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IBAB almost all bond issuance is Institutional only. There are some bonds available to pI's I hold ELLA, GACA, BBYB, LLPC and some others but their is a fear amongst the city watch keepers that the individual is insufficiently skilled to understand that bonds normally move inversely to equities and that bond prices rise when interest rates fall. I was recently banned from bond investments by one of my banks brokers because of warnings from the FCA-despite having made significant profits for two decades!!!Fortunately there are some brokers who (after passing their market knowledge test) will allow PI bond trading

typo $200k

IBAB the bond sale was not a retail offer , min invest $220k IIRC

Navara CAL was a share consolidation (look it up) nobody made any money, in fact they lost a little

The short closing is effected by buying back stock in the market and returning it to the lender. This is because the holders of the short know that there is very little downside left in the trade(ie the chance to buy back much below the current SP is negligible) and they will "clear the books " to move on to another trade. Various entities will be closing positions as they believe the deal will complete and they know that the cash will not hit the bank for few months, the steps to complete all deals even when agreed are somewhat cumbersome.The effect on the market is slightly positive, but can and will be, offset by whatever AAL and its agents are doing.

HI Fred let's see how things turn out - if the company and this board disappear , before it goes I'll tell you my story of my first and biggest near-catastrophic loss in my investment career. I think it illustrates that good can eventually come from harsh lessons!

WWGuk I condensed my 7 pages of A4 notes into a post , so I didn't bother to specifically identify companies as i was merely doing a summary of where most of them stand and seeing what inferences I could draw. There is no problem with naming names as this is all info. in the public domain, I chose not to name the only non-hedged short as I suspected the identity would further infuriate some posters here!

No problem FFC TBH I am disappointed to be proved right in this case and equally to have failed to convince some decent people that they were taking greater risks than they appreciated.

GLA (here and elsewhere)

FFC market manipulation goes on all the time, it is the job of Central banks to manage exchange rates by varying interest rates, DE Beers (now owned by AAL)manage the price of diamonds by restricting the volumes coming to market,all luxury goods companies maintain high prices by enforcing scarcity, and in this case a company with deep pockets can regulate the market by buying as the price falls and selling as it rises, I'm afraid that's just how it is . If you plan to keep on investing you need to understand and learn to accept that as a small player you can only respond to this by intelligently planning and monitoring your investments. I know you have had sharp words for me in the past but no problem , as I have said several times my aim here (in which I comprehensively failed) was to try to spell out the dangers inherent in an SXX investment such that some of the more wildly optimistic might think twice before getting deeper in to what was always a highly speculative stock

IF this takeover happens the safety of bonds over shares will be amply demonstrated!That's one reason why my boring primary portfolio has a fair share of bonds.

IBAB as I showed in a post a few days ago with a Bloomberg screengrab the bonds were trading at a 60% discount until news of the AAL"deal" broke, so despite the healthy interest rate the bonds were far from popular because of course the corollary of a high interest rate is a high risk.The bond prices shot up because the likelihood of default diminished sharply and because as part of the potential takeover AAl are required to involve bond holders in discussion as defined in Appendix 2 para 1.5 of the Slaughter and may guide I referenced recently. To paraphrase it says" the offeror is required to make an appropriate offer or proposal.... to bondholders", as you say given the high coupon extracted from SXX and the much better credit quality of AAL that offer was almost certainly a buy out of the bonds.So the answer to your question is the bonds will in all probability be bought at a sharp premium to reflect the loss of the conversion prospect and the conversion terms will no longer be relevant.

