Member Info for CaptainSwag

Dive - i thought they made it clear that the new CPR would be done by a different company

john - the CPR was never a guarantee that oil would be produced. The bond holders must have been aware of the risks. they were willing to take it. Of course whether they are willing to take further risks is another question.
the bonds were trading at a significant discount the last time i heard. the hope is that good forward plan will increase sp and bond price.

not long to wait. GLA

john - surely there was more risk for the bondholders when the bonds were initially taken out? At that stage hur had no income and there was not even any guarantee of any oil production. Ok the share price was higher but if lancaster had not been able to produce or dried up after a month the SP would have been zero,.

the whole point is that with a good future plan they will stabilise the company's future and increase revenue. the sp will rise and the bond holders have more chance of getting their money back as well as the coupon.

fred - the company had already said that the possible issues would arise late 2021 - which is why they have to look at a future plan. they seem to think water injection will work - and the modifications to the AM would seem to point in that direction as the first step.

I agree there is a binary feel to the next rns - pretty much like how september felt. I do not see there have been any delays in the news. they said by year end - all along which i took to mean just before xmas. i think we will get an update whether it is the full details or just an interim

they have to ring fence the money as the "worst case scenario" - that is good finance procedure. if it doesn;t get used for p&A It will no doubt be put to drilling expenses.

Slift--I agree with upping the production which is obviously the forward plan whichever way they go about it.. Water injection sounds the quickest.. I would like to see another well... Whether they can plan/ finance this at the moment I don't know... I also suspect there may be plans for the sandstone... I wonder if they could use well 7 for this as it is clearly an issue as a Fb play?

I thought all the plug and abandon costs had already been ringfenced..?

I still think hur could go down more conventional oil routes as well..

slift - at the current mcap i cant see hur doing a placement...what is the most they could raise? £30m?..not exactly going to do much... they said in september there were no plans to - i know that means nothing on AIM but i really cant see the benefit

i am sure they would look at a farm in - it would be great if it could be at halifax..but I am not sure in the current climate how feasible that would be. at lancaster yes and if allowed another well to be drilled could be good.

i suspect they might be trying to renegotiate the bonds - extend ? and increase? of course they would have to sell it - which means come up with a good plan. in their favour is that current bond holders would probably lose out if hur couldnt carry on - so they might see it as a way of getting their money back.

Mr. big - i have always tried to look at HUR as an all round picture. I got it badly wrong with the drop from 60p to 2.5p because I believed in trice when enough people were telling me otherwise. my choice my responsibilty .....I still think we are in a red or black phase - which i hope will come up red with a great new forward plan. of course the negatives pointed out are there as well. i believe there are good trading opportunities up to the rns - after who knows?

it is ok to have a critical or even negative view on hur - however it would be of more use with a constructive argument that people can digest rather than the polar opposite to "20p by friday " type of post with absolutely no reasoning or logic - asnd clearly by someone who has done very little if any reserach on the company..

AWK - good to see you back. I miss your postings. Whether i agree or not you are always worth reading.

the theory on the big boys is very very interesting and worthy of consideration - i do agree the oil companies are in no way altruistic - however i personally see it as the new bod have told the situation as they see it. It explains the issue of water cut increasing - which trice had plenty of opportunity to do. he just got snappy when asked specifics and then signed for hush money. not good signs in hindsight. of course he may still be in the background may even be behind CA acquiring more - another conspiracy theory.

i still dont think the HUR is anyway over - the angle the critics come at. FB has not proved the immense success we all dreamed of - maybe they were unlucky or negligent (too close / wrong choice of fields) with wells but the macroeconomics means that there is no longer the appetite for exploration. however the oil company without trice could easily transfer to more conventional plays. the sandstone? would be great if that comes good or move / merge to
other plays.

the thing is that hur are producing oil - the oil price is in a much stronger position and i see it being supported by opec rather than letting SA and russia play big boys and destroy it. they are out there and have the AM for as number of years. there must be options even if the existing set up isnt working. yes the bonds are an issue but there is enough time to get the company in a position where they can be refinanced without any drama

just my thoughts

elementary - true. we have increased by 100% ish over the last month.

however AIM rises are too often followed by drops unless it is a complete rerate. a rerate might be possible with a great RNS but there is the danger that the rise of a decent rns is now priced in...

