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HI Wulbert as your thread seems not yet to have had a reply to your specific question I'll offer one.
I suspect that HUR's action last year , of creating an heirarchy of companies for their various assets gives them the option to "sell off " various assets as they become desirable ie as proven producers. I am not going to bother to relate assets to holding companies as that would be a chore, but it means that they could choose to sell a proven, producing field to a major or minor established oil production company. That would prompt an immediate and significant addition to the company's asset value and an SP surge as , by definition, it generates ready cash on the books.The company would then be in the happy position of having a lump of cash on its books, which it could choose to invest in a drilling programme on as yet unproven, assets and/or return some cash to shareholders by way of a special dividend. if they did the latter(which I think fits with some of DR T's statements) all holders would get a nice lump sum, but then of course the SP would fall back to a level reflecting the remaining cash and the markets view of the likely success of further drilling campaigns
All being well, they could "rinse and repeat" successful drilling campaigns , EPS proven oil flow , another sale another special divi.
The SP and the underlying market cap would oscillate, holders would benefit from cash returns rather than SP rises or even regular dividends . Though in the far future , a track record of two or three or more? successes would likely mean a takeout by a major, especially if the sum of reserves proven or prospective WOS begins to be measured in the billions of barrels.
FWIW I think that latter situation is , at least, a possibility.

Replayed my(illicitly recorded) copy of the presentation and only three points popped out

First all retired miners cough excessively - I didn't notice it "live"but on replay it sounds like a doctor's waiting room in january!
Second ,Ash said that staff numbers would be 700- 800 on three shifts but "most" would be above ground driving kit remotely
and third
My maternal great uncle was president of the union in the 1880's!!

OR chatting to Ash (maybe after you left?)he said that once in the polyhalite they will drill horizontal "cores" to test thickness and purity of Poly in all directions to inform mining drills ,Ie they will go in whichever direction produces the best yield and that this will be the pattern throughout production , so that however haphazard the excavation is, it is always productivity led. Seems obvious but new to me .Also implies that no matter how many cores you have taken from the surface there is no substitute for being down there

Good news - it looks like BKY may be recovering and momentum for licenses is returning , bad news - the Sagrada familia in Barcelona has just been granted a building permit after 136 years!!!!!

Didn't mean to capitalise your! Your fingers are no doubt as good as, or better than, mine!

HI MYO there were soft drinks in the bar (though I did not avail myself of them!!)
On the MTS, my impression as stated was that the SXX in-house geology team are relaxed about the risks and cost structure of that part of the project , as you are aware there is high confidence in the fact that it will all run in the redcar mudstone and that having chosen strabag and their standard TBM's the tunnel size adjustment provides for a "turnkey " solution using tried and trusted kit in a predictable medium which has much less water-related risk. I suspect that the extra cash(despite the possible difficulty in finding it) is a relatively small price to pay for what is by volume(and duration?) the largest task. After hours though, Ash. reiterated that such concerns as they have are because of the integration of several different excavation strategies when tunnelling down rather than laterally.
I am sure you are correct in assuming that Strabag fully expect to achieve above(well above) the agreed rate and to earn their potential bonuses. I haven't seen a breakdown of the costs of the various components of the build and due to commercial confidentiality I doubt we will . whether any other contributors here have the expertise to hazard a guess as to the value of the components of the build I know not, but unless we learn that we cannot guess as to what additional costs may be incurred .YOUR finger in the air of 10% may be near the mark but is only! $300-400 mill. Ash. not unreasonably steered well clear of topics relating to finance!
It would be reasonable to posit that SXX finance team have committed to extra payments only insofar as they can be met by extra(or earlier) revenues.

HI OR hope you and lady rascal enjoyed your Greek meal and not to much Retsina!

MYO you must be a shy and retiring flower, else you could formed a triumvirate with OR and myself as we grilled Asher in the bar (he kindly agreed to take questions though the rules of the AGM forbade it in session!!)

Others might be familiar with all I offer below but for those who aren't what I gleaned , include the following:

Contracts for all aspects of the build include incentives for beating target dates for "First poly" and "production" though the definition of those isn't wholly clear.
While, as OR says the reason for tunnel widening is simple, Asher didn't really have a clear answer as to why(or whether) a 14% increase in diameter leads to a 40% increase in lining thickness, together with a couple of other geologists they tossed the question around for a while using various formulas including PI (the radius: circumference constant , not us!) without reaching a clear conclusion.What Asher did say though was that the reduction in advance rates was at the behest of Strabag to give themselves a margin to offset taking on the contractual risk.Asher also conceded that the contract has provisions for Strabag to share responsibility if SXX geo tech data is wrong or deficient.
I asked Ash. about the statement in the recent presentation that"Ultimate funding requirement will be determined by lender view of contingency and risk..." He could not commit on the level of contingency but said that from a geo. point of view the greatest risk is in the vertical boring rather than horizontal due to the varying geo materials and water risk , he was pretty sanguine about the horizontal tunnel task . He did say that he was currently busy responding to the geo questions being posed by the lending banks consortium using various geo tech firms (the only name of which I recognised was Ove Arup). The inference we can draw from that is that intensive work is still ongoing to assure the lenders WRT drilling risks before they offer the cash.

I shall replay my recording of the lecture this PM and should any thing further pop out I will addend.

Hi AUs Yeah if you log on to the other LSE site you can see the days transactions and their types of which "off-book" is one and often feature large volume trades , equally, if you look at the share trades icon at the top of this page now you will see many late reported trades, again often large which distorts the picture(and often give a clue as to tomorrow's direction for the SP.

