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Hi Fred - the problem is that you were all looking in the wrong direction.The problem is, always has been and always will be about extracting the worlds most valuable commodity: MONEY!!

Gert - you win !

That's Known as an FPTF trade if you haven't worked it out I'll spell out the acronym this PM(that's afternoon!!)

Realsicilian-it is clear from the sounding out of Pi's for their voting intentions ,the noises being made by Odey, the position taken by Polygon and of course the groundswell of opinion here that a positive vote for the deal is in serious doubt.Given that AAl will already have plans in place assuming a yes vote , to lose would put a spanner in their works.
The ace up their sleeve is of course that the scheme of arrangement is not predicated on a FINAL offer(so far as I am still aware?) and they therefore can still tweak the deal to buy success.
I have said before that the actual cost of buying 7 billion shares at 5.5p is a fraction of what AAL will have budgeted to bring Woodsmith into production,so to increase the offer would be an irritant but almost trivial in the grand scheme of things.
Lets assume Woodsmith costs a further £2.5 billion to bring to full production, then raising the offer price to 10p (another £400 mill?) is only an additional ~12% of the total cost of the exercise.
I am NOT saying this will happen, merely that in the position AAL find themselves in , it might be the easiest solution.
Alternatively their accountants might tell them that allowing the bid to fail, waiting for insolvency and acquiring it then is more cost-efficient.
It's turned in to a poker game ;Who is bluffing? who has the aces?who will fold?
MY speculation (repeated - speculation) is that AAL might pull a rabbit out of the hat at or before the court meeting, especially if a headcount and the mood of the meeting(and soundings with II's) shows a NO vote is likely, they might seek to buy their way out of the impasse by offering a few more pennies per share.
If,of course, the already submitted NO votes from PI's amount to more than 25% they are stuffed! and the deal falls.Votes now cast cannot readily be amended.IIRC AAL cannot come back with another offer for six months and SXX will probably be declared insolvent immediately or very soon after.

"Odey to vote against Anglo American rescue bid for Sirius Minerals"
Odey only hold 1.4% as stock , but i can't believe he isn't talking to other holders and that the Mayfair mafia aren't colluding.It therefore is looking more and more like a NO vote next week, perhaps both on votes and headcount. AAL have various options- raise the bid (having agreed with Odey , polygon, Jupiter et al what price will clinch a deal), call it off,or wait for insolvency. Clearly Odey and cronies don't think the latter two are likely, thus I would expect a sweetened offer before the vote on the third.

Gert I think you are missing the point A decision on supporting SXX during the election period would NOT (and did not)occur because it would have been seen to be political see

"The Cabinet Office issues guidance for civil servants in UK government departments, and the staff and members of non-departmental public bodies (NDPBs) and other arm’s length bodies (ALBs) on their role and conduct during election and referendum campaigns."
from the doc I referenced.
I did work for a Gov minister for a time and know what goes on in practice.
I will not not return your insults nor respond further

Gert
https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN05262

Well speaking for myself I'm ashore in the canaries trapped by "La calima " the sandstorm blanketing the Canaries, but the good news!is that I have internet access and have reviewed the SXX situation for your benefit.(At this point those of you who wish to, can ignore the rest of this post and deliver your usual sarcastic reply!)
Still reading?
OK the position as I see it is this:
There is a strong possibility that you collectively , could, if you assemble 100+ attendees at next weeks meeting win the "headcount"vote ie a majority of >50% of attendees.If that happens I think it is a corruption of the intention of such provisions and may well prompt legal challenges from both SXX and AAL.That would create a limbo in to which SXX would fall and be declared insolvent
I think it probable that the posts here, the sharesoc initiatives and the fund raising efforts represent a very committed and vocal cohort but perhaps only a single figure percentage of the total of PI 's.
Thus,I think the possible outcome, even if the II's vote more than 75% of the shares in favour of the "scheme"(and I suspect they will because many of the 85000 PI's have given up and sold) the bid fails.That is not good news for anybody,see above.
AAL and SXX will have a much better handle on the possibilities and are acting accordingly .
Jupiter, Polygon ,Odey and Blackrock now hold over 20%of the equity and their aim will be to squeeze AAL as hard as they can .I wouldn't be surprised to see a last- minute bump in the offer price to ensure that the 20% of votes they J,P,O and B hold are voted in favour.Going on the basis of posts here and other actions I think it unlikely to sway the NO vote.
I hold stock in Polygons parent ,TFG, and they have an investor call on Friday, to which I have submitted a question on their strategy and expectations WRT SXX, I also, (conditions, location and access permitting )intend to listen in on the call and if they offer any illumination I will pass it on.
I am not sure that the strident voices here fully understand that the most probable outcome of their actions is harmful to both companies, to their own remaining investment, and that of the remaining, less vocal PI's, to the local economy they profess to support , SXX' employees (hundreds of whom are NOT board members)to the contractors employed on-site and all the local businesses currently benefiting from the mine activity .

