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Sorry JR didn't intend to sound smug. I don't know whether the SP will rise further before ST2 and TBH I have no idea what the SP reaction will be once ST2 is announced. It's just that over the years I have learned that caution is , for me , a more successful mindset, than optimism. I usually define myself as a pragmatic optimist!
At the risk of (yet again!) offending all fully invested LTH I will repeat that I think the chance of a ST2 outcome which is sharply negative for the SP is still significant, and as time passes that risk does not diminish. A cynic(like me) might suggest that potential lenders/funders may see a benefit from protracted negotiations , as each day that passes heightens the pressure on the SXX board to accept a deal which benefits the lenders far more then the company.
So I wait(and wait!) until I know exactly what financial terms SXX will go forward with, then regardless of the SP , even if it is sharply higher than now,I will make a judgement , and am happy to eat humble pie , if I've missed a surge , so long as its served with the cream of an assured future!!

JR
I have consistently said I will wait for the ST2 announcement and decide then, you and anyone else can feel free to gloat if the SP rockets! (though I did sell in the high 30's).

Hi Avo...if that was a typo for "annoy" then the answer is no it wouldn't.I have no problem with anyone disagreeing with my position that is their prerogative, and it what makes a market !

Looks like a "fat finger", ie a trade input with an incorrect or unintended value subsequently reversed.

Update on my 07.59
From HUR' s last annual report
" Due to the nature of the Group's business, it has accumulated significant tax losses since incorporation. Upon receipt of FDP approval for the Lancaster EPS in September 2017, for tax purposes, the Group is considered to have commenced trading. Pre-trading capital expenditure of $89.2 million is carried forward at 31 December 2018 and tax relief will be available once the FDP approval is received on the remaining licences. The Group has ring fenced trading losses of $526.5 million, non-ring fenced trading losses of $7.2 million, other deductible temporary differences of $25.5 million and pre-trading expenditure of $0.8m at 31 December 2018, which have no expiry date and would be available for offset against future taxable profits.



No asset has been recognised in the Financial Statements for a potential deferred tax asset of $31.9 million (2017: $16.1 million) resulting from the effect of carried forward trading losses, after offsetting $184.4 million (2017: $141.2 million) against a deferred tax liability. The directors have concluded it is not appropriate to recognise any of the potential deferred tax asset until the EPS has begun production and hence demonstrated an ability to generate taxable profits."

From GOV.UK
"PRT was permanently zero-rated from 1 Jan 2016 "
There is a supplementary charge(SC) rate of corporation tax for oil producers which is 10% higher than the normal corporation tax rate (currently 30%) but that is abated by "ring fenced "losses
What this all means is that HUR will have no liability for PRT, And as their $526 mill of accrued tax losses is "ring fenced" they will also not be liable for any SC until their total profits exceed $526 mill.
They will therefore pay the normal corporation tax rate , of 30% ,until such time as they have consumed their $526 mill of ring fenced tax losses. by my reckoning that will , indeed, be at least three years after FOIL , maybe even five depending on Poo, lift costs and any future tax changes ,though all Government actions seem to point to a desire to milk all the oil they can from the Greater N sea area and hence a benign tax regime.

Three things on tax (not checked but all from memory-I will do the research to confirm later today)

1 HUR have ~$500 mill of expense to offset against taxes from last annual report
2 2016 budget "effectively scrapped" PRT (petroleum revenue tax),will reread details.
3 The corporation tax supplementary charge for oil and gas producers was halved from 20% to 10% in the same 2016 budget.
I believe all the above still valid.
Net effect means HUR's tax liabilities are relatively minor for at least 2/3 years.

Will research and confirm/correct later today.

Internetb.../biffa yeah if they(kerogen) hold 21.9%(thought it was more) they can acquire an extra 5 mill shares , so only a very minor dilution for a few million cash.

As extrader points out ,Kerogen have the right if (read when)CA exercise their warrants, to exercise an equivalent number to maintain their percentage holding. IIRC K have about 30% of the share capital , so that means they have rights to around 140 mill shares at 20p. Taking both together means HUR issuing around 165 mill new shares at 20p . that is effectively a ~5% dilution in return for about £33 mill. Useful working capital at a small dilution which if pro rata'd would knock about 2p off the SP.it won't stop me rebuilding a reasonable stake here.