You're right Aus the number on each side should add up to the total, and i suspect on the exchange they will, but something lost in transmission , the whole system is only useful as general guide as there are off-book trades, late reported trades(see all the stuff after 4.30) etc etc

NO - while it is true that every trade is both a buy and a sell, there is often a bias one way as the buy or sell is determined by approximating to the nearest side of the bid/ ask if the bid ask is 100 - 101p any trade settled at >100.5p is deemed a buy, below 100.5 a sell. On days when a SP is rising sharply the buys will , generally, exceed the sells and vise versa when the sp is falling.The system breaks down somewhat because the Determination of buy/sell can often fail in fast moving and/or high volume markets.

Mr Dt I will ask, not an engineer so my question would be thicker walls is it all geology? is it wider tunnel equipment /clearance?
Is ALL the additional funding related to tunnel size or are there other engineering costs included, is it merely contingency or real identified costs and therefore is there still contingency in the costing? and if so how much cash/percentage. what is cash impact of delays ie how much is spend to be per day/week/ month etc . I am still compiling my list of questions so any more grist for my mill?

I'm going -while i think its going to be mostly engineering based I'm happy to ask any questions anybody wants answers to . Fire away on this thread I have no inhibitions about putting the company on the spot, I am an awkward bu**er, even when I'm in a good mood!!

Check out the late notified trades,(cross-checked on that other LSE site) literally several million quids worth of buys. The market has suddenly remembered that SMDS is a well-run company in a growth area with prospects of rapidly rising revenues , a tie up with a big ( really big) us on-line retailer and a recent major acquisition to add to the bottom line. I am adding and expect a rapid recovery, the markets these days are hysterically over-reactive . Its the bots, the bots, the bo.......

NO Fred your guilty secret is safe with us so long as you don't tell anyone else!

It might all be irrelevant. There is a strongly held view in the Treasury and ONS that RPI is flawed and may be scrapped or redesigned. Given that Gov is already moving benefits/pensions upratings away from RPI , it may either cease to exist or be "tweaked"to better reflect the modern world or in other words to give a lower annual figure!

Rob I'm deeply offended I'm a Geordie!

Guys don't apologise for being born or growing up in Yorkshire ............It's not your fault! No one will blame you for it, just learn to speak clearly , don't ever mention it and you might just get away with it.

Those of us fortunate to be born and/or live elsewhere are, for the most part kind and thoughtful and we recognise that you can't all be as lucky as us!!!!!

Disclosure ;The above is meant to be a joke and if you don't get it -it must be 'cos you were born in Y"£$%$^&e.

Guys, you are invested in a limited company on the UK stock market.The limited bit is good because if SXX goes bust owing billions of pounds or dollars for contracts signed and bills they cannot pay, you have no liability beyond your investment. Whether you invest £1, £100 ,£1000 or £1million you know the absolute limit of your risk. There are people working for companies contracted to SXX whose entire working career is at risk if SXX fails.
In return for that limited risk you take, you may receive many times your original investment , and from comments made almost every day on this board that is what many of you are taking for granted. It may happen, indeed for all of you , particularly those with rather more of your wealth invested than is sensible , I hope it does.BUT it is NOT guaranteed, should you care to read stock market history you will find hundreds , probably thousands of companies with a sound idea, good management, adequate funding and well thought out plans which have failed , through bad luck, poor management decisions, a sudden , unexpected change of circumstances, a widespread business recession which might have almost no bearing on the company except to herald a change in attitude of government central banks, lenders,etc
SXX is I believe, a company with a better than average chance of success , which is why I have invested here ,though am not currently, as I said on 6th and 8th august , at the moment its prospects are shrouded in uncertainty , until it gets ~$3.5 billion , yes that's right $3.5 BILLION to execute its plans.Remember the company is judged by the stock market as being worth around $1.5 billion at the moment, many of you think that is less than its true value , and in time , if all goes well, you will be proved to be right, but that's the future , and making assumptions about the future is fraught with risk, that risk is why SXX's valuation is not a simple extrapolation of future prospective profits. The last month or so illustrates that fact. Investment is complex,it should be undertaken with care, it offers large rewards, in return for large risks. Every penny you have invested is at risk and those who warn you of that fact are correct, however uncomfortable that reminder may be . I wish you all good luck but even more, good judgement

Answer ......................Nothing!

If you are thinking of selling you are way too late , the SP has already fallen 40% from recent highs, which in a perverse way is good news. It probably means that the falls to come if there are any, will be less than you have already experienced and while Neither I nor anyone else can predict the SP in the future , I think a reasonable position to adopt is that , absent complete disaster (ie an onerous ST2 deal) even further falls mean a smaller loss in cash terms(because unfortunately the value of your holding is much smaller).
So ,if as you are mostly certain "the mine will get built"" and "the revenues and then profits will flow...." not all that much has changed except that your eventual bonanza will be smaller.
Whatever you are feeling today, the situation isn't going to be much different on Monday and after reflection your views may be more rational than they are at the moment.
NOTE the above is NOT investment advice it is merely a suggestion (from one who has on occasion lost tens of thousands by rushed judgements !) to think carefully before acting , remember "act in haste repent at leisure......"

and a genuine GLA

Update : This mornings FT has this "Openreach is valued by BT at £12.6bill ...." that's over half of BT's market cap for a division making 30~% of profits , so at least BT understand where their growth is!!

Also "Morgan Stanley value BT at 260-310p...."