I am a holder here, and have noted a cheap but potentially lucrative bet on screwing a higher offer for SXX out of AAL which might be worth a lot to TFG. I also note an enormous discount to asset value .This is a potentially very profitable investment - anybody else awake?

Today's note from Odey and the Polygon position of control of~10% of SXX stock suggest to me that the Hyenas of Mayfair are gathering to pick over the corpse of SXX.I think the anger expressed here , and particularly the apparent depth of the no vote from PI's is suggesting to some key players that the AAL takeover in it's present form, may fail.
Is that good news as so many of you hope?I think it probably is.
Worst case may be a higher takeout price for SXX(after all AAL's full costs to Poly production are still several billions and the current price to be paid for shares is a small part of that, so a raise in the bid is not too painful) and best case may be that AAl pull their offer rather than have it voted down. IIRC it is not deemed "final" which allows AAL to revise it to something which will succeed.
Such a revision would involve AAl in buying off Polygon and Odey and the other II's who scent blood, and that of course means more money, some of which would trickle the way of PI's.
I don't offer financial advice but were I in your shoes I might hold and await the outcome, AAL have got to move fast to ensure they collect the prize.
Declaration - For my part I have an indirect stake here which Is looking positive!!

FFC I haven't got good enough internet to check the details(marina side bar Wifi or tethered phone just don't cut it!). But IIRC Polygon have already held CB's and sold at a substantial profit , after collecting some 8.5% coupons and rolled over several profitable shorts.
As per my post of a couple of days ago, they are spending a small amount of those profits on the (fading )possibility of a higher bid or of utilising the provisions of the takeover code to irritate AAL in to buying out their blocking stake(held via CFD's )for more than 5.5p, or at worst realising a profit by holding or selling the stake to a third party at some point after the deal closes.It appears that all of their potential profit avenues rely on the demise of SXX.

LTV the problem with a no vote is timing.There are no documented substantive alternative rescues and SXX will be technically and realistically insolvent .Therefore any rescue will begin from that position, emergency funding is a sticking plaster on a fatal injury.
A "new " owner would need to resuscitate the corpse and accept the additional costs involved and the inevitable delays, contract renegotiations etc....That is why AAL are willing to pay what it takes to acquire the company while "alive"and accept all the strings attached ( a total of perhaps >£1bill) rather than wander in to the mortuary.
SXX made it very clear last September that they had a maximum of six months , the well-advanced AAL bid will JUST scrape in to that timescale, no other solution will.

Polygon are acting on their own account.They specialise in low cost, high risk, high reward bets and generally do it very effectively, though they have on several occasions come very close to screwing the entire company. That will not happen in this case(see my post of 7.33 on 10 Feb).
The two Principals Paddy D. and Reade G. have vast experience and enormous self-belief and their actions here are typical.

Turning to the likely outcome of events, it must be remembered that the crucial issue here is not the cost of extracting Poly, it is the cost of extracting money.
While for SXX the full cost of mine development would have been $3 bill up front and nearly double that when interest charges of >10% pa over seven years are accounted . For AAL those interest charges will be ~2-3 % and hence in the region of $2 bill less to full production. ALL the II's recognise that , and those who want to retain an interest in the Woodsmith mine will vote in favour of the deal and buy AAl .If the deal goes ahead the II equity holders will lose out short-term but may , if they choose to invest in AAL, benefit longer term.Bondholders will do very well, either holding bonds with a ridiculously good coupon when supported by a top tier miner or selling out at a handsome profit when AAl offer a "sweep up" as I suspect they will.
Voting no is a result of allowing emotion to overrule judgement and is illustrative of a mindset unsuited to investment.