WWG..

There is a negligible chance that the $400-600 mill " equity component"(if there is one) will be priced at a premium to the current SP. It is far more likely to be at a discount (possibly a significant discount )and the news of such a transaction would most likely drive the SP down from its current level.

There are many strategies on which short positions are based , CB arbitrage, "long/ short " pairs. and the simple belief that the SP is likely to fall in the immediate future, depending upon news.It is probable that the short activity around SXX is in large part (though not exclusively) based on the latter.The reason is obvious - regardless of engineering progress and long-term prospects ,ST2 funding is crucial. The hedgies who are short have made a judgement that the SP will fall, pending and possibly post the ST2 announcement. Thus far they have been proved correct, and, to a degree, shorting is self-fulfilling, borrowing and selling into the market creates a downward SP pressure, thus the higher the level of shorts the greater the downward SP pressure.
That pressure will be relieved when , either the shorters believe that the fall is done/overdone, or they believe that ALL of the possible bad news is "in the price", or as many here hope, the ST2 news turns out to be a little (or a lot )better than anticipated.
The SP acts as a barometer of opinion , the barometer on your wall tells of rising or falling atmospheric pressure, the SP conveys rising or falling buying pressure. While daily monitoring is futile, watching trends is useful.
At the mo. the trend after many months of falling , is finally flat.Is that a good sign? . Who knows? But it does suggest that the sellers are no longer in the ascendancy.

Roulette People ask me a reasonable question I give them an honest answer -don't read if your not interested.

ffc My posting history includes lots of posts on SXX and HUR boards 'cos they are active and interesting but I have been investing for several decades mostly in ultra boring Ftse 100 co's,US equities, Fixed interest, gold,local NE smaller co's, Victorian marine artists from the NE, ....... At the mo. I am almost entirely out of equities believing that a major correction is due, I am NOT currently in SXX and have only a small , short-term speculation in HUR .I also hold some funds and ELLA BBYB GACA and LLPC which are bonds or bond-like. If you go back in my posting history to last autumn you will see that I sold out of BT, TSCO,SMDS,AMZN,NFLX, NRR, BLT, RDSB, PSN (again)and a few more speculative smaller positions Ie BKY, SAE and SXX.None of this is a recommendation as I am extremely cautious about the general market but with cash in hand if we should "crash out" of the EU, or the £ falls sharply........

GK Not all relatively secure investments have to be producing or indeed making a profit.
My criteria are that the likelihood of secure long-term growth is high, and for SXX post ST2 I believe that prevails.While I am loath to predict the SP in the long term and don't subscribe to the £1 by xmas(this xmas , next , 2023? I feel that a 30p per share investment later this year will have grown to a 50p asset in 2/3 years (excepting a major engineering catastrophe or some other unanticipatable problem) so my 10% pa target will be comfortably achieved.
I have in the past invested in eg AMZN, and held for several years even though it was losing money while in the growth phase,because I was confident that the on-line sales model was a good one.
I bought Legal and General, Persimmon and Lloyds on the morning after the brexit vote and sold all at 40%+ two years later because I was confident that the precipitous falls were the result of market hysteria rather than logic,you may say that's trading I regard it as shrewd and rational investment for the medium term.
ALL investment has an element of risk , and a large investment in a single company magnifies that risk (one basket full of eggs) I manage risk by diversification , so a single investment will have minimal impact either negative or positive , but of course I need to get it right more often than not , that doesn't mean I need to get it right every time.

