Member Info for CaptainSwag

things are rarely priced in? really? the market is always looking ahead

21/2 ftse 7400
5/3 ftse 6700
12/3 ftse 5200
lockdown announced 16/3/20 ftse 5135
17/3 ftse 5300
26/3 ftse 5800

yes good link . thanks DA. it is what i have been saying for awhile. green sounds good but the reality is a different thing. there will be enough need for oil longterm - even if in the short term there is a drop due to covid. the question is how long term is hur. A good forward plan and maybe......

red leader - monday will be interersting on ftse etc. however i would like to think that this last week was the market looking forward and pricing it in... - i think it was pretty obvious we were going into national lockdown - and as soon as other eu countries did i think it gave boris the confidence to go for it as well. i dont think hur will go under 2p - famous last words - but there is just a month and a half before the future plans

as usual with hur - stormy times!

well it seems to be dangerous to predict hur price being at the bottom. however we carried on pumping throughout first lockdown - so unlikely to stop for this one.

there are other factors us election and macroeconomics and it could be a couple of months all round - however if we keep pumping oil out and we are getting ever nearer the forward plans...so no i dont think admin is a concern

bhoys - not everyone is sick of slift's postings. Whilst I don't always agree with his views he presents them with substance. and he is entitled to them.

the sp is where it is - it is painful. I have probably lost more than most on here. i take responsibility for that. I would have done better listening to the critical than the positives. but i did listen to both sides and made my own mind up.

my suggestion is that if someone doesn't like a poster - then skim past. i have to say there are some i do. i am not interested in the content and it does in my opinion not add to the board as a whole but i wouldnt call for their removal

Mary - good post

HUR currently have the following assets:

p1368 central (lancaster)
p2308 halifax
p2294 warwick /lincoln
p1368 lincoln south

slift - i agree.

whilst lincoln tieback might limit lancaster production - if they get the plans right - it does mean not all eggs in one basket. i suspect that was a major factor in sp decline - GWA very disappointing results left everything on lancaster - when that had issues sentiment plunged.

jiffy - i dont see spirit as the key. for me this will be the future plans for lancaster and how it will be funded.
i see spirit as a possible cherry on the top, i had for a very long time written it off and that clearly has already been priced in - but..........they haven't put it to bed so clearly there is still a possibility...and the longer it goes on the more possible that possibility.

good news on that score would show confidence in hur and improve sentiment not to mention more income.

my dream scenario regarding hur - would be an rns from spirit in november saying go ahead.....decenmber release of forward plan - water injection / well 8 / targetting sands with a huge increase in reserves . next year cpd supports development of lancaster and hurricane further/ giant squid dead....damn i just woke up! good dream

tiger - i know what you mean...i was thinking today that my modest trade lumps (£9-£15k) are buying ridiculous numbers compared to my very first ever buy in hur

slift - would be nice! when they said before xmas for the forward plans - i assumed that would mean right to the wire as per usual with AIM.
i am not discounting a surprise rns eg spirit / source of funding. and i would like to think that with the law of averages it will be a good one! only so many times you can toss a coin and end up tails!

Been thinking today that should the worst case scenario happen and WOS not be a goer long term - i think they could JV with a conventional oil play company to use AM.. it cost a lot of money to get ready for lancaster and is probably minimal on running costs now in comparison.

actually thinking about it - if hur got bought then the new company would get tax and use of AM even if they were not interested in FB - got to be worth considering for the cost of the debt

anchor - true. not worried as i am pretty sure will go back up to 3p. just annoying as i wanted to rinse and repeat.

slift -you being serious on rns? if so what do you think it will be an update on?

Doc... I can't really see them doing a placing at this market cap.. What could they raise 10million.. 20 million it wouldnt be enough for any major plans.. So what would be the point?

anchor - did a couple of tidy trades this week. Though I am on the wrong end of a couple of others.(2.7p). Got it wrong as I didn't see it dropping to 2.5 again... I see it as a way of clawing back some of the loss from holding from 60p.. The way I look at it is that it will hover around until Xmas update. I even think we might get a couple of spikes.. The key is being on the right side. Would be nice to get yesterday to today's movement more regularly

"My experience is that investor relations very good at re-badging news that is already in public domain while pretending to be sympathetic and giving little away."

guess that is in reality their job...they can't give info away that should be in an rns.
that response on placing is what i would expect from them.

thanks for replying

haggis - can ask your wording and investor relations exact response?

I wish you well with your future investments and hope you recoup your losses

https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2020/07/17/680m-team-jumps-from-morgan-stanley-to-stifel/

Genghis - I have no idea what your thrusts are about.. All I can go on is what you write. The issue is that you are one of the posters who can put a coherent argument across - however as such it is important that you are accurate. We all know you could do it if you wanted to. We also all know you like to consider the downside and it is not as if one struggles to find this with hur... and as I have said before I don't have a problem with that - but let's be honest in our posts.

genghis - with all respect that is nonsense. They have enough cash and income from oil production (monthly) to repay the interest on the bonds. Anyone pushing that argument is being very disingenous. If the market thought that the price would be zero.

yes at the moment the maturity of the bonds needs to be considered but that is quite a while away. the market may well have doubts on that - that is understandable but as you say the market is not always right. besides we will know within 2 months

cant see chrysaor buying the bonds. If they were interested in the company - and there is noindication that they are then the company is cheap enough now at £50m (+ responsibility for debt)

hur can service debt on bonds and they are not due for over 18 months. so buying the bonds would not give access to the company until then. hur plan is to sort out long term production and plan going forward - which is progressing according to last rns

The way 2020 is going i would be more worried on world war 3 or a metorite attack

genghis - not a discussion i want to get into on this board. I assume you have prioritised by giving up driving your car and flying on holiday?

mcadder - that is quite a big leap to see hur going into greener energy. i thought i was taking quite a big leap in thinking they would go for other more conventional oil plays to keep the company going and use AM for more of its contract. I am not sure on this

i suspect the reality is that at the moment we are looking at hur over a two year period - when the are bonds due. if the plans can cover these then the future could start to look rosy. my own feeling is that oil will be propped up during covid19 as countries will need the income. if normal consumption then resumes it will be interesting to see the effect on oil price.