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Looking again at the Ore handling plan- the existing MHF stands back from the river by about 1500 metres(google maps) and after granulation etc a conveyor (route not yet decided- but as turnpan says crossing a main road) is needed to load ships.IF, the new proposal goes ahead it would appear to offer the prospect of relocating the MH facility and the ship loading facility on to the same site,fully self-contained with less additional transit and less impact on the surrounding transport network. It also offers the Gov.a good news story and as OR says a justification for the funding guarantee. If in addition the tunnel could be re-routed at little additional delay (subsurface issues etc permitting), negligible extra distance and cost it could be a win-win.The upcoming AGM might have some very interesting revelations/discussion.

The placing of 57m shares at 35p to raise �20 mill, the good news is no discount so the buyers are paying market rate always a positive, the enlarged co. will have an initial market cap of �64 mill on re-admission.the bookbuild to complete today so the buyers are all lined up and I think, for probity should not include GFG or Gupta himself (otherwise the 49% is screwed) the power purchase agreements are : Most to a GFG company at �30.90/MWH with an uplift limited to CPI/2 Some to a joint venture with the Dutch recycling group at �130/MWH with an uplift of CPI so a very favourable rate and terms to GFG!!! A pellet source price of �4/tonne for 875k tonnes The power station to operate from q4 2020 after a spend of �185 mill funded by "505 debt , the rest in grants and equity, so afurthe (open offer?) equity raise needed with a few months. Two board members from GFG dependent upon there share holding(implies the likelihood/possibility of selling?) The new entity appears to have got the powerstation for half of the new MC ie �32 mill in return for half of a company worth �44 mill when the deal was struck so, on the face of it , a good deal. I will be back with an analysis of the revenues , profits etc of the pelletised power station base on the figs quoted later in the day (time permitting)

two relevant articles in the weekend papers , one revealing a possible purchase of another pub estate which has triggered this mornings RNS , the other slightly more concerning to me about the use of CVA's to force retail landlords into lowering rents see "can't pay won't pay" in the sunday times business section. The article dwells on the retail problems and highlights cases where CVA's are being used explicitly to force retail landlords into rent reductions while other creditors are paid. I have hastily reviewed NRR's retail renters and among them are poundworld, poundland , both in deep trouble and fear that NRR's business model is coming under threat. Accordingly i have halved my exposure and will keep events in review.

Can anyone with a better knowledge of SXX propsed ore transport sytem interpret this news? Does it mean a possible route for ore via the tunnel and then overland to this site for shipping until/ instead of the existing proposal? Is it too late to reroute the tunnel ? is that a real alternative? Am I even more confused than i think i am?

Todays ST business section has a full page piece about Sanjeev Gupta,the man behind GFG and Simec ,should you want to read it , it's titled "The steel tycoon who rose without trace " I won't post a copy because i respect copyright laws , but will offer a few quotes and must say, it's not very complimentary. Quotes I have selected are : "Guptas empire is held under the loosely defined Gupta family group(GFG).....It has aspirations to float on the stock market" My comment - is this to be achieved by the back-door method of the ARL "merger"? "Gupta is believed to have spent �20 m on a stake in along delayed tidal power project....." is this just inaccurate journalism? or is there some other explanation? " ...(in 2014)his father bought the neighbouring Uskmouth coal power station....???" So is Simec/ARL buying Uskmouth from his father???? if so WTF?? As I say, the full page article has a lot of detail, some of it perhaps inaccurate , some of it quite perturbing and all of it in less than glowing terms. I will dig some more, and intend to attempt to contact the author and I will report back if I find anything more.

While in an active takeover situation reporting requirements of Institutional holders are much more rigorous. If you want to track what the major players are doing, clicking on the RNS button at the top of the page gives a pretty good picture, and shows how active in the market they are..As I said a few days ago, and is required to be reported, most of them hold both companies and will trade to ensure the deal goes through , In the meantime its obvious from some of the option trading that they are also making a turn on the volatility . The outcome is therefore likely to be an erratic upward progress in the SHP SP towards the deal valuation coupled with an erratic but broadly flat state for the TAK SP.

Wherever you go...... my dad and grandad both worked at the Wallsend slipway,home of the( fairly) famous WSEL crane visible for miles around. Grandad was a tool grinder , dad a craneman and "slinger" but I can't remember the last time a ship was built on Tyneside, I suspect wind turbines are the most likely thing to construct now.

CA appear to have sold ~7 mill shares (value ~�2.2 mil)

A stunningly badly-worded RNS setting out the appointment of a "chief Commercial officer" with no statement of the need for , or detail of, the role.

