Member Info for CaptainSwag

btfaith - it is good that the hur hasn't plummeted - however i think it might take time before the full ramifications are appreciated. the CPR should still be good news but - the effect will be limited if they cant afford to drill....the only other potential good news in the near future is if the water cut is not increasing. hur survival is dependent on POO and water cut being contained. 2022 is a long way away and the bubble point was expected H2. POO has hopefully extended this enough

what we have wanted since september is a clear indication that hur has a future - unfortunately this rns has made it even more questionable

suresh - were you a fly on the wall!. sounds pretty accurate to me.

i read somewhere that opec will probably increase production. price possibly adjusting on this

Dive - I am not sure that the current oil price eliminates the risk of dilution. However hopefully it has reduced the extent of any possible dilution. Regardless it will be the price of any placing that will determine where the sp goes.

Dive - but your figure assumes no drop in oil price? no guarantee that oil won't drop just because at the moment everyone is bullish. At the moment it is looking unlikely but if 2020 taught us anything it is not to take things for granted. for example opec decides that with higher oil price they want to produce more?

i disagree - i think it is very dangerous to assume there will no longer be dilution - do you have any evidence that the company has changed its position?

ultimately everyone has to make their own decision with their own cash. Personally i am out until the forward plan and how it will be funded is settled. i will return if it looks good.

i dont know if the prospects are looking better - the delay in announcing forward plans offsets any improved sentiment on oil price for me.

March will be the month - as CPR is expected by the end and the forward plan must surely be announced . GLA

DYOR - the company warned of the downgrade beforehand and boy was that some downgrade. none of us were expecting that much. so you ignore their warnings at your peril. Anybody buying /holding now cant say they werent warned that dilution was on the cards.

they need sidetrack and water injection - which they dont have enough cash to do both. i think if possible that the sidetrack should be self funded and got on with immediately . they can then use extra cash etc towards water injection. .etc....but who knows which route they will go

the positive on oil price is that it is delaying the bubble point.....fingers crossed that any water cut increase is slow

notaflipper

"It should be noted that there is a risk of dilution to existing shareholders from a possible restructuring and/or partial equitisation of the convertible bonds. Furthermore, if no agreement can be reached with the Company's stakeholders on additional investment, further development activity at Lancaster might not be possible. In such a scenario, Lancaster could continue to produce from existing wells before reaching the economic limit, the timing of which would depend on oil prices, actual production levels delivered and the level of cost savings achievable. The field may then be decommissioned, with potentially limited or no value returned to shareholders. "

The above from December's RNS indicates to me that there is a probability of dilution - they wouldn't mention it otherwise. Hopefully with more income generated through increased oil price if there is it will be to a lesser extent

Thanks for your take on it regulator

so are you saying that possibly a "gentleman's agreement" has already been made (*wink*) but from the outside it has to look impartial. A bit like when company's advertise a job but the position is pretty much guaranteed to someone internally? still has to be advertised though it is already been pencilled?

thanks regulator - but i still dont understand how the gov can give equipment at such an "early" stage?

regulator - i am confused. Surely if the government have issued equipment then ODX have gone past the award stage? that newspaper article suggested the three approved suppliers so they must have won a bid already?

i have always been a bit dubious of the CPR process - as presumably they are just going over the data supplied by the company in question. Presumably the company will have already come up with their own opinions - and the CPR is just getting a third party to "sign it off"...

i might be cynical but it always seemed to me like a nice little earner for the CPR company... and unlikely they would go against the company's findings unless they didnt want to work for that company again? there are so many disclaimers written in that it is doubtful there will ever be any comeback on CPR company.. i am also suspicious of the length of time it can take? almost like it has to justify the no doubt extortionate fee charged

this is why i strongly suspect the new one will be an upgrade on the kitchen sink

dav- the rns will have (or should ) reflect only the truth. Therefore it may not be what the company wants to say or the shareholders want to hear. there is both the possibility of great or terrible news. i made the same mistake last year after numerous bad rns the law of averages said that the next one must be good - the next ones the kitchen sink of september!

davhaz- people have different reasons forcoming on the board - info/venting/trying to influence the price etc. in reality i doubt what any of the posters on here write has any influence on the SP - so all the anger at ramp/deramp is really wasted.

i have been in this share a long time - am currently out but hope to get back in if/when i feel the time/price is right and there is a definite future. i dont feel that is the position currently but will still read and absorb and react to posts on here.

one could say if you have true faith in your shares then there is no need to get wound up by what others say. thats how i felt about hur - all last year even though the price tanked again and again

mary - with that amount of cash (if correct) i think the cash would best being used to fund sidetrack - get that working. hopefully generate more income and then do water injection. if the cash can keep coming in they will either be able to sort bonds out or refinance. the price of oil has changed the landscape in hur favour- lets hope it continues.

my fear is that they will dilute rather than use the cash. obviously anybody getting in post dilution will do well but lth worse

dive - when do the FCA ever do anything? AIM has the reputation of a wild west saloon - look at all the dodgy companies from the usual suspects like lenigas - and nada ever

gino - normally when i hear rumours like yours on these boards my BS detector starts sounding. however what you say is potentially feasible - especially given the delays in announcing finance and forward plan. there are also question marks as to why the bod have decimated the SP with very badly devised rns since trice left - and the worry was always a sneaky sell off

"Crystal Amber don't want to do workovers. Bond holders don't want to commit to potentially forking out $100M on kicking a sidetrack and water injection, CPR isn't as bad but not worth the risk"

the CA part would surprise me as they seem to still believe in the Fractured basement. the bond holder bit i could easily believe in. the bit about the CPR could well be true too - i am sure it will be an improvement but maybe not enough considering the two existing wells disappointing
water cut performance.

i could definitely see someone after the tax rebate - and i suppose a takeover company could just run the existing well to bubble point and then move the AM on to another well. hur has been leaky in past so could possibly account for the recent rises .

very interesting. fascinated to see if any truth in it all

i think it is safe to say that HUR are pumping the oil out - they would have to RNS if there was any change. the price of oil is great news for HUR.
the issue is not what is happening now but when the bubble point is reached est H2 of 2021. thats why the forward plan needs to be announced quickly and how it will be funded. there is a weather window and if missed it will cause serious issues.

the CPR is due by the end of next month. Usually on aim theses things are left to the wire - so i am not expecting it much before if at all. the CPR will be an improvement on the kitchen sinking - i am sure

the price movement is interesting - hard to know if leak or just people speculating on the release of CPR/forward plan.

hopefully news soon - and we will all know one way or the other

topcat - he the benefit of my doubt until the xmas rns. one would have to question what he had actually done to earn his first 3 months of salary?
this is his first time in this job role - lets hope he is learning quickly.

the board's job would have been to monitor trice - clearly they could possibly be classed as negligent - with the sudden rush to get rid of him and kitchen sink the prohject. should never had got that bad

dire - i think anybody hoping for director buys is deluding themselves. They had 3 months from september's appointment to xmas rns - where in effect nothing happened that could be classified as insider trading - no plan /finance- and nobody bought. previous buys were token buys in my opinion with back of the sofa cash....probably thinking to appease shareholders after awful kitchen sinking. the board are not buying shares. they may not be stock market people just wage takers who knows?. in reality i dont think it matters as long as they do their job and sort the company out.
whats more to the point is that the plan which "should " have been anounced in december- is still not by the end of february.