Member Info for CaptainSwag

aquae - i stick with hur - because i have spent considerable time (for me) reading/thinking/ watching sp movements. it would take quite some time to do the same with a new play - and my work is super intensive at the moment not to mention trying to complete my tax returns with multiple incomes at the moment!

i have watched some of the well known covid stocks - but couldnt put a value on them didnt know enough etc...needless to say they have all gone up massively in the last 7 months. If only........

ceo with skin in the game is good - as long as they paid for the shares rather than issued metals will prob be a good play - as long as it is not the usual AIM hole in the ground story to fund lifestyles of the bod. though one can always make money with good timing and entry/exit points

yellowman - i have to say i am sceptical about these kind of headlines of oil companies moving from fossil fuel to green energy. Yes it provides the "woke" headline as PR but how much is changing in reality? electric cars are still not workable in the area i live - you are lucky to get a parking space let alone outside your house to plug it in. yes gas installation will be stopped on new builds from 2025 but what about the millions with existing boilers? where will the money come for that transition etc etc. funnily enough since the pandemic the talk of climate change has seriously reduced. it might be a luxury we cant afford.

i am sure cuts in budgets for fossil fuel will happen - but i bet a lot of that is due to oil price and macroeconomics - how much in reality will be transferred to green projects...? i suspect shell will be still trying get as much out of oil and gas for as long they can - otherwise the saudis will .

the jury is out on hur. everything depends on the plans going forward which we should know in the next two months. could the share fly? from these levels yes - with the right plans and good news. not that it will probably be enough for those 95% down. personally i think there will a move towards conventional oil plays - keeping the company going and the AM.

could it go to zero? yes that is also a possibility. red or black take your chance

well friday is usually CA day - so you just never know!

for taking a break read not employed (after resource downgrade by 90%) and nothing on the horizon.

well i guess it is fair enough. if the tech review is correct then the previous team have not exactly covered themselves in glory. not so much the outcome as that was down to the geology ultimately but the length of time and seemingly burying head in the sand has to be questioned.

if as i suspect they go for more conventional play then they will not need FB experts (failed or otherwise)

OIL and gas production in the UK North Sea is set to dwindle to next to nothing by 2050,

Well I thought we were supposed to stop using oil at all in 2 weeks or whatever stupid timeline they come up with....until the wind wont generate enough leccy etc. lol..

who knows what changes in the technology will have been made in 30 years?

BIM-agreed. I have always previously said it was a write off and priced in as such. However i was doing some digging on spirit recently - and from what i read and the delay in any formal decision it made me think the fat lady hasn't started her warmup. Not building hopes up but it would be nice to get a good surprise rns after a year of bad one or those with enough gaps to erode confidence.

dangerous to say with hur but i doubt it.

Alot if shares got creamed today. sentiment is low in hur and so was always going to overreact. covid is hardly a surprise anymore. yes economy is going to suffer but people will still need oil...opec will look after oil price in my opinion - too many countries are going to need the money...

slift - good move in my view. will go back up towards 3p at least in my opinion.

the other thing is that there could possibly be a surprise rns dropped regarding spirit at any time. I always thought it was a dead duck and already priced in that they wont proceed but they have taken so long over it which leads me to think that they may still be considering at least - and they will have to make plans fairly shortly one way or the other.

by the law of averages there must be one positive rns dropped at some stage!..lol

I hope hur are getting some compensation or kickback from facilitating it

genghis - you know that i have had issues with your posts over the last year. not the overview - you are entitled to be negative on the share if you wish - in fact I welcome the opposite view to check my own thoughts. However it is your often seemingly deliberate manipulation of figures that does you no favour. for example i remember you started with one cost($32 / barrel) then the next post you have gone up to $35 the next is then almost $40 - with no basis for this increase. it does seem disingenuous. you were then posting as if fact that it was $40 per barrel

even last week you said the old figure at 20k prod was $28 when we have had enough conversations of it being $26. If you start with a wrong figure by the time it gets adjusted for current production it is even more incorrect.

yes you may say you can't remember exact - but strangely your figures are never inaccurate as lower only ever higher

fandg2 - agreed. I have to say i was surprised that they even addressed the "delay" in October's lift - a welcome reaction to board speculation for once. Maybe a sign of better comms to come

