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A reminder The structure of the JPM deal was that SXX would demonstrate the willingness of the bond market to fund them initially and as as a basis for JPM setting up a "rolling credit facility". Why did SXX have to do this? Because each $500 mill. tranche of " rolling credit" would be matched by an equivalent $500 mill bond issue,ie in each cycle SXX would borrow $500 mill from JPM and subsequently borrow another $500 mill from the bond market to repay JPM . Thus ensuring that as the project advanced JPM's liability would never exceed $500 mill and by the time the last $500 mill of RCF had been borrowed SXX's liabilities to the BOND MARKET , NOT JPM would total $500 mill X 6 ie $3 billion.
The failure of this concept at the first stage underscores the enormous problem SXX now face , the problem is no longer how to get an initial loan of $500 mill but how to get at least $3 billion. Just to reinforce the problem, recent SP falls mean that the sum needed is now more than TEN times the company's worth.Had they been able to get the initial tranche away and held a market cap of ~ £1.5-2 bill as they did late last year then they could have shown a tolerable debt;equity ratio of 1: 2 or maybe 1:2.5 Anyone familiar with company accounts will know that a debt : equity ratio of above 2 is a danger sign, 10 is unheard of , on the present basis SXX hopes of a debt-based solution are now non-existent.

Myo re your query in your 8.23. Yeah I only skimmed back a few years to get an order of magnitude of money invested/expended.If you add in the loans generated as part of the CB offers plus Gina et al I am sure my first estimate of > £1 billion is valid.

Bellers - probably a software test

Hi Rich, I am happy to expand/clarify (within my area of understanding )if you have further questions.

Hi Rich, in general auto share transactions are algorithm driven ie they are transactions instigated by computer software rather than an individual acting on his/her own account or for an employer.The logic behind the algorithm can be varied in nature , typical examples are
"momentum"ie when an Sp moves in any direction follow the direction ,this has the effect of amplifying the move .
"chart based" ie buy when a share crosses a boundary eg 50/200 day moving average or
"rebalancing" , that is adjusting a portfolio to meet the required criteria, that could mean selling winners to restore a required percentage limit.
In short there are many reasons , it is true that because by some estimates over 70% of trades are "autos" they tend to drive the market but IMV there is nothing underhand or sinister in this.

Nelson you,ve got the telescope to the wrong eye!
Are you aware that your posting history is visible ?
ie
13 Aug SP 8.7p "I can see 20p"
3 may SP 15.77 " I can see 15p"
29 Apr SP 21.7p "I can't see 15p"
18 apr SP 20.18p"I sold at 27p"
11 sep 2018 SP27p BOOM buy buy buy 50p soon!
need I go on?

Scotman in your post of 19.52 last night i think you may be confusing the $400 mill CB offer first published in April with the $500 mill pre cursor to the JPM ST2 deal.The failure of the JPM deal takes SXX (in funding terms ) back to where they were in April and excludes the use of the escrowed monies arising from the April/may deal which were due to be released on 23 Jan 2020. That money would have allowed SXX to carry on work for (at perhaps reduced rates ) another 6 months or so beyond that date , ie well into next year. The refund of those escrowed sums tightens the noose even more over SXX, makes their negotiating position even weaker and jacks up the cost of any future funds secured.
You said 3rd para. "the $400 mill is now inconsequential" - I think not.

Sheps Do you really think I would work for £45 per post, my contributions are worth much more than that!! Mind you I cannot help but agree with your assessment that "those who a (sic)paid are very clever cookies indeed"!!!
Now that you realise my value perhaps you will take note of my input?

Hi Scotman I posted 'cos I don't think the bleeding obvious has been posted here in a fortnight. I would welcome your in-depth analysis of why my post is inaccurate/flawed. If you can assemble a counter argument I am willing to listen and accept it . The floor (or board)is yours.

I have refrained from posting here(with a couple of minor exceptions) since the news of the deferment of the ST2 funding broke.However I have yet to see, either here or in the business press, a clear illustration of why the SP was hit so hard(down around 60% on an already depressed price).
This IMV is what the RNS told us.
SXX was required to repay the holders of the 5% CB' s issued recently because "A stage 2 debt Non-occurrence event" has taken place. The consequence of that is that the JPM deal is dead and SXX now need to find another $400 million from a market reluctant to lend. SXX cash need is now $3.4 billl (or probably a good deal more as their cost of money is several percentage points higher.Each 1% on their financing cost adds $30 mill to their ANNUAL bill.
The impact on planning and progress is severe. SXX cash position is that they have ~£117 mill of uncommitted cash. I attempted to determine their monthly spend in a post a few months ago but guessed at £50 mill per month , in fact it has been running at ~£90 mill per month.What we know is that the co. said they had around six weeks of cash available but now intend to reschedule to make that cash last up to six months .Now we can assume that some of those costs are capex and they may be able to negotiate a deferment 'cos suppliers would rather be paid later than not at all , but simple arithmetic tells us that they need to function at roughly 25% of current levels to be able to afford to carry on for six months. BUT - many of a a company's functions are mandatory, health and safety , accounting, payroll, human resources etc etc and they must continue , the impact of reductions can only be applied in the discretionary areas and for SXX that means the build. It follows that tunneling will have to be gravely curtailed or, IMV suspended within a matter of weeks , maybe days.
The consequences of the above facts are enormous to the company's plans and cash projections . The project plan must be rewritten with longer timescales , greater costs and later revenues, the impact on the NPV will be severe.
That in a nutshell is why SXX SP has collapsed and why it is unlikely that any outcome bearing any resemblance to all of the company presentations or published documents is now not merely improbable but impossible.
As ever I welcome any comment or criticism and will respond but I will ignore all insults.

