Member Info for CaptainSwag

Dick - agreed they need a clear plan to start negotiations with stakeholders - which is why a decision should have made before now. Unfortunately there is an all too short weather window in the extreme conditions of the licence. If the necessary approvals and rigs are not booked in a timely fashion they run the risk of missing them. Clearly this would be a disaster for HUR if as expected by some that they will be running at a loss by the summer of 2021.

it seems to me that the decision is to sidetrack or not ? - which will give the time for funding water injection - and then the stakeholders will decide on their bit or not. It seems quite binary as time is running out.

dickbat - fair point. However the RNS says that a firm decision hasn't even been made - the least I would expect. In addition they have not even commenced talks with stakeholders. Again a process which takes time and should have been at least started. of course maybe the talks will be dependent on the decision and / or vice versa. Kicking the can down the road clearly doesn't.

awk

good to see you posting again. I agree with you that 12,000 bod from one well is pretty good. However I am not sure how long that will be the case for and with only one well in action they will probably be running at a loss within 6 months.

unfortunately i agree with you on the new bod. I was willing to give them the benefit of the doubt but that last RNS would indicate my trust was misplaced. As far as I can see, currently there is no plan - only options which should have already be formalised by now. I would question what "considerable progress" has been made in the last 3 months - as the RNS did not indicate any to me. If the PI can see how precarious HUR's situation is then I would have expected a lot more from the bod. Stakeholder conversations and agreements should have been completed by now. Maybe the fact that it is the first CEO position for our leader is a factor.

slift - i think this is another real disappointment. GWA was a disaster - I didn't give that enough value at the time. I thought oh well lancaster is doing better than expected (to quote trice) and the big one is always there - halifax. However what GWA did do was blow the JV and confidence in the concept. In hindsight they would have been better to drill halifax with spirit. i can see that they gambled on sharing the lesser of the assets and keeping the best for themselves - but i suspect halifax may never get drilled now. OK it may still get a downgrade in terms of resources/reserves but it still could have been the best.

slift - i see your timeline in pretty much the same way. I wonder if the sidetrack will be dependent on getting finance for water injection? either both or game over?

gold - top up now or wait for dilution? if you think there will be dilution - you should sell not top up.

ground hog - thank you and same to you. I really hope hur turns it around - it is a great story and LTH don't deserve to lose hard earned cash. it is not like this was supposed to be a lenigas type of company
yes i thought today would be the day of rns - since september. so wasnt far out. though i think they should have buried it xmas eve or between xmas and new year. would have been a lot better

groundhog - i agree nothing has changed since september (other than decrease in production and increase in water cut) . which is the issue - the plan should have been made and steps already put in action.
it could bounce back if there is good news- or the whiff of a rumour. this wont be until mid january in my view. so re ready for a lot more pain. i still hold tiny pot in a sipp just in case.

when the results of GWA came out i wrote off any future work - it was game over.. As time has gone on I optimistically thought that no news meant good news - it certainly wasnt a no.
my suspicion now thinking more on it is that spirit are not making a decision in case a future buyer may be interested.....if they get a buyer and they are not interested it gets plugged if they are interrested they have an assets to bargain over. kind of not costing them anything and possible a sweetner on the deal...

lincoln never sounded a better asset than lancaster .......and quite frankly if they were going to JV with spirit it probably would be better on a well 8 at lancaster

fandg - mate I know the feeling. since september i have traded quite profitably - some of the time keeping the profits as shares to build up a free float. i had hoped a recovery would enable me to recover the large losses on the way down from 60p. that rns was a killer and it is with a heavy heart i sold up. i shouldnt but i am sentimental about hur. i hope it recovers as i would love to get back in and also trade all the way up,

fandg - actually that is another worry. the oil production is lower and the water cut is increasing. another reason for the action plan to have already been started. I suspect within 6 months they could well be operating at a loss - even assuming no issues with POO - and for the record i dont think there will be as i believe opec will need to support to price.
if the plan isnt well under way then..........
i still have a tiny pot in a sipp (150,000 shares from memory) - i am starting to think it might be best to cash in the chips.

fandg....fair point. what do you consider "early" in the new year?

i am not sure how strongly i would pencil in something that was "subject to" . things on AIM also always take longer than expected....they havent been able to do it in the previous 3 months. as i said later my money would be on end of feb / march. if they miss the window of opportunity then that could cause serious issues...
fingers crossed

often there is a bit of a bounce after a very dramatic fall. However the week of xmas is probably the worst time possible. thinking about this rns - it would have been better buried between xmas and new year. Why would anyone want to buy now - ? lots of risk with only some hope of any reward. I also think that people will have had time to digest the rns fully over the weekend. the more you look at it the worse it gets. The price will drift as we have no news pencilled in the calendar until CPR at the end of March.

if the next rns is a placing then more suffering for shareholders. i suppose to balance things there could be good news - however at the moment i wouldnt see this happening before end of feb / beginning of march.

agreed Haggis. hard to tell if it is incompetency or if it is indeed an agenda. if you want to raise money then that wording of the rns is not the way to go about it.

keep well - the trouble is that any placing has to really be at a discount. this is why I have always doubted the feasibility of it - if you could only raise $20-30 million. HUR neeeds a lot more. However now I suspect that they would possibly do it to be able to use their available cash for the sidetrack. they still need a buffer to pay their wages!

the water injection clearly needs other funding. and the bonds will need to renegotiated etc.

interesting one on the CPR. i agree with slift that i am dubious now how much value will be gained now. before today if there had been a good plan to maximise lancaster then yes the CPR could have injected some sentiment
I suspect the resources will be found to increase somehow. the reality is that lancaster has not proved a success , Lincoln looks worse and the big one halifax has gone from a dead cert to another massive gamble.

with green being the current flavour and HUR's past track record - i think they will struggle to get any takers to gamble further.

bit of googling shows being bid on for north sea job?...interesting

thanks slift

what is Mark's rank? Is he above a Captain per chance?

lol.....

invest - interesting post

my guess on rns - basic .....water cut increased by couple of per cent. water injection planned for 2021.

I dont think there will be an update on spirit - as i see that being a separate rns on its own coming out of the blue. i think they may leave the decision until after it has been sold off - gives a buyer an opportunity to decide if they want it or not.

now good news would be the forward plan for another well or sandstone. good news on bonds or financing.

bad news - water cut increase ....planned water injection financing issues