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Those idiots at Goldman Sachs have just gone and bought another 25 mill shares in RR . What are they playing at, when the experts here keep telling them the SP is about to crash!!

MR Bel.... Don't worry , I've looked at your posts elsewhere , you're never right!

Yeah , after a while almost all chart suppliers "back correct " the historical share prices to reflect the current no. of shares in issue , it's just that they don't all do it at the same time. It means that when looking at historical prices you get a reflection of what the SP would have been with the current no of shares in issue, not what it actually was at the time.

Almost correct , the underwriters will seek to place the rump of 375mill shares with institutional buyers and as a last resort buy them themselves. So they will not be flooded on to the open market just yet , but more likely dripped out gently over the next few months in such a way as not to depress the SP . Amazingly enough, the underwriters and large II's have been through all of this before and understand how to manage the market, unlike some here!

Ratty I admire your commitment to your point of view, but am amazed that you appear to be making the same mistake again, the text below is taken from a post I made on another thread and sets out a couple of ways how hedge funds, investment banks etc use shorting to create win-win situations. I hope you can learn something from it . if not then good luck to you ,you're going to need it!

"I posted last Friday saying that very few shorts are held naked by hedge funds or others, Vivv challenged me to back up my observation and as yet I haven't done so. BUT here are a couple of short strategies that I am fairly sure are in play. First, note that the percentage short shot up on 27 Oct immediately the GM voted in favour. That is because a buy rights -go short ,win-win strategy presented .There will be funds which have sold short and then acquired the nil paid rights (which are essentially a highly leveraged upward play on the RR SP)so if the RR share price rises , the nil paid rise by the same cash amount but a much larger percentage, if the SP falls the short goes in to profit. With an appropriate algorithm a recurring series of win win positions is created, and by the way, constantly resetting the position after profit adds to volatility and increasing profits. If I am right (and I have seen it before) the volatility, volume and percentage of shorts will fall soon.
Another highly probable strategy is a long:short pair with GE , so you sell RR short and buy GE , if RR falls , instant profit , if RR collapses, the short wins and GE long also wins, as the primary competitor is taken out. If however, for example , a vaccine comes along and the RR SP rises sharply , no problem, because the GE share also rises sharply offsetting any loss on the short, again software and strategy can create no lose situations.
There are countless other means of employing short positions with none of the risks borne by, and recently inflicted on, PI shorters."

Investin... You arrived here on 30 Oct when the SP was 68p, your opinion was then and has remained STRONG SELL . SP now over £1.
I have thought long and hard(OK that's a lie)but on reflection I will not be taking your carefully thought out advice, I will hold.

Correction , it looks like the Norges buy might have been cum rights, and they are almost certain to have taken up the rights , they are the classic long term buy and hold investors. Perhaps they don't know about tomorrows crash either, as they only hold a little over $1trillion in assets , that's over 1.4% of ALL the stocks in the WORLD. Somebody should tell them what a mistake they're making!

The three RNS mean the following ;
Norges bank (ie the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund) have bought about 60 mill shares, apparently ex-rights.
Goldmans have converted some options into shares and sold some, but not all of them .
Harris have sold about 5 mill shares but still hold about 90 mill.
All numbers reflect the fact that the rights are not yet introduced to the market , but they exist and everybody knows they exist so there is no impending collapse in the SP.

First point , calculate how many rights you were entitled to and the current value (less cost) of those rights and tell them that your STARTING position for compensation is that. Second, tell them you are reporting them to the Financial Ombudsman, third tell them you will write to the financial help pages of the major newspapers, Times, telegraph etc , finally make and keep a note of all communications, screen prints if online, date and time of any phone calls, as they are required by law to keep them, exact wording if you can remember it .
They have already admitted liability you are in a very strong position.

I posted last Friday saying that very few shorts are held naked by hedge funds or others, Vivv challenged me to back up my observation and as yet I haven't done so. BUT here are a couple of short strategies that I am fairly sure are in play. First, note that the percentage short shot up on 27 Oct immediately the GM voted in favour. That is because a buy rights -go short ,win-win strategy presented .There will be funds which have sold short and then acquired the nil paid rights (which are essentially a highly leveraged upward play on the RR SP)so if the RR share price rises , the nil paid rise by the same cash amount but a much larger percentage, if the SP falls the short goes in to profit. With an appropriate algorithm a recurring series of win win positions is created, and by the way, constantly resetting the position after profit adds to volatility and increasing profits. If I am right (and I have seen it before) the volatility, volume and percentage of shorts will fall soon.
Another highly probable strategy is a long:short pair with GE , so you sell RR short and buy GE , if RR falls , instant profit , if RR collapses, the short wins and GE long also wins, as the primary competitor is taken out. If however, for example , a vaccine comes along and the RR SP rises sharply , no problem, because the GE share also rises sharply offsetting any loss on the short, again software and strategy can create no lose situations.
There are countless other means of employing short positions with none of the risks borne by, and recently inflicted on, PI shorters.