Hi Mines......If you are shorting a share you have borrowed it from someone else for fee which you have already paid. If the co. goes in to administration your obligation to return the shares is no longer relevant and so you have all the proceeds of the share sale and no subsequent costs - 100% win!(excepting the borrow fee)

Hi Chero.. Deramper-you must be thinking of someone else! I offer cool analytical fact-based input !!.
I have steered clear of posting because I didn't want to appear to celebrate others misfortune and because I am afraid I can offer nothing positive from my reading of last weeks RNS, Nor from the Conf call, both of which I thought held out yet more false hope for now long-suffering SXX holders .I have learned to read between the lines and to unpick the words which mean much less than they seem. My conclusion is that SXX are in a near-terminal state with at best ,the hope that financing, if it occurs at all, leaves at least a small piece of the company for existing holders.Sorry but that's my take . If I get time over the weekend I will spell out my view in more detail.
All LTH's have my sympathy but also a shade of regret that so many have invested so much with much less understanding of the risks than was appropriate.

Thanks Chris, I do always try to contribute constructively, if conservatively, and hope it helps.

Its "whole number syndrome", despite there being absolutely no significance in round numbers almost everybody sets buy /sell targets in whole units - so as SP reaches eg this am 11 pence many choose to sell.
The same people may plan to buy back at 10p or 9p or 8p but not 9.765p for example!

Crystal amber is an active, fundamentally long-only fund, the other big players here Kerogen, Pelham and the recently active Alken are all essentially long-only and all expect to benefit from a share price rise , if not now then at some point in the future. Between them and a couple of others they hold over 40% of HUR stock .The holders of convertible bonds are lending HUR cash for a steady coupon and the prospect of converting the bonds to shares and then selling at a HIGHER price . They are all like us PI's (except a little less frenetic and a good deal more rational). They will , absent a major setback ,hold until they are in substantial profit. It is a sound strategy , I recommend it.
Most of the volatility here is PI instigated and best ignored .

Most brokers offer an alert facility, which you can set at a range of levels,above or below the current SP. the benefit is that once notified, you can monitor sharp price changes AND EXERCISE JUDGEMENT as to whether you wan to buy or sell.That way if you think the sharp movement is merely temporary you can choose to do nothing.

Just a couple of observations on why the SP response to this weeks news has been relatively muted.
First I recall saying some time ago that most of HUR's market cap can now be attributed to the oil flowing from Lancaster, the FT has the average of analysts estimates of HUR's revenue at £127mill for this year and £ 302 mill for next year. So HUR is an oil production company valued on the basis of flowing oil.The Lincoln well and all other assets are in the books at a negligible value and IMV might remain so until confirmation that LIncoln is suitable for production and , to a degree the jury is still out on FB generally and the likelihood of Rona Ridge being a multi billion barrel resource.
It is also the case that HUR has a relatively "tightly held" share base, despite Kerogen's recent sales they still hold ~20%, Pelham, Crystal amber and others are here for the long term , as is, I suspect a very large proportion of the II base, hence the relatively leisurely drift down over the last year , the stability in the 40p+ range and the lack of significant response this week.No signs of panic in either direction!
While the perceptions of posters here much more expert than me (tho' that wouldn't be difficult!!) seem to be that all the Lincoln signs are positive , until HUR say it's a successful drill the SP may languish (TBH I don't mind, I can happily accumulate at these prices!)
I also think that we are yet to reach the point at which the market accepts that Lancaster will produce at predicted rates for years rather than months, that conviction will appear gradually as each regular offload happens .
I exited HUR last year at very near the top - that was good luck rather than expertise, I believed then , and I believe now, that HUR is sitting on the rights to a significant resource, is equipped to exploit it and value in terms of SP will out eventually.
I am adding.

Come on guys -there are two sets of convertible bonds extant at the mo.They offer conversion at ~20p or ~24p NOBODY , not even some of the posters here ,are likely to convert their bonds in to equity at double the current SP.

Story in today's telegraph
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/09/08/ocean-energy-power-new-data-centre-scotland/

possibility of a deal to increase from four to forty turbines in the Meygen array, if it happens would move SAE to a point at which revenues would be £10-20 mill pa.

My last posts here were back in Nov. last year , despite my positive view of the Co. at that time I bailed out in the 350's last year as the sentiment around packaging, plastics and retail was deteriorating.I have been watching for an entry point and have now re-invested.

Examining the entrails I have come up with the following estimates for the reporting year 2019/20.

Full year OP ~£800mill
PTP £400 mill
EPS 40p
Divi 20p

ROS >12%

downsides
paper costs(and pulp) are likely to rise though SMDS are offsetting this by their own production facilities
Integration of recent acquisitions is yet to complete
the macro economic climate is bad and worsening.
retail is stagnant at best.
Upsides

E - commerce is growing at ~6% pa
Once integrated EU and US acquisitions will add significantly to the top line(and costs will drop out)
FX will benefit revenues significantly from US and to a lesser extent from EU.

first cut figures so all welcome to criticise, correct , amplify.