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Avo A number of things in play. As you may have read before most of the shorts will be holders of the CB's who are earning a regular interest payment , and, have the opportunity of a profit if the SP rises above the conversion price. As the latter seems less likely to occur , the quants redo their sums and find that they need to make more from the short side of the deal to hit their target , so they increase the size of their short. Or, as they see the SP falling they follow the trend and bank on a continued fall, or, they negotiate a better deal(ie it costs less to borrow) with the Broker offering shares to borrow and so their terms of trade improve on the short side.
The guys running these positions will review them on a daily , even hourly basis to reflect the SP, interest rates, "cable" ie the £:$ exchange rate , the price of oil and the cost of a Sipsmith gin and Fevertree tonic at their local watering hole!!!

Eurofox - in a placing you don't get to play - it will be for institutional investors only, on the other hand an open offer provides the opportunity for those already invested to buy more normally at a discount, but of course either eventuality causes a sharp fall in the SP.

Mr dt avo I find it hard enough to judge the short/medium term direction for the SP let alone trying to judge inflection points.!!!

addendum " the additional non- senior debt element is broadly equivalent to 40%......."

Interesting thread, I have commented before on the enormous significance of a final ST2 settlement . The additional funding required is an issue on two grounds , one is obviously the form it will take and the second is that it is broadly equivalent to 40% of the current MC.I have felt for a while and shared that concern here, that it will hang over the SP until resolved, regardless of the physical progress being made . Recent price action shows that the market shares this concern , over the last month or so, ~800 mill shares have been traded and the SP is down ~35%.While I am by nature a long-term holder (in the case of some of my holdings over thirty years!!!)I have learned to listen to what the market is telling me and in the case of SXX that is to tread carefully . So many posters here submit "the SP fall is great , let me buy some more......" without thinking about why the SP is falling and adjusting their strategy accordingly .

Whilst it is impossible to ascertain from data in the public domain , recent chat on this thread lends support to the view that there may be approaching~£1bill of SXX market cap in the hands of PI's.That is not a good thing.
As well as being an astonishing figure,it is one which will be a source of concern to the board,and they will no doubt be fully appraised of the makeup of their share register, it is probably a large part of the reason that the market cap had got so far ahead of itself at this stage in the Co's development . As I have said before it makes any open offer of equity a very high risk, after all, have all of us the firepower to add , say ,20%, to our holding at short notice{declaration - I am out of this stock at the moment having been a holder since the day of the NYNP planning committee vote, though I am positioned to buy back if an OO is announced}and it thus narrows the range of funding options normally available to a £1 bill+ stock,or at the very least, increases the risks of an open offer being poorly subscribed.

Litc Thanks for that though the resultant figs suggest more deeply invested PI's than I would have expected ~20k people with £50k each is a lot of either very wealthy or very committed punters.

Not a simple calc. First because not all the cash will be drawn down on day one and the outstanding amount will be unpredictable because of the erratic nature of capital and ongoing spend, and second because I would expect a deferral of payments in the early years as SXX will have no revenue . BUT, generally I think an estimate of roughly double the capital amount over the period is probable, though as stated, the pattern of repayment funding is much harder to assess

LITC I'm curious to know how you arrived at your figs below re average PI holding. Discussions previously have thrown up a range of estimates for the percentage of SXX held by PI's (I incline to the view that it may be 70% +)However I have no knowledge of any figs showing the number of PI's . If you have would you share?

Hi guys , I tend to agree with CA's strategy, despite the recent and impending good news I think the recent SP run up may be over. I have for some time believed that the real SP progress here will be when(dare i say if?)FOIL is followed by a reasonable period of steady flow.Sure there will be bouts of exuberance at AM sail away and the bouy-y, cable-y stuff is done but the real arbiters of the company's success(who are not PI's)will not begin (IMV)to buy in quantity, until the assurances of steady oil are in place, they may miss a bit of the action(as I may) but if your hopes are well-founded there is a lot of SP rise to play for over the next couple of years.

Declaration : I have de-risked and sold down my position (to a greater extent than CA!!)here, and elsewhere over the last month or so and am happy to wait to re- enter, possibly at a higher price , in the new year.
GLA

Hi Stage.. more to do with algorithmic trading than rational response to the figs. As of now the MC has fallen by ~one years earnings in less than an hour, on a passable set of figs. I expect the SP to recover over the next few days, the insider explanation for this is "lack of market structure...." which essentially means irrational behaviour owing to little human input to trading decisions.....

Results out : a mixed bag

Plusses operating margin 2.9%, Booker LFL +14% and positive comment. Divi of 1.67p likely 4p-5p for the year (ie 2% and rising)

minuses sales not quite £30 bn(depending on which figs you uses), profits less than £1bn,
still getting stuffed in asia(which is mainly Thailand and I know they are having their best sites forcibly transferred to BIG C the local operator) They'd be better abandoning the venture.
All in all ,not sure the effect on the SP . I guess broadly positive , moving in the right direction , some way to go yet, but who can tell what the market will say.
Still holding as the divi rises , should be paying 10p pa in a year or two(that's >5%at my entry point.

