Member Info for cadburyhill

The link below popped up in my Twitter feed this evening...there’s even a link in the article to the commercial agreement between ITX and Nouryon in natural hair products.

https://www.nouryon.com/news-and-events/features-overview/2020/leading-in-personal-care-products--naturally/

This company specialises in spotting and solving digital/broadband problems to improve digital experience for end users.
It’s directly relevant to our home working digital experience. It operates via global channel partners like Verizon and Vodafone. This will surely go from being a nice to have bolt-on service to a must have for any large organisation relying on a reliable customer and homeworker online experience.

Interesting to note the performance of ETX since Ali took over there....C4X and ETX have overlapping technologies (and already collaborate).
If the future is looking brighter for ETX, then it must also be brighter for C4X. Either that or ETX is just over-bought on Ali-hype....
The other angle here is scale: does Ali want to bolt the C4X platform on to his own? The more targets and the more tools could mean more license deals in less time - if he can coordinate it all.

Wonder if anyone will take advantage of this market dislocation to buy here today?
Given the huge success of the funding round last week and the implications that has for a stock with a sell side valuation over 300p, I didn’t think I’d get the chance. I genuinely thought/ think it should have gapped up to the 50-60 p range on the news.

Nice report from Hardman & Co today. It really is a compelling opportunity with lots of cash and a growing top line.
The report’s title is crushingly boring but the actual document itself makes a very strong case to accumulate here.
It’s hardly down today because there’s literally no one left to sell it. All current holders are there for the re-rate to come.

Looks like he was made to work out his contract on gardening leave for the last three months....that would suggest rolec are not particularly pleased with the move by him and his contacts book. This, in turn, suggests to me that he’s a proper hitter who can make a real difference to us...

Look at the late buying here... similar story at Ceres ( but in smaller size). These stocks are underpinned by institutional investor buying now...the professional investors need to show they’ve got this fuel cell theme at least partially covered.
I hope that gives confidence to private investors to try and hold on for the ride...if we have institutional buyers in size taking advantage of private investor panics to acquire stock then the best thing we can all do is starve them of stock and make them buy higher up.

agreed. institutional money clearly very confident to put money in at this level, despite market mayhem. with two clear catalysts ahead of end H1 (which is only June!), this is an outstanding risk/reward in my view...

Am really impressed with the thoroughness of the Hardman report. The best I’ve seen from them, I think. It gives me even more confidence in the company.
Note the valuation and peer analysis. It’s very, very easy for the valuation to get over 300p, but I won’t take the fun away from those who choose to read the doc....

I think that’s entirely rational as a strategy. You clearly run the risk of having to buy more higher up if there’s a positive RNS but you’re a grownup and you may well benefit from buying lower down, too.
For me, a long term holder of Ceres, ITM and AFC, this virus induced pullback isn’t fun but it is necessary. The stocks all moved very, very fast and that’s a problem because the investors I want to see building positions and appearing on the registers are the institutions, not more people like me and you. Institutions don’t like buying into price spikes like we’ve seen in recent weeks ( in fact, they can’t because the volumes are not there).
This ‘exogenous shock’ pullback gives these institutions the chance to start to build. Let’s hope they take the opportunity to start nibbling....The attraction of these stocks is that if these institutions have green sustainability / clean energy mandates, they’re going to have to buy one of these days. This theme just ain’t going away.

Def worth a look through today’s full year results slide deck at croda (obviously a key ITX license partner already), pasted below.
You can see just how well positioned Itaconix is in terms of the bio-products. It’s a space that all the global spec chemical companies are trying to land grab as quickly as they can.
And no, that’s not me making a claim that ITX will be bought-out tomorrow. I think it’s very likely to happen one day. But these global companies want to buy sales and will spend many 100’s of millions to do that.
The ITX sales line has only just started to take off so I think it a little too early for a bid. Besides, I think John Shaw and the team are having too much fun scaling this business to sell out too quickly and too cheaply.
The key for us is to patiently own stock for the next couple of years. That’s crucial to build wealth here.

https://www.croda.com/mediaassets/files/corporate/investor-result-downloads/2019/2019-full-year-results-presentation.pdf

A great RNS.
The two numbers to keep an eye on are actually the market cap and the share% owned by John and his management team (they have real skin in the game).
£5milllion market cap is just plain nuts for a company with its own installed and paid-for production facility and a number of globally branded green product lines, already supplying end consumers in North America and Europe.
Note that for this basic argument, I’m choosing to value at zero, the patents and ‘know-how’ around itaconic acid where these guys are global no.1, the potential markets in EM and Asia and potential product growth in a whole range of bio-plastics, nappies, etc etc etc.