Dark
"Because everyone here said it was *guaranteed* to go up!!!!!"

i hope that is a joke? if not with all respect that is a recipe for disaster. you need to read peoples posts for awhile before you can make any decision on whether they should be taken notice of and/if they have any agenda.
For example i have been involved in hur for a long time - i clearly think there is upside and post accordingly. i try to be balanced and listen to both sides but how impartial can i really be ? - i invested my cash after all. it is my interest for the SP to rise.

this is the advice i would give to anyone new to the boards

hur valued itself at $383m on their balance sheet - £296M or SP of 15p ish.

However clearly the market does not share this idea of their valuation. Personally i have no idea how to value HUR and believe everything depends on the forward plans which should be released before xmas. red or black again. The sentiment is very poor with HUR and this seems to ultimately drive the SP.

What will change sentiment?

good forward plans and/ or spirit plan for Lincoln could boost the SP and sentiment. On the other hand no clear plan and there is a serious risk that lancaster will prove uncommercial mid 2021.

There could be considerable upside or downside. I believe there is a good trading opportunity within the band that it is currently oscillating in with the right entry and exit price. Good news could come at any time but so could bad news. As a long term investment - this will only be clear once forward plans determine whether hur has a long term future.

thats my view for what it is worth. DYOR. GLA

Until we know their plans we have no idea on how much cash they need and if we can cover it all from existing or if there is a shortfall. They could go for a JV or other options involving stakeholders. The said there were no plans for a placing but of course that could change.

it is something to consider going forward

genghis - from memory it was $26 at 20k per day..but $35 cost per barrel is reasonable figure. remember that was based on 90% uptime . the maintenance was planned already so there is only the stop at beginning of august and this new data gathering. if they dont have any more then this 90% would probably cover it.

so that is $7 profit per barrel at today's prices ($42.64). It is only an approx as there will be extra costs and savings etc.

genghis - i think from memory we were at roundabout $32 for 15k?..I cant be bothered to trawl back either....so lets say $34 for worst case scenario?

i don't think they would be expected to give cash balance on a production update? lets be honest whatever they do or do not do - someone will read negatives.

As i said yesterday i think HUR is priced for failure at the moment. so any rns showing it is still a going concern with a possible future - is pretty good in my book. i am so used to seeing bad news that my heart sinks on any rns dot!

genghis

they stated that they needed 10k bod at $40..hur is currently producing 14500 - with a guideline of 12-14k for Q4. brent is $42.44 as i type. So they are making a profit which given the current macroeconomics is pretty good.

the water cut has increased by 1%- whilst no increase is good this is pretty good news considering .

yes the cash has been earmarked but they are saving on the bond fees - and they would still have had to have the cash for the decommission anyway. so sounds like a sensible move to me.

All in all pretty good rns

thanks slift - i am trading so in and out. currently in

Unfortunately a well known AIM commentator was generous enough to contact me with his take - I listened but still held. Had I listened I would have been out at 16p i think. tbh i probably have recovered that partiular loss (16-5p) through trading. but it still leaves me heavily under.

I take your point with PMO. something is better than nothing. However that is some haircut

Slift - agreed. I take responsibility for my investment/loss. I always assumed the risky part was the first 6 months after first oil - because at any time during that period i thought pack of cards could come tumbling down. unfortunately every month of production that went by i felt more secure ....

I have to say i do feel somewhat aggrieved that i heard presentations / CMD that results were better than expected and water was perched blah blah....that is a huge lesson learnt. Again i had people who clearly know a lot tell me otherwise. but i kept my faith in Dr T. Still that was my choice and my responsibility

i still think there will be some twists and turns in the hur story - and i still have a niggling feeling that they move to a more conventional oil company - either through the sandstone or other acquisitions. they have the AM and I think they will try to find a way to keep it running and the company. but this is pure guesswork on my part - so not to be taken as any ramp or investment advice.

At the moment i see the company priced for failure at 2.7-3.5p range. If it lands on black we will be worth 0 on the flip side if it lands on black - and the company can sort itself out - then who knows where we could end up.

I really don't want some news like PMO yesterday as its shareholders got well and truly rogered.