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Andy, I was a company director with responsibility for budgets in the many tens of millions , been there, seen such processes in action, signed contracts for eight figure sums. I do know what I'm talking about

My error sum needed is $3bill ergo 3/2 = 1.5 expressed as e percentage is 150%.

Some of the chatter relating to the likely outcome of ST2 financing is guilty of gravely underestimating the complexity and risk inherent in such an exercise.
What we KNOW is that the sum involved is ~$3m, the present SXX market cap is ~$2.1 billion so SXX want to raise ~150% of their MC.
To do that is extremely uncommon, no matter the extreme expressed confidence of CF.
We KNOW that the target interest rate for the package is 6-7% but we also KNOW that interest rates are rising and will, in all probability , be much higher than now, during the life of the loans.
We KNOW that the likely currency for the loans and certainly for the product will be $ and that many of the mining costs will be in £ or euros and we don't KNOW where exchange rates will go. But it is reasonable to hazard a guess that "cable" will move against Sterling in the future.
So lets play bankers- SXX want loans/ "guaranteed "bonds at 6-7%. I can offer them that , and , all being well, collect my interest, steadily (but possibly against rising inflation and money rates).When interest rates rise bonds fall, so I bear a risk in that if I want to trade my bonds to exit the deal , they may have fallen in value.
BUT I could , for example, offset that risk by demanding either a convertible bond where the hoped for SP rise would bring me a capital gain to offset my risk, or demand a generous placing of SXX shares at a substantial discount to the present price, giving me a (potentially profitable) stake in the company at a cost only to existing shareholders.
I have not really got time to develop my theme further at the moment, but hope to have demonstrated that almost all of the high cards are in the hands of the bankers and it's a game where bluffing just doesn't work.

Volumes rising sharply , 1.25 mill late reported buys at/above ask, something's happening!

Andy I'm not a "trader" but i do adjust my positions in the light of new information or a change in market sentiment whether share - specific or general.WRT SXX I have reduced my position recently for the reasons set out in my posts of :

23 July "high %age of II's makes a share issue as part of ST2 difficult"
7 aug "FT piece casts doubts" - whether real or not the FT has a wide readership and is influential.
8 aug "sheer scale of fund raise Cf the market cap is highly ambitious and therefore problematic"

Like most here i believe that eventual commercial and hence financial success is probable , BUT I have been around the markets for a long time and am fully aware of the ups and downs before that is achieved, and accordingly when optimism wanes I reduce and when it waxes i increase. I don't always get it right, but have found that not losing money is more important than missing opportunities - there is always another opportunity(often in the same share) in the future and having the resources to take advantage is key. I will add here either when I (and more important , the market) believes the fall is done or overdone, or when the primary reason for concern(ie ST2 funding) is satisfactorily resolved.
I cannot speak for others but it may be that there are some who share my caution.After all if the SP is going to reach 50/60p/£1 there will be , I suspect, plenty of time to get back in,

My fag packet calcs suggest that for SXX to fund the ST2 debt at estimated 6-7%interest and 2.0x cover means an EBITDA of >£600 mill pa.
Leaving aside all the risks of engineering, global trade wars etc etc Gov will be seeking assurance that the company can, in full production achieve that.HMG will underwrite two thirds of the necessary funds ONLY if they believe that they are very unlikely to be on the hook in the event of failure.
This cabinet of Dogma, Dither and Disharmony will only agree if they are sure they are long gone before excrement and air cooling meet!!

Depends on your timescale,Nezlob. Mine is measured in years and for that reason I see Tesco as a useful part of a balanced portfolio(my only retail share).I have held for about 18 months and will hold for a few more years assuming slowly rising dividend on the back of better supply chain, economies of scale through the Booker acquisition and the carrefour tie-up. Holding market share at or near 30% against a UK population rising by 500,000 per annum(they all have to eat, so its non-discretionary spend and recession proof).I expect better execution throughout on the basis that "drastic dave" and all being well and him being well, Charles Wilson know their stuff.Within two years i expect a SP >£3 and divis of 3-5%. meets my 10-15%per annum growth objectives and pretty safe.

Worth bearing in mind that the underlying "borrow"for short positions is normally for a 90 day period , so the shorters need to buyback and return within that period. The CB holders will generally "roll over" the short as I have described before to maintain a neutral position.
Incidentally it's worth noting that Fidelity , (the world's largest fund manager0 have recently started to offer a "free" to the US public, investment tracker fund which they have said they will finance by the revenue from lending stock to shorters, so they don't expect shorting to go away anytime soon.