Nah - me neither , but many years ago a girl friend persuaded me to go to Covent Garden with some super-expensive tickets her parents couldn't use, I didn't fancy it until she told me it was Salome!
Now as some of you will know there is a scene where Salome removes seven veils - and that is where we are now with respect to II's investing in SXX, the veils have to come off and all is revealed.
So I have been examining the 60+ RNS's of late from 25+ different entities and this is what we can now see(not as exciting as Salome i'll grant you).
There are about 11 organisations which are essentially long SXX, either shares, CB's or both including both SWF's, insurance co'sand some investment houses, 8 have hedged positions ,mostly shorts or CFD's to hedge CB 's almost all, not surprisingly, are hedge funds! Several are neutral and trading algorithms for pennies on volatility and only one is entirely short.I won't name them , if you want to find out you have to peel away the veils yourself.
AAL, through their agents are picking up a few shares but selling as well as buying to(legally) hold the price below the offer price and I suspect being helped by a major(if far too long delayed) exodus of PI's.
What conclusions can we draw?, well,there is a surprising number of apparently competent organisations which will lose money, having failed to run before the veils came off,the low short interest implies a general belief that things will not get worse, a sale is probable so there is not much downside left and interestingly as there are willing buyers for the CB's at 20% above par they think that AAL will buy them out at above that level. The relatively low level of trading suggests that the SP may well drift along until and after, a firm offer is made, and that by Easter AAL will be the proud owners of a hole in North Yorkshire(despite widespread reservations about the purchase).

ANDY the CB holders know they have the certainty of a regular coupon payment on the bond and the possibility of making money if they could convert the bond and sell the resulting shares at a higher price. Their only risk is if the SP falls and either SXX go broke and cannot pay the coupon , or the Sp never rises above the conversion price. SO, if they take a short position and the SP falls they make a profit. carefully calculated there are ratios of value of bonds to the size of the short position which maximise revenue whichever way things go . Hedge fund "Quants" make their living by calculating and constantly adjusting such positions so that as a minimum they break even on the SP and collect the coupon , or even better profit as the Sp oscillates .
I am currently going through the last few days RNS's and will post a summary of how the various players are handling things either tonight(probably not) or tomorrow, the current takeover situation is one in which all the actors have to "own up" to what they are doing and it is very revealing.

Just had a message to say that this week's talk from Sirius at the Newcastle Lit and Phil is cancelled!!
An alternative talk on a different mining disaster "the Hartley mine disaster " is the alternative . As my Grandad worked in the Beaumont pit, Elswick , Newcastle , at the time of the 1929 accident (29 dead)but was fortunately above ground when it happened I will give it a miss.

HI WWGUK I normally use the latest version of this
https://www.slaughterandmay.com/media/39320/a-guide-to-takeovers-in-the-united-kingdom.pdf
As my guide to takeover matters but from memory I believe that a bidder ie AAl can acquire up to 30% of the target BEFORE making a firm bid. This has the advantage of acquiring votes which you know will say "yes" to the bid and possibly acquiring shares at less than the bid price.In normal circs a company under offer will find its SP rising towards but not above the bid price. As AAL are a mining company and not a broker they will use a third party as you have identified, to acquire shares, this is not unusual. All the evidence we are seeing suggests that a firm bid is near-certain and acceptance only slightly less certain.
As to the terms of paying a price equivalent to the prices paid in the market , before or after, the potential bid becomes known I think it's pretty much irrelevant - I doubt that AAL have acquired ANY shares at more than the offer price.Incidentally in briefly scanning the Slaughter and May doc I noticed that the offeror is Required to discuss terms with CB holders so I think that those guys are all on board with a nice early redemption at a premium as I thought probable and as the market for the bonds is indicating.

To clarify "just back in...." means to my office, not re-investing!!!!!

Just back in and haven't checked but I think it's not the bonds which are in escrow but the funds to pay the coupon . Will check shortly.

IBAB i've been trying , in vain, for some time to convince many holders here aggrieved by shorting that some of the hedgies holding CB's use shorts to create a beta neutral position , to safeguard their coupon revenue.

Note also that there have been a number of CB 's traded at prices ~$120 see Scotia bank sale at $119 and there are others if you care to scan the RNS's

SEE

https://twitter.com/BondHack/status/1215254240148496384
though its just a Bloomberg screengrab , if you know that the right hand side axis shows dollar prices rising from $40 to $120 when the deal was announced then:

The SXX bonds which were trading at a very large discount for months (indicating the market view that the company was going bust)are now trading at a premium which indicates that the market thinks the deal will complete and, incidentally ,that they expect AAL to buy out SXX' s creditors(both bondholders and , I suspect, Gina H ) at a premium and refinance at sharply lower rates owing to their much greater credit quality.