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As a holder here who understands a great deal more about the markets than either mining or agriculture, can I ask those much more well-versed in SXX a simple question.Does today's news of an agreement to use a binding agent and set up plant on Teeside indicate a change of strategy? ie I had assumed that the TORP's were agreements to ship a granulated /powdered polyhalite product to intermediaries who would then sell it on to the users in that form , or perhaps blend/bind/pelletise it and sell in a slightly more manageable form to end users.The agreement to buy a binding agent and therefore presumably pelletise/package before shipping implies what the markets would describe as "vertical integration" , ie doing more with the product internally.Were the TORPs specific about the form in which polyhalite is to be shipped, and if not does this mean a renegotiation and/or a slightly higher delivered price?
Views/ comments/ ridicule invited

Useful and relevant quote , concerning government support

"It means what I choose it to mean - neither more nor less....."

Lewis carroll from Alice in Wonderland...........

Crystal amber , the activist hedge fund known to all of you as a major investor in HUR and which has been recently reducing its stake ,has been building a position in Passport and banknote maker De la rue.It is fairly clear that RB(rightly IMV) sees DLR as a likely takeover candidate and is positioning his fund to take a quick profit.Today a "spat" has broken out between the two as DLR are refusing to allow RB to raise questions at their AGM.
WHY am I mentioning this? Well a few days ago I saw but didn't comment on, a discussion as to why CA would reduce their stake in HUR. It would seem likely that the motivation was merely to try to take advantage of a quick profit elsewhere and doesn't reflect on the prospects of HUR.

Interesting stuff taufour and it draws out one fundamental point , which is that SXX cannot readily use an"open offer" as a means of fund raising. The implication of your research is that PI's hold shares to the value of about £1.2 bill, the likelihood of a take up of all or most "rights " in a open offer is slim- I cannot imagine the PI community having the will, or the cash, to nearly double their investment(and their risk!! Therefore ST2 HAS to include a very large debt element, or possibly (but not probably, IMO) a large placing(on generous terms) to a major new investor. You have iIthink firmly reinforced why the SP is where it is and why it will stay there until the outcome of ST2 is known.

Following my somewhat cautious post this morning i've been looking at the progress of TORPs over the last 3 years.

SXX announced their "maiden" TORP of~75 ktpa on 12/01/2015
by the annual report for year to March 2015 they had 1.25 mill tpa
24/12/15 another 500k tpa
08/06/16 another1m tpa
26/10/17 another 750k tpa
20/06/18 another 350k tpa
I haven't found in brief research the remaining~500k?
I produce this to illustrate two points, one that it has been slow going almost 3.5 years to get to this point and two ,that the pace is slowing.SXX are in a bind - they need TORPS to underpin the ST2 financing and their potential; customers will know this so they will drive a hard bargain which SXX are in no position to refuse. I guess there is a poker game going on and the buyers know they have the stronger hand.
Despite my caution I am and have been a holder here for a couple of years, BUT I live off my portfolio and have done so successfully for over twenty years , largely because I seek to avoid losing money . My caution has convinced me to scale back my holding for a few months - I may lose some potential profit but i will sleep easier and happily return, even at a higher price, when the outcome of ST financing is clear.

(stands well back and awaits strenuous responses!)but happy to read considered, fact-based arguments against my position!

Update Macquarie estimate a saving on input costs of 250 mill euros between the two co's , Jeffries" up to £400mill savings" . So an average of £100-200 mill reduction in TSCO's annual input costs , assuming half of that goes to cost cuts to customers then around £50-100mill pa to TSCO's bottom line.

WGR your regular downbeat chatter is not affecting the business or its SP, it is just possible that you may be wrong?

In my mind the key things about today's RNS were what it didn't say.We all know that SXX are looking to borrow a sum in excess of their market cap. to fund mine build . That's a big ask for a company with no prospect of significant revenues for several years.
The basis on which banks would lend is twofold - an assured sales and hence revenue stream based on TORP agreements set at BELOW market levels and a government guarantee which would help to keep interest rates on the loans down(NOTE the gov will act as guarantor for the loan and would not expect to provide funds except in the case that the company failed to pay its debts)
The RNS changes the TORP requirement from "between 6 and 7 mtpa" to " circa 6.5mtpa IN 2018"that suggests to me a doubt as to whether the higher figure can be met, we know now that the target of first half 2018 has not been met.. In addition the extremely odd phrase"the quality of the responses received so far has been positive....." NOT the CONTENT or the TERMS.. of the responses.....?

On the positive side the material relating to the progress of the engineering seems much less concerning, nonetheless, I cannot see much progress in the SP until the funding(at an acceptable price) is achieved IMV the next few months and the financial outcome are make -or- break for SXX.

Tsco has set up a purchasing deal with Carrefour , the French based mega business, which should help both co's to reduce input costs and hence improve margins.Should be positive for the SP.If i were you last call I'd keep a close eye on that short!

New listing on aim is a company with a deal to buy 25% of kazatomprom 's annual output in a bid to "tighten the market " which it believes is "structurally mispriced",will be interesting to monitor the effect on prices going forward.