There is a lot of chatter about the SP of SXX and when it might reach 40/50p/£1.That's not really relevant to anyone except the PI's who inhabit this board.
What is relevant is the market cap, currently about £1.7 billion and the potential Enterprise value(EV), that is the sum of its market cap. and debt, if, and when, ST2 funding is procured. Fully funded SXX will have an EV approaching £4 billion pounds set against a single asset - the rights to a mine to be built and to extract for the foreseeable future.If any of you wonder why the SP is where it is and why writers for the FT and Reuters express caution look no further than that .I am invested here(though only to the extent of <2% of my total portfolio) and like most of you believe that the chances of successful build and extraction are acceptable, note not high , just acceptable.
The events of the last couple of days are not surprising , though the ire and abuse directed at those who disagree with your blase assumptions that all will go swimmingly and you will all be rich as croesus are a sad testament to the inability to see the many sides of the argument. I recognise the extent of the analysis undertaken by many and the benefits of the wisdom of crowds, but urge some of you to take the time out to reflect on what might go wrong and how you would deal with a failure of SXX or a major hiatus(in my view more likely due to financial than engineering problems)leading to a prolonged SP stagnation.There MAY be large rewards to be had here BUT it is not a given, if it were the SP would rocket driven by large scale clamour from institutions to get a piece of the action.That has not happened because of their understandable reservations about the ultimate success of the company, many of which have been highlighted this week, by commentators who do not deserve the implication of dishonesty or incompetence which have come their way.
I have no problem with critical comment on this post but i would appreciate courtesy and recognition that my purpose is to help to balance the one sided debate driven by the fact that we all (me included ) wish for SXX's success.
On that basis fire away!!

This mornings FT piece has gained some traction, see @AlasdairPal on twitter. Mentions Capital groups share sales(see RNS).Also doubts about Gov guarantee. There is clearly a bout of jitters setting in.I have as iImentioned a day or two ago reduced my position.Might be some volatility for a while.

15l Can you post your average working height for the week every monday morning?

Myo the prime condition for conversion is a higher SP and that's happening so your wish may be granted!SXX have as you say, got the shares ready and waiting in treasury.If it doesn't happen before ST" finalisation it will happen PDQ afterwards.

MYo current >0.5% declared shorts at 4.6%
On 22 apr declared shorts reached ~7%(SP30p)
by 10 may declared shorts had fallen to 3.6%(SP34p)
This shows that there were several short positions closed as the SP rose ,this is normal - shorts lose money as the SP rises.
Between 10 may and 20 july declared shorts rose only slightly , but started to rise more briskly lately to a current position of 4.6%. logic suggests(!)that the next figures will show a FALL in shorts as hedgies(its mostly hedgies)close losing positions and may(?)consider converting some CB's and selling . We will know within a week or two whether that is the case. If there is a wave of conversion and selling the SP may fall back or stabilise , but obviously the CB holders will seek to unload in such a way as not to significantly drive the SP down.
Whatever the short-term future we know that the sum of the CB's are likely to be gone by christmas. We can only watch and wait (though I may sell some of my holding in the short- term to bank a profit hoping to rebuy a little lower.)

Myo - I appreciate your attention to detail - it doesn't invalidate my point that the maximum is just that.

It's a planning application - get the maximum possible size passed and then any subsequent scaling back has implied approval, go for something smaller and scale up - back to the planners . So, it's quite likely that SXX strategy (sensibly enough) is to bid large even though they know the requirement may be smaller.

Cranleigh spot on . just to clarify for some - if you are holding a CB , then you get the income based on the interest rate AND the chance of a capital gain if the SP rises(ie you buy at the conversion rate and sell when the sp is higher). the only risk is a falling SP. SO you borrow some shares(possibly but not necessarily the same no. as your CB entitlement) and sell them at "todays "price, if the SP falls, you buy them back more cheaply to repay those you borrowed, generating a profit. Hence revenue whether the SP rises , falls or is static. WIN WIN for the bondholders , but also WIN WIN for the issuer, because they get funding without immediate dilution, the interest rate may be marginally less because of the promise of a capital gain to lenders and dilution when it comes, is near certain to be at a higher SP and thus less painful to existing holders. For this reason CB issue is likely to become more common, and is in my view to be welcomed by existing shareholders , the perceived"threat" of shorts holding the SP down is much less than the problem of inadequate funding that the CB's address.

Heardy - one thing LLOY does not need is cash , there will be no placing/open offer for the foreseeable, else why would they be spending money on a buyback?

Medium term effects of a rise in bank rate is positive for banks - as the rate goes up their %age profit(known as NIM - net interest margin) rises . ie say a NIM of 3% on a loan at 5% is higher than 3% of 4%and so on.

Sold today , I said back in may that I would hang around until £45 but happy top take a profit and move on . The remaining £5 will take around 6 months to appear, so i'm happy to leave it for someone else.

7% rise on interim , the same on final would mean annual div's of ~3.3p or 5%. That 's fine for now, expect next year to be ~6% against today SP,and/ or a ~10% rise in the SP. Meets my annual 12-15% target overall.