What will happen is as follows the stock will return to the market and after some volatility the SP will settle , I believe , sharply higher. An rns (on that day or very shortly after) will set out the detailed terms of the deal, and perhaps arrangements for a placing/ open offer and the date for an EGM to vote on acceptance. The egm will take place and after a positive vote the revised company structure will be implemented We will then have shares in a much larger company and depending on whether a large placing (underwritten by a commitment from Simec) occurs we will own a more valuable but much less percentage wise part of the new company. It would then be reasonable to expect , over the rest of this year , a flurry of rns's relating to the deals of which we have seen "teasers", the more of these which are implemented the more the value of the company (though not, necessarily our share )rises

I mentioned a day or two ago (in my note about arbitrage,that holders need to consider what the big players are doing relative to the dealand i've been digging. The list of II's who hold both stocks is quite extensive, eg Fidelity, Blackrock, State street, Legal and general(which I also hold). They(who hold a significant %age of both , obviously will want to engineer a situation in which the deal goes through , so their most likely strategy is to hold both shares at , or above, the current price, with Shire rising steadily as elements of the deal are firmed up. They will NOT want the Takeda SP to tank so may well hold or even add to TAK over the next few months. I expect to see a steady flow of RNS's with buys of Both companies , until the deal is done . To check it's easy to use the SHP Live RNS logo above. watching and waiting .

74 Sea - Given that your first post in february showed that you didn't understand how dividends work I strongly suggest that you read a book or two about investing(there are plenty of beginners guides, cheap on A******* )and think very seriously about the risks involved, as well as the benefits.

Anyone holding here would do well to read a bit about arbitrage specifically in takeover situations.The standard approach is to buy the target company and sell./short the buyer for the very obvious reason that the former normally rises and the latter falls as the deal nears completion. You can bet that there will be hedge funds looking at that as I write. In this case however they need also to consider multiple exchange rates, interest rate movements and still-to be published figures from both companies. The typical investor is at a significant disadvantage without the tools available to the hedgies. see my post at tue 14.07 for my take.

Snippet i picked up yesterday is that the deal includes a break fee as follows 2%(of �46 bill)if the Takeda board pulls out 1% if the Takeda EGM says no 1.5% for any other reason - so at worst ,Shire will receive �460 million if the deal collapses, that's in the region of 4/5 months profits, making this a very good year for long-term holders

Its nothing to worry about - a standard "ambulance chasing" approach by US lawyers seeking to drum up a class action suit which will earn them millions of dollars in fees and may(unlikely)drive a rise in the price paid by Takeda.IF, and its a big if, they find anyone with material claims that the sale is undervalued , it might just flush out another bid at a higher price but , I for one, won't hold my breath.(or delay my sale)

As things stand it looks highly likely that the deal will complete and most estimates are for 1st half 2019. So with an SP at~�40 now the options are to sell, immediately, wait for the deal to complete and get ~$30(�21,75) and 0.839(�27.26) of a Takeda share, (currently trading at ~$21 in the US ) or choose to sell at a point between now and this time next year . Given that logic suggests that as the deal nears completion the Shire SP will tend towards the takeout price, we can assume roughly 20% uplift over a year.(always assuming that non of the many variables change over much in that period).Knowing my maximum profit is 20% above the current SP(or about 30% based on my average) I will watch the Shire SP closely.The uplift is unlikely to follow a steady upward trend , of 2% per month rather it will move sharply as each hurdle is cleared, the primary one IMV being the Takeda shareholder vote. Therefore that will likely be my decision moment , if the news suggests its tight I will probably take profits(if still available) and run .If the Shire Sp starts to fall back preceding the vote I will bail. otherwise I might sit tight 'till a few days before the deal completes , selling at �45+, hopefully.

caveman - I covered all those possibilities and more under the heading "global events!!!" but raining meatballs and a ready supply of cheese sound like an investment opportunity!

correction - the Takeda board might Be OK with the deal (and the effect on their bonuses!) but they need 75% of the shareholders in favour , and as they will own only 50% of the new(but larger) company that is not a given.

Lots of reasons, the Takeda board might not approve the deal , the Tak SP might collapse leaving the deal in jeopardy, major global events might intervene, exchange rates Yen: $ :Euro, might swing wildly affecting the value and perhaps finally many people might see that the larger Shire shareholder might not fancy owning shares in a japanese company trading on a US market, so will sell into profit (as i will)

The bete noire (or is that white knight?) of this board is having something of a torrid time lately, see www.theguardian.com/media/2018/may/03/investor-criticises-chiefs-of-lossmaking-gloo-for-pocketing-millions RB is sounding off about another losing investment and this time it's personal! His track record is looking a little tarnished.