Member Info for casapinos

I suspect it means that some dormant company shares are lying around in some accounts(ie closed companies/shells?etc) or some dormant accounts exist where the owner has died/forgotten/lost the details. Like bank accounts there is a surprising amount of unclaimed stuff lodged on the books of brokers, it may be only a few pence per account but if there are tens of thousands of then it adds up to a significant sum . There was IIRC a piece of legislation passed recently addressing this problem and allowing financial companies to "tidy up" in this way.I don't think it will be relevant to an active account with a sum of more than a few pounds in it , but you may wish to confirm via the "contact us" button.

And the compliments of the season to you MYO!
I have said repeatedly that I have no problem with anyone calling into question ,disputing the truth, validity, honesty of my posts ......sadly few do ...they tend to respond with anger, abuse and insults.I don't put others down , I offer an alternative view , I have never insulted anyone , nor impugned their motives. Many posters here think the SP is on an inexorable climb to a multiple of it's current value , I politely suggest that this may not be so and seek to explain(with at least approximate arithmetic analysis) , my reasoning. There have been many responses to my earlier post on this thread , NONE of which have attempted to contend with my calculation of the SP effects of a placing, I await you or anyone else with better , or different figures.
Last post this morning on this thread though I will read and if there are reasoned rebuttals respond much later today.

And to you FFC (unless that stands for Fulham football club!!!)

HI FFC
I've been an investor here for several years and have bought and sold twice so far. That's not usual for me as I tend to hold stocks for many years , though they are almost always larger well-established companies in the FTSE 100. I post relatively infrequently , on areas in which i do have some knowledge , so don't expect much comment from me on Mining, engineering etc. I have made a living from stock market investment for over twenty years now and honestly wish to stimulate intelligent debate on this board and some others which will help inform investment decisions.
I post here because it is an active board with many highly committed and well-researched posters, but many of whom have invested all or a very large part of their assets in this single share.I fear that the depth of understanding of SXX affairs is not matched by a similar level of understanding of the risks of the market.Many posters dismiss macro economic matters,the role and attitude of the city, hedge funds, shorters etc as irrelevant so long as the hole in the ground progresses. They are wrong.History is littered with projects which fail because of bad luck, bad timing , missteps and financial overconfidence , every days business news is full of them and an understanding of the environment in which SXX operates is just as important as measuring the depth of the hole , the speed of tunneling,the minutiae of planning approvals etc .
I don't mind the harsh response to my posts though I do wish the debate could revolve around facts and their interpretation rather than personal abuse or to impugn my motives. I know that I won't alter the SP but I hope that one or two people , maybe the less frequent posters, may learn something of the nature of stock market investment which will help them make a profit here or elsewhere.

I merely state the blindingly obvious as a balance to the many on this board who seem to have a near-infinite capacity to forget/ignore it!
Rational analysis of the possible outcomes is a good way to monitor investments.I recommend it.

A rough summary of the problem in cash terms for ST2

The company have said $3bill max " vanilla" debt,and ~£400 mill extra needed. IF it were by a placing that's £400mill/1bill ie 28% of the current market cap .At an SP of 21p that level of dilution equals a post-placing SP of 21x(100/128)ie 16.4 pence(leaving aside any "sentiment " effects.)
I believe that its very unlikely that the company could get a placing of that sort away in the current climate. But any of the alternative funding solutions will have a similar(or worse) effect on the SP , so IMV that's about the current level of downside.
As to upside, a more creative solution, (perhaps deferring some fund raising decisions while proceeding with engineering work)might allow the SP to stabilise at these levels BUT the bullet will have to be bitten sometime.