FFC, Scot... I am sure I am guilty of a superiority complex!I have my own views on why that is so, but yours may differ!!!
But seriously,I really do aim to contribute here in a positive way, and I do take the risk of telling people what I think about the SXX share price and where it may go, in that I am not alone , there are many dozens who contribute here and the vast majority have only positive views(not always soundly based) to offer. So yes, I have tried to add some weight to my views as a counterbalance to the sheer volume of excessive optimism.
ffc you are right that I will wait until ST2 is clear and I don't mind if that means I pay 20/30p+. I 'm not here to make a ten bag fortune but to make a decent profit , !0% pa is my target for my investments and NO losses is my underlying aim.(which I freely admit I don't always achieve!)
I have read much investment material and still the most profound IMV is this from Benjamin Graham

"An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises SAFETY of principal and an ADEQUATE return" (my caps)
His unstated opinion , is I believe, that anything else is more gamble than investment.

Applying that to SXX means that after ST2 funding is in place , any market cap of up to,say,£1.5 bill (implying an SP of around 30p) IMV meets those criteria.
I will invest then, and hold indefinitely,unless or until some further event or circumstance arises which changes the picture, in that event I will reconsider and act accordingly(I will also state publicly here when/why/if I change my mind) .WADR I think it is poor strategy to replace constant monitoring of an investment with blind faith, and I politely suggest that some here are guilty of that.
Genuine apols If that still sounds arrogant ,I can only offer the defence that it is my prose style.

Sheps re your 19.20 post last night.
SXX is in a unique position in that , a very large proportion of its equity is held by PI's . Estimates seem to be homing in on 70/80k + of PI holders with anything up to a similar percentage of the share base.
That situation will not be the same if/when SXX becomes a multi billion pound company. CF and his board recognise that to function effectively the company need a share base in which something of the order of 50% is held institutionally.
If you wonder why that should be the case it is so that SXX can, when evaluating strategy, for eg a cash raise, a change of direction, a merger/takeover(as predator or victim) they can consult a few key holders and know their mind and/or get their approval.It will also mean that well-funded holders can more readily fund the inevitable cash needs in the future.
At the moment establishing the mind of the shareholders would mean a chat with 80 thousand!!Additionally SXX will want a more stable share register than today , the last couple of days SP action shows the volatility engendered by a largely ill-informed and somewhat nervous PI herd.(present company excepted , of course!!)

That means that it must be inevitable that the PI base shrinks , either by adding a significant number of"new" shares in the hands of a major holder or better still a group of holders or by the gradual attrition of PI shareholdings as they take profits or cut losses.

CF and his board do not "own " the company and they will, I am sure, be much happier when/if the company's share register looks more like that of a conventional; large scale FTSE 100 outfit.

I am confident therefore that among the various positive developments needed to establish SXX as a major commercial entity, such a transfer of control is essential , and inevitable.

Prevost My assumption was (and is) that the news about an alternative funding strategy would include a perhaps significant equity sacrifice by the company as part of the funding package, leading to a potential change of ownership somewhere down the line.

Jones....

I never buy when an SP is falling sharply unless I know the reason why and can discount it.

DGR, Roulette - the evidence is there in my posts in early august last.You should perhaps give the same amount of credence to cautious posts as to the wildly optimistic stuff.

Chero.
First an admission , my exit last august was as much fortunate as good strategy, I didn't know i was hitting the SP high.
But my reasons , some of which I set out in a series of posts in early aug 18 are roughly these
The SXX market cap had reached ~£1.5 bill, which was , I felt way too high for a company with a serious fund raise to accomplish .
Even at that MC the company was still trying to raise twice its own MC against a single asset with a number of years to profit
The very high proportion of PI's on the share register meant a significant open offer to existing shareholders was highly problematic.so it was going to be an enormous debt burden or a placing to an institution at well below the current SP

The macro economic picture was darkening and I thought interest rates were likely to rise and hence the lenders might drive a very hard bargain.
I had serious reservations about the quality of the most recent Torps in China and Brazil, in that the partners were obscure and small, which meant I thought SXX were struggling to clinch sales.
In the event I was right not for all the right reasons, but as i have frequently said my strategy is not to lose money and I felt that was highly probable whatever the ST2 outcome

Superl..

On 8 august last you said " any SP of around the 35p mark seems reasonable to moi,..."
On 14 august you said "as I see it there is essentially a clearly delineated path toward a dilution free round of ST2 funding.....

Maybe time to hit the pause button when it comes to upbraiding others for their judgement.....?