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A surprisingly good result for IAG, 92% take up of rights and more than double applications for excess shares .That suggests to me that the SP will hold up reasonably well from here , unless, of course the general news re Covid and the economy gets worse.

snap!

Todays announcement means that the SP should be around 55p today .That's based on the calculation of(3x132+10x32=710/13= 54.6)In reality because the discount is so high(41%)the market may take fright and price the stock substantially lower, unless the view is that this package , including the debt elements is sufficient to see Rolls through the crisis.

The closing price each day is set by the uncrossing trade, UT in the trades list and normally at about 16.35pm.Todays closing price is therefore 94.4p

Thanks Shandy... that's helpful and interesting.
Based on those figures and assuming the half year figure of £200k in royalties for Europe is correct implies sales of ~£1.6 -2.0 mill this year. As to the US , I assume the NPV figure represents earnings from sales over a ten-year period(when I did cost projections that the period we used).So £80 mill pa( there is a discount factor for future sales but in a no inflation era it must be tiny) for from the US dwarfs the current European sales revenue and illustrates the sort of bump the SP might(should?) get from a signed US deal.

HI shandy.... where did you get that figure from? I was puzzled that latest results seemed to show only £200k for the half year in Europe, despite the " 50% higher..." hype. I posed a question on that number at the recent presentation but it wasn't answered.

The article suggests that the US represents 70% of a ~$3bill market, BUT the $1billion quoted would be shared between STX and their partner and I suspect that the partner will take the lions share , so perhaps $100mill pa to STX, still pretty good for a £150 mill MC company.

Mara... A number of data suppliers adjust historical figures to reflect the RI. In this case it is being treated as a 3 for 2 stock split.

Cala.... What will emerge though is how many shares have been left with the underwriters and if that number is significant (ie >15/20%)then there will be downward pressure on the SP . Underwriters don't want to hold stock , they want the juicy fees for underwriting the issue and bank on their city knowledge and contacts to ensure that the issue is priced to " get away" ie that almost all II holders take up their allotment. If the underwriters ae left holding stock , they will , first, seek to unload in bulk to willing buyers(the Qataris but only up to 30%, maybe some others who might buy stock as a hedge for a short position)and if that fails they will attempt to drip feed stock into the market , without scaring the pigeons. That in the present febrile climate will be far from easy , underwriting is money for nothing in a bull market it is tightrope walking in todays market.

HI Value.... - yes you're right , the number I quoted does refer to the JL group not specifically Waitrose. This mornings sign of their confusion comes in the proposal to give up half of their Oxford street store to make.........(unwanted?)central London offices!

I'v just finished the investor call with the company where I asked the question "is the value of the US upfront likely to exceed the China deal" to which the answer was a fairly unambiguous "yes"and the mood music was that STX could be looking for an upfront in the tens of millions and sufficient to fund them comfortably through to profit.

NO I'm not referring to the Prince song but to today's management announcement from Waitrose (remember them?)
Among other things it says under their Digital first banner , that they expect "online sales to account for 60% of revenues post Covid ....".
If ever we saw an indication of how at least one supermarket sees the trend there it is.

A few more observations from today's RNS .
A minor note in the RNS stated that STX had received £0.2 mill from Norgine for the half year(cf £0.6mill for the last FY as per annual report) which doesn't seem to square with the quote "Norgine grew net sales of Feraccru® in Europe by 50% compared with the second half of 2020, and the first half sales in 2020 have matched the sales for the whole of 2019".
I know that STX say they receive between 25 and 40 % of Norgine sales revenue so there appears to be an inconsistency.
However if we accept at face value a European sales revenue of £0.4 -0.5 mill pa and growing, for a product serving the UK and Germany , with perhaps max revenues of ~£1mill pa in those markets and another £0.5-0.7 mill for the rest of Europe, a long run sales related income of approaching £2 mill pa in Europe.
The US market is half as big as the EU 300 mill pop versus 600 mill, but healthcare there is far more expensive and I would expect STX's potential partners would be looking for several times EU revenues. It may be conceivable that STX could earn £10 mill pa or more in the US and maybe £5 mill in the vast , but less cash-driven markets in China.
AT best, based on those figures, I can find recurring revenues of the order of £20 mill pa , and of course the significant one-off payments associated with sales agreements.
Nevertheless that to me suggests a maximum medium term market cap , with a p/e of 10-15 reaching maybe £250 mill or just about twice the present value.
Am I missing something?
In my defence STX is a very small part of my portfolio and doesn't get as much attention as the rest so there may be (and I hope there is ) a glaring flaw in my analysis.

Sorry Jenn that's nonsense. The FTSE 100 is a market cap based index.The rights issue has just raised IAG's market cap to £6.5 billion. the likelihood of IAG being expelled from the index is lower than mine of winning the lottery(and I don't play!)

Yesterdays RNS was interesting because it said:
"the impact of operational leverage in the retail business, suggest, given current trends, a full year EBITDA result for Ocado GROUP (my caps) of at least £40m. So at least this year retail will provide a positive revenue greater than solutions net expenditure?
That may of course not recur.