Hi Last call I'm a long only investor , and have been for forty years!
So i'm curious , do you short via CFD's, selling put options or another means?. How do you decide on your targets and levels? do you ignore media news?I see from your recent posts that you have an interest in DEB, LLOY and AAL . I agree DEB is walking dead , but i am invested in LLOY , comfortable that the divi and cap gain over the long term will reach my target (which is 15% pa from divi/cap for my portfolio
Rather than generalisation would you care to explain why you think TSCO - SP up significantly over 12 months, results positive,new (ish) management in place and clear plans for divestment, revenue and profits growth, a plethora of positive analyst targets and #30% of a growing market (see population stats for UK)should be likely to fall in the short term.I welcome soundly-based, well argued views , whether positive or negative and don't do abuse so would you like to offer your basis for your trade here?

Hi WGR, the problem in France is the UK problem of the now/near future . As you say, there is a major supermarket (with a nearby MCDo and a few other smaller shops) on the edge of nearly every small town- BUT that means the town centre/ main square is on its way to emptiness, the PMU bar and hairdressers survive but the butcher,the greengrocer and patisserie are disappearing.Rural France is being hollowed out and Amazon have hardly started there . I fear for their future.

Details of the rights issue to part-fund the takeover of Ecopac in Spain are now published.Briefly it's a fully underwritten 3 for 11 offer at 350p to raise abot £1 bill(the rest ~0.4bill, will be funded by debt) The fact that the company and its advisors are confident of raising £1bill from existing investors is, IMV , very positive, even though the short-term effect has been to lower the SP.SMDS' record of shrewd acquisition and integration is exceptional and this buy is expected to be earnings accretive in the first full year of operation. The record date is 6 july so all holdings on that date qualify for rights. I will be buying more before that date and am happy to pay the 16% addition to my holding to take up the rights .I am a long-term holder and In 18 months time expect to see a SP of well over £6

Friday was a high vol. day 35 mill traded ,today looking the same. CB holders converting and selling?

Interesting piece in the sunday papers reviewing the plight of discount shops poundworld/land, b& m lidl and aldi.suggesting that the recent "boom " has run out of steam. Specifically pointing out that the Germans are slowing down their expansion, with many less planning applications in the pipeline. Confirms my own view held for a while that they are beginning to "cannibalise" their own market, new openings within a mile or two of existing shops are dividing the same customers between two stores. I spoke to the manager of a LIDL near me a few months ago and he said that a new LIDL only 2 miles away had reduced their sales sharply.On another note i have just come back from a France where the LIDl (near a Leclerc)sells goods at much higher prices than the UK - I would hesitate to say that there is a cartel in France but.......? On Tesco, I note from the recent figures that the banking arm is doing well and that there are still plans to shed some of the clutter built up under the previous regime.I remain comfortable with my position here , at least up to 300p

A generally positive update on the main business, the Booker acquisition looks inspired. Apart from buying a good and rapidly growing business cheap , there are significant synergies to be had in warehousing and logistics , this year there will be £several hundred mill released in cost savings within the overall business. Expect good figs at the half and Sp moving up steadily

The key word in all of this is "compulsory", there is no possibility of the application being rejected. The UK has literally hundreds of years of history of mining below privately owned land, unlike eg the USA where landowner s have right s to the minerals below their land.

From the Admission RNS we can calculate who bought the majority of the "placing "shares as follows Henderson 16m Apms 12m Miton 7m herald invest 5m total 40m of 57m The company now has a useful slate of institutional owners but nonetheless, will still be "tightly held" as those above and Simec will hold around 70% . the one obvious effect of this will be for buying on news to have a disproportionately strong effect on the SP -strap in!!

Hi Jura Like you I am invested because of tidal. The good news is that the Uskmouth project will be a "turnkey" ie Simec/ARL(sarl?) will let a contract for a company to do the whole job for a fixed price at their risk, so the management time for sarl will be limited . When the project is up and running it will do two things , first it will (and has already)scale up sarl to be a much bigger company with greater resources to fund/borrow/develop tidal projects, and second it will provide a cash stream for the business (I estimate annual revenues at �30-40m profits �10-15m) if you read this board back a few weeks you will see that there are a number of tidal opportunities/projects in their infancy which may grow to be the basis of a large renewable energy portfolio. The real break out for this co. though is still 5+ years away.

What busy boys they are! as is always the case the buyers of the placed shares were already lined up and the deal is complete. No news yet as to who has bought but unless there are lots of small buyers(very very unlikely !)we will see holding RNS's soon. the new total of shares in the RNS is 366 m, so that includes all those issued to GFG for their 49.9% share. the placing therefore introduces new? owners for ~15% of the whole Co.So when trading starts on 15 june the market cap will be around �128m not far off treble the size when suspended. That's all good, to borrow 50% of the cost of converting Uskmouth(�185)ie �90 mill plus, the bigger the market cap the better. A company borrowing more than its market cap (even with a big brother !) is going to struggle MC �100m + will have a debt:cap ratio of <1. jay hambro , the new guy is VERY well connected, with lots of city contacts , so the profile of Simec ARl will be high. Looking very positive.

Report out today from Citi (housebroker so unable to comment until booker deal completed)suggesting that the wholesale market for small shops, pubs, restaurants etc is not �30 bill per annum as the competition commision thought but nearer �96 bill(of which Booker currently has � 5.6) so synergies for new co should " easily achieve free cash flow of 5.5% and a progressive dividend....and a like for like vol growth of 1-2%"I am heavily invested here at an average of <200p and happy to remain so.