It being the season of goodwill and all that i'll wish you the best of luck here and in every other aspect of your lives BUT (you knew it was coming didn't you!)the SP is down ~50% since August which is nothing to do with the general market trend , and incidentally, markets have much further to fall IMO.It is a nervous environment for large scale investment , with interest rates rising and caution spreading in the banking sector, an ineffective government wrestling with a series of overrunning and over-budget public investment projects with a Pachyderm on the premises in the shape of BR****T,the world macro situation looking ominous.
As I have said before the balance of risk with SXX is to the downside , a fully funded ST2 will re-rate the SP but not , I suspect ,back beyond where it was in August and anything less than a fully funded ST2 will obviously drive a further fall.

But it is down 25 % over three months!!!!

You have all been very naughty boys and girls, so this year santa is not going to give you a stock market rally.We are pretty close to the point at which volumes start to die away and the market hibernates 'till early january.Given the chaotic state of politics and economics, the likelihood of sharp rises in prices seems somewhere close to nil. Accordingly I have resolved to stop watching the markets closely, start drinking and eating mince pies(one just gone this minute). Will keep a weather eye on HUR and a few others 'till the new year but will not be buying .

Another failed prosecution , this time of Tesco execs, makes their score 1 out of about 8 , ie the powers to prevent market abuse are not working very well but they do exist. As a shareholder here its a good idea to read the wider business news for an understanding of how events not directly related to SXX might affect the SP

I'm not a student of day to day or hour by hour moves, preferring to base my investing on much longer timescales, but looking at today's trades it seems clear that there are some large sells and the buys are mostly small . It all suggests a reasonably large position is being trimmed/ exited. If it is notifiable we should see the evidence in a day or two and can form a judgement as to who and maybe why this is happening.As ever I don't accept the rumours of leaks or insider dealing , remember the board, their families and friends are all monitored and would find it both difficult and unwise to m risk insider dealing. Despite today's bad news about the SFO there are checks in place.
As an aside there was a one line mention of SXX's fall below 20p in the FT's markets live feature.

Hi folks , a point to note is that , whatever the merits of SXX, it is a listed share in a market which is falling. The FTSE is down ~15% from its mid year high and is amazingly, below the level it reached at the end of the last millenium!!.That has two effects, the first is obviously caution for prospective buyers of SXX or any other share, those who think the recent fall is overdone , may wait until the evidence is unambiguous that it has turned northwards , and as I have said many times that may not happen 'till ST2 is bagged and delivered.The second effect is that other shares, in much larger companies, with a track record of solid earnings , paying dividends and with lower risk than SXX are falling to levels which look an attractive buying opportunity. Investors who have a wider portfolio than many here might well invest elsewhere as the market falls further.

Having just got back from my annual long weekend meetup with a few former colleagues/ friends (several of whom are or were hedgies) and seeing the dearth of christmas spirit about in this forum of late, I thought i'd attempt to cheer you all up!
If you are down on your investments this year your are in good company, among the people i was with few have had a good year and few are expecting a better outlook in the near future.There was more caution around than for some time, among the not so cheerful subjects we discussed were , an inverting yield curve,trade tensions between US and China,UK and EU the middle east and everyone....China's Debt burden of >250% of GDP and most crucially, the cost of a good Shiraz!!!
The only trades discussed which have made good money this year were "HUR CB's and related shorts"!! and "long Tesla and selling covered calls". The good news is that the former is felt to have maybe run its course, so we might see shorters unwind so as not to be caught by major good news on FOIL and flow rates. Perhaps it's time to buy your other halves that special present they've been hinting about for months !

What do you mean, you hadn't heard the hints!!!!

Genghis I think you miss the point. The VCP offers the directors shares should the conditions be met, they have no requirement to sell those shares then , so can happily hold until selling at whatever price they feel is appropriate.

