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....as my girlfriend says!

Arithmetic correct , analysis sound, assumption plausible, outcome unknown .

But that's why I am long here.

Arithmetic correct , analysis sound, assumption plausible, outcome unknown .

But that's why I am long here.

chairman's quote from todays meeting:
"The board took the reluctant but unanimous decision to ask shareholders for support. This comprehensive package provides considerable headroom, even in a reasonable worst-case scenario, where possible subsequent infection waves result in very low flying activity through 2021 and 2022.”

For those of you convinced that shorting RR at this time is a good idea it might be worth noting that Institutional shorts, having risen steadily through the year , peaked at about 2% at the beginning of October and have now fallen to less than 0.5%, only Sandbar asset management are currently short to any degree and they have been extricating themselves pretty quickly
It does suggest that those who are better informed and more market literate(ie they understand that the post rights fall is " Delta neutral") than some here, recognise that a live RR short is unwise at this time.

I don't currently hold here , but it is worth clarifying a bit of patent law.
Simply put, patent disputes are resolved in Court unless the two sides agree a settlement before or during the case. For the accused company to be prevented from using the technology in dispute the accuser would be required to seek an injunction and the courts would have to grant it . So far as I am aware an injunction has not yet been sought, nor I believe has the jurisdiction which a case is to be heard ,agreed . So I suspect that the article referenced in this thread is erroneous ,notably , it makes no mention of an injunction, its having been confirmed nor its terms, ie duration , breadth, etc . Were such an injunction to be granted I have no doubt OCDO would instantly appeal and the injunction would , in all probability be suspended pending the outcome of the appeal.
That is not to say that the matter is unimportant to OCDO, it will cost them time and money , whether or not they win.
I remain on the sidelines.

Typo Line 6 should read "£2billion plus..
Note to self - hold down shift key when pressing £ key.

WADR Poleaxe while I applaud your patience in trying to explain the RI , on the issue the RI price and ratio you are wrong. As I pointed out in a post a few days ago the structure of the RI is very much in the gift of the underwriters, in this case they have played a blinder and more than earned their fee. Since the announcement of the RI, RR's market cap has risen by well over £2 billion, add that to the £2 billion to be pocketed directly as a result of rights and the further

32billion plus from the debt issue, which again I pointed out a few days ago is absolutely dependent on a successful RI and RR's asset base will be more than £6billion stronger than last month. You may be right that in cash terms the RI could have been structured in any number of ways but psychologically this one has proved to be a masterstroke.

From all the available data it looks like almost 60% of RR shares are held by investment banks, hedge funds, private equity on their own book. That is a significant block of shares which will not be part of a selling frenzy post-rights . Other than the accounting adjustment for the RI next week I don't expect a sharp fall, nor for that matter a sharp rise.I don't do SP predictions but my research suggests that much cleverer(or at least better informed!) people than me are holding this, as stock or options, for the medium term and expecting to profit from that strategy

The other casa - You have been advocating waiting till post rights to buy in since the SP was 113p.Buying then and taking the rights would have given you a post-rights price of ~40p and a nice 100% profit ! Perhaps a serious strategy review is in order?

Goldman have sold about 19mill shares, but have taken an option on about 10 million , so position slightly down and slightly more weighted to options rather than direct holdings.
Blackrock have bought around 28mill shares but have reduced their options by about 10 million so overall position slightly up and slightly more direct ownership . It may be that some part of the deal was direct between the two , but not all of it.
For clarity "option " is a catch all term to mean CFD, Call option, spread bet or a direct formal agreement between two parties OFF BOOK ,but still reportable

For every 3 RR shares you hold you can buy 10 more at 32p.
Say for calculation purpose your holding is 300, that entitles you to buy 1000 new shares , next week you will see an entry on your account which will look something like "NIL-PAID rights 1000" priced at about 40p . They are your "shares " to do with as you like you can use them as a token to buy 1000 new shares at 32p each , or sell them all to add £400 to your account , or sell say , 400 of them to earn £160 which you then use towards the purchase of the other 600 rights (cost £192) . Actual cost to you £32.
You can play around with the numbers any way you like on the same basis.
Caution check the arithmetic, it's early in the morning and I'm only on my first cup of coffee!

