Member Info for CaptainSwag

"Just for a laugh, maybe you could change your avatar to Captain Salad :)"

lol....i don't need to eat salad! trim enough!

karen - so let me correct you. you are the one guessing not me.
i don't have a clue what the issue is - just that there is one which we all know.. i don't think me writing this is anything unreasonable or deserving such scrutiny. so not sure why you are picking up on it?

i would have thought you had better things to do than seeming to always get a bee in your bonnet with what i write.? especially having said in the past you have zero interest in what i have to say.

oh dear...need a new keyboard!...snork....coffee

"You cannot nor can I guess the reason for the dispute, but It is not a fault with the product doing what it says on the can."

karen - is that is directed to me ? if so then you need to read what i have written rather than look for monsters under the bed.
i am in agreement that on the surface the ctda approval shows nothing wrong with the product itself - which is why i said it was great news on the day of the rns

i have not guessed anything .however the fact of the matter is that the dhsc do have an issue with the product - that is why they have not paid and made a legal claim. Personally i don't think they will win but until resolved there always has to be some doubt however small

wish - i actually think they should do as much as they can for dhsc. firstly they have big contracts to issue and we need the cash. secondly there was mention on here of damage to reputation of ncyt from dispute . so if dhsc want to continue to work with ncyt then that says the issue is specific to that product and that there is nothing wrong with the company per se.

HOWEVER - it is clear that the dhsc is not to be trusted and therefore the contracts and payments need to be especially robust and not allow the dhsc to play silly b*ggers

for my money yes they can.....and if ncyt do not achieve this then serious questions have to be asked.

they have already spouted £100m a year revenue in x number of years. they have also set a more than generous LTIP on an SP double that. so the company is saying they can. time to start delivering

brent - really? i must be being particularly thick this morning? unfortunately not an uncommon occurrence!..lol

i criticise the bod - in particul;ar one root vegetable- who are paid to be the experts in the field.

so what you are saying is that as a lth i can only have a view if i know absolutely everything?

anyway - i have never even noticed you on here before ...so thanks. you have a good day!

actually quite like the sound of that train!

choooooo choooooo

thanks wilson.....does it limit who they can sell to in the mean time?

brent - if i had not had an answer on here i would have researched. kind of the point of the board for me - to get info? i don't claim to be a "know it all". i do pick stuff up as i go along

clearly you use the board to be a key board warrior and have unnecessary pops at people...i am guessing you don't say boo to a goose in real life?

great there is a new assay ...but curious why research only?

baby - thanks for the link. very interesting to read.

baby - a kitty of £180m is a very different proposition to ABDX..with that sort of money ncyt could really go to town with M&A. and buy something that they could really sell...on the condition they know what they are doing....might be a big IF there.

however totally agree the issue has long gone past the dispute ..
The market was waiting like many of us until April.....that was a disaster ...and with every meaningless update it gets worse.

where are you getting the rumours on the culture and environment within the company?..that is bad news if true

b2 - with all respect that is not how AIM works...no bad rns ever gets a rise. thinking otherwise is deluded in my opinion
the share got hit with the dispute over a year ago. it got priced in to a certain extent then but there was always possible future income which is why we were above CAB

the slide since has been down to the market seeing future revenue dry up. nothing has changed on that score

.if the kitty took a £50m hit then there is no way it is going to rise. yes all the bad news would be out and so the recovery could start. but the company would not be valued much more than CAB

H1 2018 - £6.427m
H1 2019 - £7.223m
H1 2020 -
H1 2021 - £4.600m
H1 2022 - £3.500m

and that is why no one is taking salad maister's claim of £100m revenue a year as something just plucked out of the air
sure it is the sort of salad everyone wants to hear esp LTH....but how / why? what justification

not on base business. if another pandemic comes out then maybe....otherwise just hot air wilting salad leaves

"If ncyt did lose but clearly explained in the RNS that the next impact to cash will only be £40-50m which will be spread over say 3 years and not the full £135m that has been claimed then I suspect the SP may actually rise from this level."

no way on earth we would rise if we lost the case.
we currently have £99m CAB and market cap of £76m ish....if we lost and had to pay £50m the i suspect we would go to market cap of £50m with sp of 72p or a 33% drop on the day,

the market does not give any value to the company at the moment as it sees no significant future earnings

now if we as i suspect win - our cash would be £180m and i could see the SP going to £2.60

byp - fair point. though the fact that the products got approvals must show the science behind it is sound?

mind you do have ncyt have any massive orders to lose?

"if we lose and DHSC win, the sp will drop heavily whatever wording is used. The reputation damage along with DHSC payment would destroy Novacyt."

i agree that the sp will crash but that is because the market judges that currently the only thing ncyt have going for it is the cash. losing will take a big chunk of that and sp will reflect new market cap . without the cash in bank ncyt is a very challenged revenue generator going forward

i am not sure the reputation will be so tarnished as the science behind the company is top class from what i can tell

A mixture CS

Karen you said "recently" so i took this to mean last couple of months.
if your term recently means as far back as the beginning of the year - i still maintain the biggest drops were down to management. ukraine war started on 24th feb we dropped 4p. (176p ish)

we had recovered up to 230p (though i accept bio probably played a significant part in helping the recovery.

april fool salad day brought the share down from over 200p to 146 ...where we stayed pretty much until the blinding update where we dropped to just over £1

the market is terrible - but i am afraid the two updates have allowed the market to punish NCYT to the full extent

"Do you not think the state of the market has contributed largely to the demise of the share price recently as well, or does being blinkered suit your agenda."

the most serious drop from 148p to 110p on the day of the RNS - Trading update and progress against strategy
the market clearly did not have much confidence in the future prospects so much so that it is now valuing the company at less than CAB

i agree that market is terrible and what it does is severely hinder any potential recovery. however the demise is fairly and squarely at the salad maister's door. you can bamboozle some people with salad but others will recognise it for what it is

the 4 weeks for DD is up on friday...and rns said should be transaction shortly after

no froth on twitter about odx as far as i can see. nothing much on here...

hashtag i bet someone has been logging all day waiting for me to post.....