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Quady strictly A "concert party" in stock exchange terms is any group of shareholders,.
No single entity may hold more than 30% of the targets shares but the group could between them do so.
BHP could if they choose ,buy up to 30% of the outstanding stock in the market
The Ecuadorian government has , presumably the single driving objective of getting its mining assets into production and earning tax revenues for its people, they are sensible enough to know that, in the hands of a "major" with enormous financial firepower this is more probable than with a junior minor which will have to seek very substantial funding from lenders or investors to achieve that.
My expectation would be that a major will own and develop all or most of the assets , which one it is depends entirely on which is prepared to compensate the other most generously .
In terms of your last question about how the various blocks of shares would be acquired I am afraid I resort to the simple but obvious response that negotiations which achieve a suitable outcome for both parties will take place. The intended buyer has the advantage here, in that they can conduct negotiations in secret and the prospective sellers need not know at what price others capitulate . Whether big or small ALL shareholders have a price point at which they will sell.
If your expectations of the long term true value of SOLG'S assets is anywhere near what you believe then any buyer has the incentive to pay top dollar and still make a handsome return.
I don't ever make predictions of the likely price at which shares will sell, either in the market or in a takeover because nobody has sufficient info to do other than guess, my investment here is on the basis that the likelihood that the price will exceed the cost of my shares is high.

Hello Quady . I note your very comprehensive analysis here but feel duty bound to point out that any takeover deal would benefit ALL participants - your comment
"You require a lot of companies to come together, to form a concert group. For what purpose I say. So that they can devide(sic) Solgold up between them."
The purpose is clear - it is to make a profit. In the markets the ONLY commodity that is relevant is cash. If a deal is seen to be in the best(financial) interests of the key players it will take place.

Madrugada I'm sure the prospects here will dawn on you soon!

TTI Do you really think that lenders would cough up ~£2bill to a company whose own shareholders refuse to inject half of that sum. The debt raise ABSOLUTELY depends on a successful RI.

Casaj In answer to your question, if the RI is voted down RR goes bust.

Arithmetically the SP at "ex-rights" day (which is 27oct not 23rd as some have posted)should equal
3X closing price in pence on that day +10X32p/13
at todays price that would be 3x210+10x32/13=73p but if you substitute the 27 oct closing price you will get the OP on the 28th
Price action thereafter is subject to all the usual vagaries, but there is no evidence to suggest that subsequent to the recent sharp rally it will fall dramatically absent further bad news.

Sneaky is a condition of employment at GS!

Note post title - that's what this is, though it is based on many years of investment activity and a reasonable knowledge of both the mechanics and mentality of the city.
When a share price in which I'm invested move sharply I like to know why, 'cos almost without exception there are underlying reasons, so here goes.

The rights issue has proved problematic for RR , two of the main underwriter GS and MS were so concerned that they'd be left holding the baby that they scaled down their commitment, BNP HSBC and others stepped in .The consequence of that is that the RI was priced at bargain basement levels to be sure that it "got away" , underwriters drive a very hard bargain when they know they might be on the hook to sweep up hundreds of millions of unwanted shares. RR had no choice but to "over egg" the issue to be absolutely sure of substantial take up.
The wider city recognise this and now see the chance for a quick buck , if you're a hedge fund or investment bank , or a longer term return if you're an investment manager. Hence sharp buying pressure this week by those intending to take up all of the accompanying rights
All this suggests that the RI will be fully subscribed and may well be heavily over- subscribed ie many may seek excess shares.
That presents RR with another problem, they can't legally increase the amount of shares on offer, nor would they as they know this is a give-away price , so they have to structure any excess allocation ,and remember there will be those both II and PI who see this as a chance to get out at a profit/small loss and /or will not take up their allocation . What RR want is a stable share register of long-term holders so do they fill excess requests from the bottom up (ie small holders first ) or top down hoping that some of the bigger players will sit tight for an eventual re-rate of the SP. They will be taking soundings to see how the wind is blowing.
So as a PI what to do?
I intend take up my allocation and bid for excess, unless, depending on the pattern of holding RNS's over the next few weeks , the majority of the buyers are hedgies looking for a quick turn. I will be more likely to commit if they are predominantly asset managers , buying on their "own book" ie insurance companies, the Vanguards or Blackrocks...., a strategic player, turn around investors etc...
But as ever DYOR and that includes shooting down my thesis , if you have other facts , opinions ,..... I have no problem with constructive criticism, so fire away.