Hi guys I have seen the webinar and its well worth a view, the kit seems both effective and flexible for use in many circumstances. I have subsequently been doing a bit of research and have so far established that there are about 440 nuclear reactors operating in the world with 50 in construction, over 600 >Biosafety level 3 laboratories in the US alone and almost 13000 chemical plants in the US . It doesn't take a genius to work out that the target market for this technology is tens, maybe hundreds of thousands of locations. I did ask if Kromek were seeking to sell the products on the basis of pro-active monitoring of such facilities or only as a retrospective solution to mapping the extent of accidents, but have as yet had no reply. My own view is that the former is most sensible (and profitable!)and if that is the case there is a potential revenue stream in the tens of millions. Quite possibly a fundamental scale breakthrough for the company.

Thanks Tomo that's really helpful.

Thanks Minde Your post illustrates that the 3xRR short will reflect that the notional SP against which it is measured is based on a purchase and take up of the rights immediately (so no delay in the RI shares being available for trade as for actual holders) and that the standard TERP calculation is applied - which currently gives a 77p price. That price is then deemed equivalent in terms of shorts(or longs) to the current SP .
As many here have been saying repeatedly over the last few weeks , the market and its makers are far too competent to offer any get rich quick schemes to take advantage of the RI.

Tomo I was planning to listen in and had submitted some questions but unfortunately the death of a friend of the family prevented me hearing the webinar. I asked whether the deployment of AARM was likely to be seen as a security measure , ie frequent monitoring of nuclear installations and "hotspots" , or mainly in response to identified leaks and emergencies ? As the answer would have a significant effect on sales , did it come up?

ALfe You are right my use of the word naked in my recent post was erroneous. I am aware of the fact that naked shorts carry a theoretically infinite risk . The failure however was not due to my research, it was merely a poor choice of word , I did in fact make my living for several years trading options , so I know how geared positions work.
My purpose has been to point out that Shorting, other than as part of a balanced position is exceptionally high risk and not appropriate for almost everybody who reads this board.
I said a while ago, here, that RR shares are now trading as effectively a short dated call option and while that has certainly increased volatility , that will almost certainly end on ex-rights day when RR shares will go back to acting like a FTSE 100 member, with it's beta of around 1.5
For any of those thinking that Ratty's post describing 3 or 4 10% moves in RR's SP post rights, is possible, that beta figure quoted above means that it would require the same number of > 6 % moves in the FTSE, ALL down and all in a short space of time. I think the probabilities of that are low.
Shorts are exceptionally profitable, the companies that offer geared investment are required by law to remind customers that 75%+ of then will lose money, so the profitability is theirs not the punters.

ratty I don't really mind if you lose money , that's your choice. What I regard as unacceptable is your frequent recommendations that others copy you and your suggestion that its easy money. VERY FEW naked shorts make money , most shorts are used by clever people as a hedge against a long position ,or against convertible bonds. It is clear that you have embarked on a high risk call with very little understanding of the consequences.
You are partially right , it's not rocket science, but it is complex, which is why I have calculated that your post rights break even must be about 52p. To be in 300% profit you need a SP in the 30's, I really don't think that is likely to happen , it may, in which case well done, but it is much more probable to fail , in which case I reckon you have blown well over half of the 10k you had at the start.

Ratty's concurrent posts illustrates that he STILL doesn't get that the ex rights drop does him NO good whatsoever.

Trading.... I am afraid you are making the mistake of assuming Ratty is telling the truth and knows what he is doing . Examination of his initial posts and HIS statements on this topic on 6/7/8 OCT SUGGEST that he opened his short(value about £2k) when the SP was 150p on or before the 6th committing 20% of his portfolio value, he then claims to have topped up 6 times at SP 's from 149-199p, at SP 149p he admitted to being 40% down, by the time the SP had risen to 195p he admitted to having half his portfolio committed and was 50% down, implying he was trying to buy his way out of a hole. Given the decay element of shorts heaven knows what his current position is but he either keeps on feeding the wolves or they eat him .
I hope for his sake he is lying or exaggerating his bravado.
I suggest we start a fund to repatriate him from wherever he is now and despite my harsh words I'll contribute!