years before SXX can even start to repay from revenue.
The OP does highlight the sort of calculations that other companies WILL be doing, and monitoring as the build progresses.

HI GD yes the intention is that the takeout securities which will back the RCF will be " secured notes". The assumption being that by then SXX have enough (saleable) assets to back such notes, but I was quoting from further down section D1 where it states that "as an alternative..."the other revenue sources are identified, so ultimately SXX's fall back position has to be that , in the event that they can't get a secured debt deal away.
As Slurms has suggested that hopefully won't come to pass - but then there were those here who kept offering the mantra "all debt" even when the company had clearly said that their funding requirement for ST2 exceeded their planned debt ceiling.
You are right that the risk of failure is IMV much reduced, however the risk of further dilution is not nil.We may well see sIgnificant SP oscillation as in previous years , the shrewd investor will/should be wary of that.

Have speed read the CB RNS so, with E&OE, here are my first thoughts.

Pretty much as expected and as described on 1 May.

Only two II holders of equity above 3%.Capital with 5.9% and Jupiter with 7.2%, so unless there are a host of <3% holders , it confirms the oft-repeated view that PI's hold a very large majority of the stock.

ST2 financing cost will be ~$0.9 bill !. he mine will (probably)get built but the banks etc will make fat profit as TBH we should all have expected.

End of September is armageddon , failure then is probably the end of SXX in its present form.

The $500 mill of secured bonds will have a max duration of 7.5 years, need to generate a min of $500 mill (after costs) and may be up to 15% coupon. And ,as we have seen, values tend to arise near the worst case.

Each $500 mill tranche of the RCF will need to be supported by EQUITY (my bold).mezzanine,subordinate debt and/or pref shares.

Summary The onerous nature of the deal is confirmed, SXX have a path to their funding but the costs are steep, and require a series of underpinning fund raise , which hopefully as the mine progresses, and the market cap rises ,will be less demanding than they seem today.

Dadean you don't really need to understand the maths (which can get complicated ) just recognise that some "shorts" are part of a balanced, guaranteed "no lose" strategy and do not necessarily mean that shorters expect the SP to fall . Indeed for most of the CB holders, a steady SP rise is the optimum outcome , its just that with a short in place they are insured against an SP fall.Its like buying insurance , you pay, but hope never to claim.

Hi dadean Hedge funds who hold SXX CB's make a steady 8.5% on the ST1 CB's's(or 5% on ST2 CB's) and can , if the SP rises buy at the conversion price and sell into the market at the market price(assuming it gets higher than the conversion price). So in a rising SP scenario they can't lose.
If they "short" the share by borrowing from holders, selling in to the market, they can also profit if the SP falls ie they buy back the shares they " borrowed" at a lower price and return the borrowed shares and pocket the difference.
Hedge fund "quants" make a living by calculating a scenario in which whether the SP rise or falls they are in profit.
That is why, so long as SXX has CB's outstanding there will be a percentage of their shares shorted.

If thats not clear respond and i'll seek to clarify.

feel free to ignore my last post, the sales were dated last week!!

Roy Kelly the NED appointed to the HUR board by Kerogen received and sold 6.5mill shares in the last couple of days at a nice > £1mill profit. that may be part of the cause of today's Sp fall.

Myo Addendum

What I should have said in my original post is that "CB holders may be offered shares at 15p OR LESS.

Myo as ever your analysis is methodical and accurate . What it means in practice is that the CB holders have a guaranteed "floating floor" as their conversion price. Ie if the SXX SP weakens over the next year or so then the Conversion price will be adjusted as you describe. They will always be able to convert and make a healthy profit, hopefully as the SP rises , but equally should it fall.In the event of a SP fall they may have to wait a while but happy in the knowledge that their conversion price has been rebased downwards to take account of SP falls . Worst case is that they can convert at the May 2020 SP +25%, at any point or the following several years.As I suggested this goes a long way to explain the (low by today's standards ) coupon.
It also makes the CB holders the only investors near -guaranteed a profit!

HI verde I had noted the fact that held to maturity, the CB's are repaid at 160%,(a 10%pa yield) but on the basis that the premium could(why insert the provision if it isn't to be exercised?) be scrapped , then CB holders who convert when /if the SP reaches 25p have their 60% profit probably much sooner than waiting to maturity.
I think SXX were backed in to a corner of lower coupon, much more generous terms.

John 2015 re AM I RIGHT The bonds can be converted at any time at the holders discretion , so see above, if the SP rises some holders may cash out and either hold or sell the resultant shares for a nice profit.The CB's as they convert may cause a steady drip of dilution , the good news is that the more the SP rises the more likely conversion is and vice versa.

The IG article throws up a few points which are worth highlighting IMV
""Sirius intends to review the conversion price [of the convertible bonds] in may 2020 which COULD (my bold) remove the premium from the conversion price".That is quite a stunning assumption , what it means is that CB holders may be(read WILL) offered new shares at 15p. That goes a long way to explaining why the coupon on these CB's is only 5 % and illustrates IMV that SXX decided that they were willing to accept more dilution in order to mange down debt repayments.
Next and somewhat more positive is that the $500 mill of plain vanilla bonds to use cityspeak, which will rank above the equity are near- certain to attract buyers . After all, if SXX can find buyers for $425 mill of equity which ranks below the bonds and essentially at the bottom of the capital hierarchy and hence carries higher risk , it should/will be less of a problem to sell the far more secure bonds.
It was also a surprise to me to see "Sirius only has enough cash to keep going until the end of MAY"(the month not the PM!!) little wonder that the change of direction and the revised funding strategy was adopted despite the more onerous terms.

To those wondering about cash withdrawals. The OO is essentially a multi step exercise.
First the cash for the entitlement shares (1:22) will be drawn from the account because these shares are guaranteed by the terms of the offer.
Then the total number of shares bid for in the entitlement element ( the 1:22) will be added up and allocated to PI's as appropriate.
That total number is deducted from the number allocated for the OO ie 218 million.
If the total number bid for by PI's is less than 218 mill the remainder will be allocated , on a basis to be decided by SXX (and depending on how many there are) to be distributed between the "excess bidders"
The various organisations(HL, barclays or your broker) will calculate for each holder how many excess shares they are entitled to (if any) and deduct the appropriate sum from your account
then the excess share will be allocated.
If there is still an excess it will be distributed amongst the placees who have already committed to buy ~2 bill shares.

FWIW I think (almost ) all of the 218 mill will be absorbed by the 1:22 allocation.
You are unlikely to see these steps as discrete on your account , only the final outcome.

GK JPM knew by canvassing the market that there were more than enough buyers of SXX equity at 15p. So yes they were underwriting and taking a fat fee,for what was essentially a done deal.My use of the word was to explain the practical rather than the legal position.