The key takeaway is this

" We and our advisers have engaged with multiple companies, a number of which have signed confidentiality agreements, several have submitted non-binding offers and more detailed negotiations have been undertaken with a number of parties. We remain confident of securing a partner in 2020 and have recently ordered launch stocks of US packs of Accrufer® which should be available for sale by around the end of 2020."
As most here know an agreement in the US is fundamental to STX's long term profitability. The US market is large and crucially has the means and incentive to pay for a much simpler and equally effective treatment to injectables .
Another perhaps short=lived bounce today but the company is on the threshold of being a long term profit making business.

Hi folks , I have been invested here for a few years now and while today's RNS is positive it is almost irrelevant to my investment decision.Almost, that is, except for the fact that this years events have accelerated Ocado retail's move to positive Ebitda. The switch to M & S Is a good one and will I Believe offer a larger national customer base than Waitrose. The development of further CFC's is limited by the mechanics of construction and fit-out and will grow capacity but not nearly as quickly as the company would like causing new customer acquisition to be bottlenecked , with a waiting list of ~1 million .
In addition the margins to be made by retail will always be slim , supermarkets have traditionally earned low single digits revenues on multi billion annual sales. Ocado retails margins will be similarly slim, though todays RNS says annual ebitda for the GROUP will be ~£40 mill and that is the important point . It looks as though the company will have turned overall profitable as a result of the Covid -driven move to online.
However my real reason for investing here is Ocado solutions and specifically International solutions, and even more specifically the Kroger deal.
The first half results showed invoiced fees for international solutions of ~£74 mill and uninvoiced cash fees of £219 mill at the half year . A runrate of £500 mill per annum in fees is likely and remember Kroger intend to build out 30+ sites to service their $122 billion dollar revenue stream.
IMV Ocado solutions are less than 2 years away from a billion dollar revenue stream,on which the margins will be markedly greater than those available to Ocado retail. Today's figures are welcome and despite the SP rise(which I suspect is temporary)will start to make the share's P/E look a little more reasonable (though still at Amazon-like levels!)but only when the solutions revenues mature will the SP realise full value.

Anybody who owned IAG shares at close of business on Friday will now have the right to buy 3 new shares at approx 84p for every 2 shares they hold.
SO when you check your account you will find an entry saying"nil Paid rights" equal to 1.5 times the number of shares you hold .Eg you own 1000 shares there will be 1500 nil paid rights in your account.
By the appointed a date you have to decide what to do.
Your choices are :

to "take up " the rights ie pay to buy the additional shares at 84p each providing the cash yourself
to sell the rights -each right is worth the difference between the current sp (~135p and the rights price 84p multiplied by 1.5, so roughly 75p as I write)
or to sell a proportion of the rights to raise cash to buy new shares at the rights price.
YOU must choose to do something otherwise the rights may lapse and you have thrown money away.
AS I said last week ,this mornings price opening was pretty much a direct reflection of the issue. The absence of a sharp fall indicates that the market regards the RI as fairly priced and likely to be fully( or nearly fully taken up ).
IF the SP rise then the value of the rights will rise in proportion and vice versa .

IAG 's intention to raise 2.75 bn euros was first announced in an RNS on 24 July.Sp at that time 200p, market cap almost exactly £4bn.
Since then IAG and the underwriters have no doubt argued about the percentage discount needed first to get the underwriters to commit, and the level of discount needed to ensure a successful raise (in normal terms that would mean ~90% take up)
On 31 July IAG published an RNS repeating the intention and saying that Qatar who hold 25% were committed to taking up their allotment in full, ie about 700 mill euros worth.
Since then the underwriters will have quizzed other significant holders to establish their position and willingness to participate.
Based on that the details of the issue have been thrashed out. In all probability IAG knew from July that they would have to offer a discount of 20%+ to get the issue away, and the city also knew that.
The fact that the issue was priced at a 35% discount and the SP DID NOT fall sharply, and has not done so since the initial announcement, implies that no major holders were either terribly surprised by the terms, nor overly dismayed.
On that basis it is highly probable that the SP will not fall to much less than 130p on Monday, nor, absent major market instability, will it fall much more until the news of the takeup of the issue emerges in a couple of weeks time.
Then , only a serious shortfall in takeup , (ie <80% ) would cause a further SP fall.
Beyond that SP reaction is hard to predict, given the volatility of the current global environment. BUT it is the case that IAG will have available cash of ~10bn euros and quarterly operating costs of 200 mn euros, so can in theory survive for several years (though of course creditors could pull the plug much sooner in the vent of prolonged Covid related issues).. In that event I have little doubt that the UK government would step in , and although the company would survive , we shareholders would be wiped out.
I am willing to take that risk with a portion of my funds , in the hope that my investment will grow substantially over a 2/3 year period.

Anyone who held shares at close of business yesterday will have rights in proportion to their holding. The price at close of business includes the "bonus" of rights to buy at a cheaper price.
On Monday the shares will trade "ex-rights" ie with NO rights to buy at a discount.Because of that the share price will automatically fall to around 130 p. Any difference from that will be the normal market sentiment/company sentiment which causes prices to move.
If you don't understand that I suggest your next urgent investment is a second hand copy of the Investors Chronicle "beginners guide to investment" or the Financial Times "Guide to the financial pages" or similar available on-line or a local charity bookshop.