Trinityman though true the "just off a boat ... was a joking reference to one of the many insults i get here.The main thrust of the post was to seek to explain something about Polygons use of CFD's which, despite your assertion, seems not to have been clearly set out by anybody here.
Yellow Polygons activities might have helped to drive the SP up to a fraction above the offer price so the benefit to you is to get out at a touch higher than waiting, no more than that.
15 lives it was almost exclusively steerage passengers who succumbed on the Titanic, there were lifeboats for all in the upper classes- sadly life's a bit like that!!

Hi folks I'm just off a boat(!!!!!) having gone round in circles for a few weeks , just like most of you here- well mine was, to be more accurate, an ellipse but I am back almost where I started from so the effect is the same .I've skimmed the posts here since I left and see that there is a deal of confusion over Polygons intentions,so i'd like to offer some clarification.
Cautionary note - I have less than my usual access to documentation and a slow internet connection so this is all based on experience and stuff I have in my laptop rather than the details of the current position.
Polygon are sitting on large profits from their activity in SXX, I believe they now have no shorts extant and have sold all their CB's at a fat profit(someone can probably confirm).
They have accumulated a significant position in CFD's equivalent to a little over 10% of the equity. A CFD is " a contract to pay the counterparty the DIFFERENCE between the current price and the price at some future date for an asset , in this case SXX shares.
Key facts , Polygon will have paid a fraction of the price of a share each for the CFD ie typically they may have paid <1%. So they could have arranged control of (about 600-700 mill) shares for maybe £0.5 million!Maybe a little more but chicken feed in their terms.
They have therefore the potential for a very substantial profit on a tiny outlay if any other bidder comes along.
OR, see this from the Slaughter and May takeover doc I have quoted before.
Appx 3 para 1.8, assuming AAL have swept up more than 75% but less than 90% of the stock
"minority shareholders have two balancing rights of lesser practical importance. First they can apply to the court for an order that the offeror MAY NOT acquire their shares(thus Polygon remain a minority holder of what they see( like you lot) as a long-term profitable mine) or MUST ALTER THE TERMS ON OFFER.(my italics)
So polygon have possibly two ways of making a fat profit on next to no outlay.

Hi folks , probably my last , brief post here, sorry to say my fears about SXX, first expressed in July/August 2018 !! and repeated frequently since,have come to pass. Today's news is about as final as it gets , and as I set out a few days ago (in a post now deleted?)the conclusion will be 5.5p per share paid to those who hold, in a couple of months.
I hope those of you with enough cash or revenue to INVEST and the stomach to recover from losses will do so . Sensible investment over time is the only (honest ) way to improve your personal finance and to provide for your descendants.
I am currently in Arrecife about to set sail for an island tour so will not be posting for some weeks by which time this board will be dead/dormant, though I will continue to post elsewhere on this site
So GLA who use this as a learning experience and subsequently prosper, it may seem improbable now, but time, patience, effort and commonsense can achieve what you wish for in the future.
MY very best wishes

casa

FFC Absolutely. My agenda is to make money from my investments.

LTV24 WE must assume that AAL see an opportunity to snap up a very good long term revenue earner in a " green" product , moving them away from a business sector under increasing pressure from the environmental lobby, with a relatively short(by mining standards) time to delivery , in a stable country with a sound legal jurisdiction , a major currency and willing buyers. Many of these things are rare for mining projects. There are risks, but somewhat less than some of the alternative projects they will have evaluated. If it comes off it's a big-time winner, if not, well they still have a multi channel business. Given that, why let anyone else share the pot , if you can why not clear the table - that's what they are doing(or at least proposing).Their is no sympathy in business .

Guys AAL have shareholders too and they would expect their company to drive the hardest deal possible. In fact AAL have a statutory duty to seek the most cost effective deal they can ,that's just what they are doing.

IBAB it is really worth understanding the bond market. I quoted James Carville on this board a while ago who said "if there was re-incarnation I'd like to come back as the bond market - you can intimidate everybody" and its true, the price of a company's bonds tell you more about it's prospects than the SP - though to be fair the SP is also a very good guide - if only more would take note!
If you want to learn more I recommend this as a starter
https://www.pimco.co.uk/en-gb/resources/education/everything-you-need-to-know-about-bonds/

have fun!!