Yeah really worrying, even Goldman Sachs with $1.8 TRILLION assets under management. won't be expecting tomorrows crash!!

I always do my research , and 50% was deemed to be acceptable, not necessarily good . My concerns are based on sample size . The defined end-point for the trial was planned to be 164 events(ie patients who contract the virus) , of which a hoped for 50% would have had the vaccine and the virus ie 82 cases. It is the case that higher numbers of cases don't just give a linear improvement in confidence but rather a geometric improvement.
My research also includes broker notes from Goldmans, Morgan Stanley and Deutsche bank.

A warning , the vaccine news was IMV VERY premature. If you want facts here they are
THE Phase 3 trial consisted of over 40k individuals given either the vaccine or a placebo, presumably in a roughly 50:50 ratio.
Of that 40k 94 have contracted the virus,
within that 94 , THE MAJORITY had been given the placebo,
ie less than 47 , maybe only a little over 30 had the vaccine and the virus
of which ~90% (27?) did not become ill.
But remember in normal circs 90% of people who test positive are either asymptomatic or show only minor symptoms.
Once the markets digest that and get over today' s hysteria I could see a fall back in indices.
Accordingly I have unloaded half of my RR shares during the melt up this pm and will hold the rest for the longer term .
As ever DYOR and GLA

Vivv remember the majority of short positions are to hedge a long, I know that at least one of the larger positions runs a long:short strategy . Only foolish PI's hold a naked short.

Arsenal I don't trade bulletin board insults , I seek to offer useful input in a polite manner.

Arsenal ....

https://www.sfo.gov.uk/category/news-releases/
for the absence of doubt that is the Serious Fraud Office, not a newspaper!

Sorry guys you are missing the point see
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-garuda-indonesia-court/former-garuda-indonesia-ceo-jailed-for-eight-years-for-bribery-idUKKBN22K1YV
Note this para:
In 2017 Rolls-Royce agreed to pay authorities more than $800 million to settle charges after an investigation by the U.S. Justice Department and Britain’s Serious Fraud Office into alleged bribery of officials in six countries in schemes that lasted more than a decade.
And note
https://news.bloomberglaw.com/corporate-governance/bombardier-falls-as-u-k-confirms-probe-of-suspected-bribery
The matter is again live.

I don't do daily/hourly/ minutely watching of the SP of stocks I hold , but for info, the last couple of days falls are (from my city contacts ) largely to do with nervousness over any fallout from the SFO probe into Bombardier. I won't bore you all with the facts except to say that RR were one of the companies implicated in a bribery deal for Bombardier planes sold to Garuda airlines.

It looks as though very few, if any, services are offering anything other than a straight take up or sale of rights. I applied for excess rights as I have done on a number of previous occasions for a variety of RI's and was told not available. That suggests that the RI will be almost fully subscribed or to join with the conspiracy theorists , that any excess rights have ready and willing II buyers.

Further to my post on Tuesday , this mornings RNS shows that Causeway another large , privately-owned insti. is up to over 8% of RR , that means that the top ten now hold over 50% between them, they know enough to know that unloading their stock immediately after the RI is complete would drive the price down , so they ain't doing it. Those of you hoping for a sharp and/or prolonged fall will IMV be disappointed.
For further proof consider the position of GS . Three months ago they scaled down their commitment to underwrite the RI because they were afraid of being left with a rump of unallocated shares priced at 32p. Now they have built up a position worth £600 mill. at a price of more than double that. One must assume that they think something has changed , and they are right , what has changed is the long-term viability of the company. The addition of almost £6billion in accessible capital , the slimming down of costs and the progress towards vaccines/better Covid treatments and tests and the recognition that more than half of RR's business is still carrying on have almost certainly removed the possibility of RR's collapse . I cannot predict what the SP will do in the near future but a sharp and or prolonged fall is IMV highly unlikely.