Your post title is an oxymoron.

It's worth remembering that a formal offer for the company whether accepted or not, will drive the price up , sharply at first , to something pretty close to the offer price, falling back if the offer is rejected , but generally leaving the SP at a semi-permanent plateau. One consequence of this is that those who wish to sell can do so at an elevated , if, short term, price, those who prefer to wait for a greater long-term price appreciation can also do so.

Good work Chilting - that invalidates most of the assumptions in my post yesterday, and makes the situation for OCDO a good deal more tricky. It look as though TH lee has stable of assets worth $10 billion plus and If the patent dispute goes to American courts then, as recent history illustrates, the American company wins almost all the time, regardless of the merits of the case. If the markets already know this then it explains the sharp SP fall, if not then I think holders might be in for a worrying few weeks/months.

LSE site shows plenty of trades until close , uncrossing trade was at 13.9p.My FT account confirms.

SEE my posts at 14.34 and 14.51 GS have Substantially INCREASED their position by using CFD's.

While I take no view on whether or not Ocado should seek to solve the Autostore problem by buying them off or buying them out, it is worth putting the issue in context. At the moment OCDO's market cap is >£18bill. Autostore appear to be a private company and on Linked in is describes as having 180 employees, that makes it a small business by most measures , it's hard to get a handle on sales or profits but I would hazard a guess that annual sales are well below £1bill and profits below £100 mill. That gives a notional company value of little more (possibly much less) than £1bill
That means two things , one is that for Ocado to "buy off" the legal claim would be comparatively inexpensive and to buy the whole company equally so. It may well be that the CEO of Autostore sees this as his pension fund as he sails off up a fjord to shoot polar bears.
As previously stated , I sold out here until the mini market panic subsides, I fully expect to buy back in in the near term , perhaps missing the short-term bottom(as usual)

The key is to look at box 7, top right hand corner which tells you the percentage of stock that GS control ie 6.65%. The elements of that control are shown in that line ie 0.58% directly owned that is they own the shares, and 6.07% "through financial instruments", these are shares which they have an option to buy , probably by a CFD (contract for difference), which is an agreement with another holder to buy at a pre-determined price, most likely above the Strike price , ie the price when the deal was agreed. The actual details of how much GS have paid for that is secret but will be a fraction of the SP , maybe few percent. It is a "highly leveraged " to use the Americanism , punt on the rise continuing.

Goldman have , in fact, taken a series of LONG CFD's , that is they have options to buy if the price INCREASES. Their position now represents more than 120 mill shares.

Almost ALL naked shorts lose money . The majority of short positions are taken by hedge fund "quants" who use them to balance a a long position or a "long short pair " or a long bond position or a convertible bond position . If you don't understand any of that you should NOT take out a short until you have read a book, perhaps "Mcmillan on options" or "The options traders guide to probability volatility and timing" by Jay Kaeppell. By the time you have read and understood those you may well realise that shorting stocks is not the road to a quick fortune.

Paul You must hold stock at close of business 27 OCT

While the recent rise in the SP is phenomenal, it is worth remembering that it will have a very limited effect on the post-rights price. At the time of the capital raise RNS on 1 oct the TERP was around 55p, even after a 100% rise since then the new TERP at the current price is only about 61p. Those who hold through the RI should remember that

There is likely to be a flood of RNS 's as II's reposition themselves to deal with the RI. They are often not very clear as to what is actually going on , sometimes deliberately so. Hedge funds will take positions on either side as volatility increases, volatility is their friend , they need to take advantage of rapid movement to earn their fees. In the first RNS of the day it looks like Capital group , large west coast USA hedgie has loaned some of their substantial holding to another entity which is going short. As has been discussed on other boards , most short positions are balanced by access to an equity holding or a CFD. The overall thrust of the RNS's will give a clue as to how positive city reaction to RR's chances of a successful fund raise is.