The market has already started to aggressively price in future growth in the green hydrogen stocks ( AFC, ITM, Ceres, etc), surely green polymers are next??
Very exciting.

Interesting to note the RENE RNS - schroders have jobbed on a 16% holding to a German specialist fund. IF schroders were to keep us then the assumption would be that they will backstop / anchor any cap raise. This would be a significant vote of confidence in the business model and likely to protect us from any brutal dilutive raise....

Editorial note from the CEO:

“LOXL2 partnering
I attended the JP Morgan conference in San Francisco earlier this month and 90% of my time there was
devoted to discussions with companies interested in licensing our LOXL2 program. The discussions were with companies that have been engaged in due diligence since our last science updates in Q4 2019 and also some newcomers that are looking to build a portfolio in fibrotic disease after their own clinical trial successes in diseases such as Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis, Chronic Kidney Disease and NASH. There continues to be interest in both global and regional partnerships.”

I did take that as a given, but you’re right to point out that we might stay on AIM. I’d be disappointed if we do, however.
When you’re an engineering technology play with collaborations with some of the largest OEMs in the world, it just seems wrong to be stay on AIM. Ceres is a global leader now and should surely be on a globally recognised exchange.

Next FTSE review is March. Looking at the FTSE 250 constituent list by market cap, the probability that Ceres will enter into the 250, with all the attendant index and ETF buying, is very high.

Of course, anything could happen in the next few weeks but this should give comfort to private investors. Index inclusion risk may also spur other investors who have yet to make up their minds to take a view promptly.
I think machine buying around the index review will continue to drive this higher...The ETFs have no price sensitivity or choice. If it’s in the index, they’ve got to own it.

I reckon that if this RNS was released by a US company, the stock would be up double digit and tens of millions of $ of value would be added to the market cap. Of course, because AGY is completely off everybody's radars, despite RNS evidence that a chinese company is a buyer of the stock, we get nada.
This is one of the great if not the greatest misspricings on AIM at the moment, and given the Woodford debacle, that's quite an assertion for me to make.
Lots of cash, lots of great science, lots of top line growth....

"The study illustrated that a single injection protected against systemic anaphylaxis, as demonstrated via subsequent in vivo challenge, skin prick testing and oral challenge."

These articles are actually written by bots... the bot just strings together stock phrases and lifts numbers from last accounts and recent stock price performance ....as you say, they’re absolutely useless yet every click on the page adds up to a revenues from advertisers on the site.

Am bullish here, although the wider market may take it down towards 14/15. I think AFC can trade up to a market cap of around £250mn without a strategic investor on the register and/or a major partnering/license deal. It’s clear they can raise capital at will. So waiting for the large cap raise, something I was trying to do, is likely to be a mistake in my view.
If they do raise a large amount of capital it will be at a price a lot higher than this and/ or via a strategic. With either a partner or strategic investor, it can join the others in the 500mn club.

I think management issued a trading update today because it thinks/knows that the seller is almost done.
There appears to be no logic in issuing an RNS like the one we saw today unless that was the case. IF you believed there was still a considerable overhang, then any management team would keep today's RNS back till later, because the seller would crush any buying enthusiasm and the positive message of the RNS would be wasted... That's my theory and I'm sticking to it!

agree with your first sentence, but i guess the wording had to be okayed by both sides.
I'm really pleased with the price action so far this morning. It suggests that the investor base has very few traders and that most/all of us are here for the long haul because we know what John and his team can do and deliver.
He's a substantial equity holder himself - as are others on the Board. It's really important / reassuring to see that management has lots of skin in the game.
As for the Itaconix product - well, the timing is fantastic and there are more product launches to come by the looks of it.
You only have to look at the charts of the hydrogen fuel cell plays like ITM, CERES, AFC to see just how excited the market can get on a green investment theme and bio-polymers, a global market growing at over 10% a year is a sweet place to be.