GLA

MA(100): 3.89 MA(250): 9.986

cant buy a bean on hargreaves or halifax but can sell all my shares - very strange...clearly MMs are neediung to accumulate stock

wabu - i have felt the same. if you cant beat them join them. If the forward plan is good then hur should be a good inverstment though the recovery will prob be long and slow.

haven't been able to buy anything for ages on hargreaves?...can sell £20k with halifax no problem. indicates to me that this will go up later in the afternoon.

bot - it is a difficult one to judge - and you are never going to get it right you just have to take profits when you can..if you sell it will breeze through if you don't it drops..murphy's law!!

- I have exited my trades in the last couple of days at near 5p as it seems to be a psychological resistance point even though officially R1 is 5.4p ish.
This morning is a great opportunity in my opinion for a trade. I have made two purchases and sitting on my hands to stop anymore...

fandg - i agree. I suspect little meaningful stuff will be done in the gap between xmas and new year . this gives 9 trading days for update - so not long to wait

the drop this morning is another nice trading opportunity - thanks!

dire - i suspect they have already made their plans for 2021...prob just a question of dotting the Is and crossing the Ts. We should know soon and hopefully it will give a clear future for HUR in which case the SP should start on the long road to recovery.

one of my fears was that trice would be dumping his holding this week - as his 6 months were up. either he hasnt or they have been absorbed without detrimentally affecting the price.

the rns is still going to be a red or black - which is why people should think carefully of being in or out......fear v FOMO. you have to make your own choice and responsibility.Currently i am holding 500,000 shares which is profit from recent trading so a free carry. this makes me fairly relaxed on the gamble. As someone who was a lth for years and has lost a lot in investing it i hope the next rns is the turnaround that i think the lth deserve. i see myself as more of a day trader in hur until there is more certainty in the future - and still think there is some good opportunity prior to rns.

lam - that is not what i meant!..lol ...personally i think HUR will come up with a plan to move forward. whether it will be as attractive as hoped is the billion dollar question.

i would not be surprised if they start targeting the more conventional plays. Also they have the rig for a number of years - nothing to stop them working with another company if the water cut starts getting out of hand etc.

the CPR is due by march - i think - so I would doubt any take over bids until at least then.

daltry - anybody who was here in september would note that as soon as they said news before xmas/end of year - i said it would go right to the wire. That is aim.....nothing new or unusual...AIM news is always later than hoped for. I have always expected news on xmas week regardless of anyone saying "my mate knows a mate who knows a mate who says there will be a rns on xxxxx"

still plenty of trading opportunity here in my opinion...whether one wants to be in or out for the rns drop.

GLA

bot - unfortunately until the forward plan update no one knows for sure about this company. As a LTH and trader i am desperately hoping it is good news. HU deserves it.

I would really doubt the RNS can be prediucted for thursday? my mate knows a mate knows a mate etc

hur have told us they will update prior to xmas - my guess is still at the last moment...though i suppose mathematically thursday has as much probability as any other working day between now and xmas...

still plenty of time for some nice trades in my view

GLA

fangd - the new board made a point of telling us that it was a different crowd doing the new CPR. read what you will into that.

i am just questioning if the process is at all like getting an MOT....if you just want the paper you can get it - but you wont know the safety on the car. if you want a real proper check you might not pass.

The point is that if the figures that were released by the board in the kitchen sinking had been in the original CPR - would the project have ever gone ahead?
there is no comeback on any party doing the CPR as they have a disclaimer.....i am suspecting that most CPRs are to get a project off the ground - i am sure that there is always the possibility for shennaigans....not saying it was the case here..but,,,just maybe