HI Joe having read beyond page 55 (I admit I stopped there yesterday!)I think your analysis is about right . So far as i can see "production maturity " is not specified anywhere and could therefore be almost anything, but as you say upgrading the FPSO falls into that category. It is also interesting that the other criteria "total shareholder return. health safety and environmental concerns and reputational considerations....." are all at the committees discretion.
The upshot is that , not surprisingly , the VCP is designed to be achieved.
In truth despite my heavily left- leanings I don't much mind that, while the VCP is complex , it is all there in the report and we (and any other investors) can read it , so can't grumble.
I was invested in Persimmon and did very well out of it,but it has clearly had severe reputational damage to an otherwise well-run company.
Your point about the maximum reward is well made and probably arises out of the PSN fiasco.
I suppose then that actual or prospective investors should rely on the "shareholder returns...."element of the VCP and accept that both directors and II's will profit (though in varying degrees!)if the VCP is paid.

Hey Joe I think the key sentence is "or EARLIER upon a maturity event.....There are two elements, one is the set of conditions surrounding EPS and FOIL and board approval of reserves,where the SP hurdle is 55p, the second is a "change of control or significant sale or disposal ...." where the SP hurdle rise to 65p. So my reading is FOIL and related conditions imply an SP of >55p or a sale of all or part of the assets where the SP >65p. To a degree when the cash is paid is less significant than when it is earned, it does say the "relevant percentage weighting will be banked but not released..." You are correct that the shares earned will be vested but not released (ie handed over) until the five year period is over but I believe that my analysis of the conditions to EARN the shares is correct.So the pressure to achieve all the necessary conditions ,including the SP, is imminent.I don't believe that a SP of 55 P in 2021 is the requirement for payment of the VCP

Re-reading the annual report( on a bigger screen) ! implies that FOIL in H1 2019 is the first of the key achievements in the VCP which will earn "share-based incentives". It also says that An average SP exceeding 55p for the three months beforehand is required.
SO, it may have just dawned on the board that if (say) FOIL on 1 Feb 2019 is achieved they also need an average SP above 55p for the months of Nov, Dec Jan. As we stand that ain't happening, UNLESS the SP rises sharply and stays well above 55p through Dec and Jan . Average for Nov is about 43p. An Sp of say,55p for dec and 65p for Jan would just about do it depending on how they calculate it , anything less than that and despite all the progress they get Zilch.It concentrates the mind!

Dive Centre I might wait a day or two to let he current euphoria die down but either way I will probably start to accumulate a few over the next few weeks. I was already contemplating a dabble as I felt the fall had maybe run its course . I tend to work on the basis that I can't spot the bottom so I wait 'till an uptrend seems to be clearly in place, if we don't see a significant fall back in a week we might be there . BUT I have no great track record of short- term successful trading so you pays your money and takes your choice!!

Hi Corral The Value Creation Plan which is the title of the share options scheme " Only has value if the SP exceeds 55p for the three months before .....

Elements of the VCP are : Lanc field appraisal,achieve FOIL, demonstrate board approved reserves.
I'm working from a somewhat blurred copy of the 2017 A/R as my main laptop has packed up so I'm not exactly sure when the three months starts and whether it precedes foil or not BUT it is clear that for ANY value in the Incentive scheme the SP has to be above 55p for some three month period and I guess that's imminent.

Why NOW?

was the question I asked myself when I saw this doc.from an organisation that describes itself as an investment bank but provides paid for analysis for a range of companies, some of which have much less merit than HUR. Also why would a chairman (in whom I have little confidence, as I said at the time of his appointment)who I believe has been employed to sit still and shut up, suddenly pony up a chunk of cash when he hadn't done to date .
So being a naturally suspicious type I started digging and on page 55 of the last annual report, relating to directors remuneration and the availability of share options I found what i believe to be the answer..........Under the heading "achieve first oil in H1 2019..." there is a line that says....... "Share price hurdle 55p ZERO value below this"!!!!
So I suspect that all the stops are being pulled out to get the SP to 55p .Obviously FOIL may well achieve this but the HUR board are taking no chances, expect to see a flurry of good news RNS's in the next few months!

Being a deeply cynical sort my response is............ to start buying again!