Just a comment on what we believe we know about the options from clear and unambiguous statements from SXX as opposed to statements of intent.
SXX have committed to finding a further ~£400 mill as part of ST2

TS during the the recent analysts meeting "$3bill is the limit of SENIOR debt........
other options are being explored"

Previously CF has said "no dilution" which most here believe implies no further equity.......OR further equity at a non-dilution price?? ie at the SP at the time? How would you feel about more shares in a placing with no discount - is that "dilution"?

If that is not the answer then some form of strategic partnership as Stokey suggests, but, of course, a strategic partner is going to want a return for their £400 mill .If that isn't equity it can only be a product subsidy or a profit share, or perhaps some option to be exercised at a future date.(the latter, if all goes well, could be Gina-esque in significance!!)

SXX has got to give something , either now or in the future, to find the extra cash.That cash now amounts to around a third of the MC after recent falls. Until the price to be paid and the mechanism is ,known I cannot see any significant upward SP movement,therefore the the current drift is not surprising.

TSCO half year figs due out on wed,
the market is looking for

rev > £30bill
profits> £1bill
margins>2.5%
positive comment on Booker
if OK SP rises sharply if not.........

LITC Thanks for that I think it fully bears out my analysis, most of the Morningstar list are real or "closet" trackers who have to hold to meet their criteria. There are as yet, few, if any, significant holders who are risking their own funds to invest in SXX. However many of the punters on here may feel, that is the situation.

Vigneron According to current figs(FT) for the top ten holdings in SXX only eight organisations hold more than one percent of which six are asset managers or brokers. I stand by my analysis set out earlier.As often discussed, the short positions are almost all bondholders who borrow then sell the stock into the market , so while they are liable to re-buy and return the stock they are only holders for extremely short periods.The data may differ from other sources, depending on timing and methodology, BUT I repeat , I stand by the summary set out earlier.

To put today's and recent SP movements in context.
All(or almost all)of the trading activity in this share is PI based, if it were not ,then we would see RNS's detailing the holdings of SXX by institutions. It isn't always easy to distinguish between broker accounts holding on behalf of PI clients and genuine asset management positions held by insurance companies investment banks etc BUT broadly , I suspect that the PI share of SXX is greater than for any other company with a similar market cap , and anecdotally , taking this forum as an example, there is more PI interest in this than almost any other share.
Therefore , it is reasonable to assume that most of the SP movement is down to either over-confident (on the way up) or nervous (on the way down ) trades by the likes of us.It is NOT shenanigans by spivs in the city lining their own pockets at the expense of poor misguide PI's, it is NOT secret deals between MM's and wealthy private investors or hedge funds, or bankers buying for their own account. If that were true it would show up in declarations , and I don't believe the conspiracists who would say the shares are being spirited away to offshore accounts in Panama, or BVI (or even the people's republic of Jarrow!)
The explanation for SXX SP volatility is relatively simple , it is that a lot of investors have staked their hard-earned in the CO. in the belief that it will make their fortune , again this board is ample evidence of that . I hope it does, but that view is not(yet?)shared by the wider market.Until it is, we will all have to learn to live with the ups and downs of the SP . If you are both comfortable with your investment and willing to monitor the varying SP with the aim of sifting the really important stuff from the vagaries of short-term movement and reacting to the former while ignoring the latter then you will feel a lot better. IMV railing against the (perceived )iniquities of the market is likely only to raise your stress levels and have no other effect. You have bought shares , it can be profitable, but it is not a guaranteed easy route to a fortune, if it were we'd all be millionaires.Be patient, that might take a few years yet!!!

Avocet
Half year results

note I Accounting policies

heading "Going concern"

5th para

The Board of Directors continues to believe that the stage 2 financing will be successfully completed, however there is a risk that a successful outcome may not be reached. This therefore represents a material uncertainty that may cast significant doubt upon the Group's ability to continue as a going concern.

I will post later on my (perhaps unwanted) opinion of the significance of this!!!!

HI GK and SL
First - a couple of observations " commitment letter are expected to be received....." is not necessarily the same as ST2 funding details announced, nor is "commitment letters are EXPECTED...." the same as commitment letters WILL BE ...."

I would think that SXX would prefer to publish the whole package together.That would mean waiting until the details of the debt and whatever form the remaining funding takes are fully defined.
If SXX publish only the debt story then the question marks over the remainder still exist .If I were in their shoes I'd rather sign up the debtors and describe the mechanism for the remaining funding in one fell swoop, completion of the former taking the edge off any bad news surrounding the latter.
By definition any equity- related element , whether placing or open offer would be at a discount to the prevailing SP at the time, I wouldn't dream of guessing an SP as there are to many macro and micro variables but if pushed would suggest that it is unlikely to be sharply higher than the current SP(BTW I fully accept the comment earlier about using the SP, it is merely a shorthand guide to the market cap but it is widely used and so I'm happy to go along)
Slightly hurried response and I won't be around to support my assertions for a few hours as I am at a working lunch !

Stokey IIRC your suggestions included monetizing SXX IP rights (I cannot recall any others)-if CF and his board as as competent as you assume, then I have no doubt they will be looking at all sources of funding - that they have not proposed them as a solution to the problem suggests to me that they are either impractical or of marginal cash benefit .I would be happy to be proved wrong - as I keep repeating I am invested though only at levels where I could financially and emotionally bear a total loss.