Member Info for CaptainSwag

slift - i still think the CPR will have an increase in sandstone resources - enabling a more conventional play - for them to sell to possible JV partners

if it remains focussed on FB then i suspect you may be right about the sell out.

i cant make up mind on whether the bod are incompetent or untrustworthy. should be revealed soon.
i think with a good future plan - whether FB or conventional - new investor/traders could do well . however i doubt any of the LTH will ever recoup their losses

pandy - what risks do you see? Personally i think the gov contract has totally de risked ODX.

great post disciple - i have been thinking the same. which is why i stated on a previous post that this changes the ball game for omega - selling tests abroad and opening up connections for any future products etc...the govt contract gives them credibility like nothing else.

they will also have the cash to branch out to other products if they should choose. this is one of those company making points - which is why the last rns was such great news. I loaded up big on the day - having already made good profits from being in sub 50p - because the risk has gone.

if they still had just been tied to one test - there was always risk of not getting the necessary approvals or the test becoming redundant with changes in variants

GLA - i am expecting the SP to be at least a £1 by friday...the MMs have scooped up the shares they need and those who wanted to turn a quick profit or got nervous are out. I believe it will go up now and with the right news- who knows !

agreed slift. mid feb and still no rns of the forward plan. sold up my hur last week. we must surely be due news of finance plan soon - and that is a worry. good news and i will be back in...

i hope it comes soon as the CPR is due in 6 weeks - and that will give a SP boost in my opinion.

i think they have played a blinder - producing whatever test is wanted.

sure the producer of a "winning " test will probably do better in terms of revenue- but we will be a safer bet at this stage imho.

hopefully news of TT /CE this week...and then definite contract numbers.

bankrupt - with all respect it sounds like you need to wipe your own botty first- besides I am quite able to do my own. sorry you have lost heavily and I do hope you make your money back

"i have been in the same position previously with another share that seemed full of promise, but they didn't deliver sadly. Not saying this one won't of course "

what same position? in a share that just got a government contract that is going to substantially change its fortune?
seemed full of promise but didnt deliver - not saying this one wont.??? - so????then what has that share got to do with ODX?

Sorry but this post makes no sense (to me)...

do you think the government has contracted ODX to manufacture must needed LFT and then wont order? millions?

Yes the risk is a lot less as a government contract has been secured. ODX can manufacture whatver the govt needs and be paid for it. If better tests come along as the virus variants increase then odx can supply as they are not tied to one particular test. they can also manufacture any tests that are more profitable.

the gov contract will possibly help with TT and CE and surely give credibility to help overseas sales. the fact the gov are involved also cements the reputation of the company - we know it is not an AIM lifestyle company.

we dont know the future of the virus / testing but this has put the company on the map and the market capital is undervalued at present as we dont know concrete figures. the company has the possibility to adapt in the future to increased covid testing or the capital to go in new directions,

As for the disappointing drop in SP - i think the drop was down to sell on news and also to enable the MMs to accumulate shares for the buys that were ordered or are coming. the price has been dropped to catch the stops and the shares will be sold at a higher price. it is how the market works.

worse case scenario is that the company will have revenue of £150m as indicated by fincap research...this is the current Market capital - so the SP will increase. just needs patience

in my experience pedro is correct.

Can you give some examples of your experience jonno?

My theory is the RNS sent out in December that dropped the SP was worded so negatively to drop the SP and so allow for dilution at a higher price, say 3.5p

why would dilution occur at a higher price than SP?....who would want to pay more for thec shares?

at best the discount is at a few % less than SP

fever - the CPR will be an improvement on the current profile - no point in doing it otherwise. my guess is that the conventional reserves etc will be increased .they have already hinted so we will now get an actual figure. i suspect they will then "sell" this as the way forward and that it is less risky than FB - with the issues we have had over the last year and a half.

the timing of rns release and wording will be very important for sentiment. if the release an rns with upgrade and some form of dilution it will probably get lost as sp will drop to placing price anyway. so i think it would be best to have two separate rns. upgrade before dilution will mean placing etc at a higher price. however upgrade after will increase sp after the drop....

in my opinion china will be the dominant country in the near future both economically and military wise. they have come out of this whole coronavirus situation better than their rivals - probably even made money by producing PPE and Vaccines/tests etc. they have no doubt watched the west crumble with dealing with it and taken note. The release of a similar virus in the future could be used as a very effective warfare in my opinion.

in addition culturally the western societies are becoming very divisive and the worry would be they start to disintegrate.

An issue is whether politicians in the west will resist or take the lucrative rewards. does a Biden USA look likely to resist China as much as in the past?

simonlee - LMFAO! Yep sounds about right.....if not there will surely be an rns from hur - saying we know of no reason why the SP should go up!..lol...thats what they normally do

i suspect that the CPR will focus on the oil in the sandstones....conventional play that hur can go for and "sell" without the FB risk...

well it is listed as a well intervention - not sure what that means?

there are sections for decommissioning and drilling - so it would seem not good or bad news? they still got gauges etc there...i wonder if anything to do with that ?

it is lincoln - so not sidetrack

cash - i haven't been following hur so closely these days - i am invested heavily in another stock these days. i checked the shorts disclosed yesterday and it was the usual suspects and they were about 3.2%. so there hasn't been much closure since i last looked. from memory it was about 3.5% before? or did it get to a higher percentage?

be interesting to see if they change just prior to any news. some of us have often felt hur is a bit leaky

good posts bear

i agree with you. i would be very interested in the new hur. i have only a tiny holding left in a sipp (150,000 shares) which of course i would not like to see further diluted or decimated any more. however a new hur could prove very profitable as a trader or new LTH. i suspect the old guard of LTH may never recoup their losses.

groundhog - if your post is aimed at me? i have stated the SP reflects the uncertainty - the dilution is in the background - so that uncertainty is priced in. if there is a placing - and we dont know there will be.-it will be at a further discount and the SP will drop to that price. so that is not priced in specifically as nobody knows what price it will be. if they placed at 2.4p there would not be much drop and it could be easily countered by the release of a good plan. dropping to an extreme of 1p would on the other hand a much different ball game. the sp will crash severely . what we dont know is the appetite for a placing etc

the interesting bit is going to watch the timing of any placement (if there is to be one.) with news such as plan and CPR. the sensible route would be to release good news |(cpr/plan) and then do a placing at the SP rise. however i have an awful feeling that is not what the board will do. i fear it will all come out at the same time as good news - which will not help PI.

Albie - it is interesting the stance that CA have taken. CA presumably got involved because of a certain gardener. They seem to be still supporting the direction that said gardener was pursuing before he "departed". now what would be really interesting is if they intend to do anything about it other than rattle their sabres.

makes you wonder if there are any plans afoot

jonno - why would anyone subscribe to a placing that was higher than SP in market?

groundhog - i doubt ver much that a placing is already priced in - since nobody knows at what price it would potentiually be. the whole uncertainty and lack of details of forward plan is priced in. A placing at for example 1.5p is most definitely not. the only thing we do know is that thanks to the brilliantly drafted december RNS any placing price will be a lot lower than it could have been. which means more dilution. since the bod have negligible alignment with share price and continuing to draw a wage it will not cause them any sleepness nights.

the only light at the end of the tunnel is that if/when it is announced the sentiment should return with the new works program.

agreed albie. and if there is a placing the sp will drop to the placing price