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not trying to ramp this or make a fuss, but the results RNS is worth a careful read.
It's a really well-run ship, this one. It's trying to control all the bits that are within its control. Management has wisely identified - earlier than most - that the revenue take-off point is a moveable feast and likely to always be further away than the operational budget allows. At some point, this stock, which has followed the classic 'Gartner Growth Curve' will accelerate on a top line that begins to build and a decent margin. We just don't know when. But they've built up the portfolio so carefully that I have a high degree of confidence that it's a case of when not if.
I'm happy to be parked here for the next year or so. It could always get taken-out. I've also left a bit of room in case they need cash in late 2020 although it's been really tempting to add below 20...

i WAS following the newsflow but my heart still leapt for a moment at the thought that it had been placed with a proper investor who felt as enthusiastic about the business at these levels as I do! good luck!

yes. got mine via H-L a couple of days back. there are three CVRs - one for each trigger event...

it's simply gone to Blackrock and is still up for disposal. The RNS simply tells us what we already knew, that the mandate was taken off Woodford with immediate effect, ergo he no longer is the holder of the Income Fund's TRX position.

yep, not denying it's a serious problem, Nom. Just that we're going into the real end-game now. There will be an imminent clear-out of the overhang at some point in the next few months and that could be a positive or a negative for holders and management.
Rene, 4D, SLN, etc have all seen big clear-out trades of woodford stock at their troughs. my point is that we're probably very near that point here, too. If buyers are reluctant, it's going to be tough on holders, I'm first to admit that. But hope springs eternal. I still like the way this business has been put together in recent years.

med tech has such a history of M&A that the most likely ending here is that the Woodford stake is taken by someone who then launches a takeover of the company. The big issue is whether the company has demonstrated a revenue line that is strong-enough to justify a take-out valuation that covers most investors for the losses they hold in this name. In some ways, today's news if good. It just makes what was implicit, explicit: the Woodford stake will be sold to someone at some price very shortly.

Well, the U.K. appears to be on the cusp of being investable again in the eyes of global markets ( all could deteriorate in a blink of an eye, I accept). I have started to wonder whether sentiment towards those names where Woodford is a significant holder might turn around very aggressively for a reason I had not considered before.... (I’m thinking Reneuron, Synairgen, Tissue Regenix, 4D, etc. ).
Perhaps, there’s a ‘dog that didn’t bark’ angle here? Perhaps Woodford has not sold down big in these names not because he couldn’t find a buyer and they are cursed by a massive overhang, but because these names have clear and very encouraging value catalysts in the very near term ( I.e. pre- Xmas) - catalysts that his other holdings just did not have.
Hence, he wants to sell into the catalyst and not before it, not least to show everyone that he can pick small cap winners ....For us here in Rene, an obvious value catalyst would be a US licence deal in RP; in Synairgen it might be a fibrosis licence deal via partner, Pharmaxis, etc etc.
It’s only an argument you can make when seeing the glass half full ( having necked the other half) but I thought I’d make it anyway.

yes, good to discuss...
special sit investors often play in highly illiquid credit situations. the fact that Novelion stock is OTC really won't phase them much.
but i take your points and there's no doubt that the price action has been disappointing and a surprise to me and others...

exactly...so novelion holders wait for the redistribution of the proceeds from the sale of the amyrt stake on the liquidation of novelion. see below. in fact, it may well be simpler than i've thought it was: perhaps the novelion stake is simply an overhang that needs to be cleared asap. but i still suspect that if novelion is or was trading OTC at a worthwhile discount to the proceeds of an amryt's stake's sale and its redistribution to novelion shareholders, then this is a trade that a special sits fund will try and exploit.

"The Liquidation Proposal follows the previously announced completion of the acquisition by Amryt Pharma plc (“Amryt”) of 100% of the outstanding equity interests of Novelion’s former operating subsidiary, Aegerion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (“Aegerion”), as contemplated in Aegerion’s First Amended Joint Chapter 11 Plan (the “Aegerion Transaction”). In the Aegerion Transaction, which closed September 24, 2019, reorganized Aegerion became a wholly-owned subsidiary of Amryt and Novelion received American depository receipts representing approximately 14.0 million ordinary shares of Amryt (the “Amryt Equity”) in full satisfaction of Novelion’s claims as creditor under the secured intercompany loan between Aegerion and Novelion.

At this time, Novelion does not maintain any ongoing business operations, nor does Novelion have any sources of revenue, and the Amryt Equity represents its primary asset. In furtherance of the Company’s duty to maximize value to shareholders and stakeholders, and after considering the limited strategic options reasonably available to the Company, the Novelion Board of Directors (the “Board”) called the Annual Meeting to seek shareholder approval of (among the other matters described below): (i) the voluntary liquidation and dissolution of the Company pursuant to the Business Corporations Act (British Columbia) (the ‘‘BCBCA’’) at a time to be determined by the Board, (ii) the Company’s plan of liquidation and distribution substantially in the form attached to the Proxy Materials, and (iii) one or more distributions to shareholders of any remaining property of the Company, all as more particularly described in the Proxy Materials (collectively, the ‘‘Liquidation Matters”).

I posted this back in early sept. It’s very likely that there will be a hedge trade in place with US special situations investors long Novelion and short Amryt and that might account for some recent underperformance. until we get the full pro forma numbers at the next set of results for ‘new’ Amryt, the long only institutional investors will stay away - its just too complicated. However, I’m still confident that this is a really compelling medium term story.

“12 Sep '19
It’s all here in this excellent link posted by gameangler. This is an arbitrage / special situation investor’s wet-dream so lots of stuff won’t make short term sense. For instance, the Amryt stock will be shorted by those going long Novelion stock so they are hedged and their gain is near risk-free. As the seeking alpha article points out, there’s a near three-bag opportunity in Novelion stock in the US because it will own around 8% of Amryt post transaction.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4290742-novelions-8_1-percent-stake-amryt-worth-1_50-share?dr=1

Article in The Times today...Wrightbus to produce hydrogen buses...Bamford a significant holder in ITM, as we know. Presumably this sets ITM up as preferred bidder for future hydrogen supply infrastructure to bus networks involving Wrightbus...The Bamfords will own stakes in the complete hydrogen transport supply chain. Next step - construction equipment, etc.

“Jo Bamford, son of Lord Bamford, the JCB diggers billionaire, has emerged as the likely buyer of Wrightbus, which fell into administration last month.”

again, a different indication than RP but the article is just a reminder that there are lots of efficacy issues for even the most hyped of technology in this space - gene therapy.
the industry is very used to dealing with failure and the data we have is many things but it's not that.
I think articles like this put our stunning first cohort and still impressive later cohort data in context. a US license deal is a lot more likely than this chart currently prices in.
https://endpts.com/stuck-with-a-phiii-gene-therapy-failure-at-96-weeks-gensight-prefers-the-upbeat-assessment/

just a few points to make.
yes, the data aren't presented in a particularly clear format in the RNS but i think management needed to indicate that results were good but were not as 'perfect' as the initial read-out. this may have been to temper expectations as the stock price ran up but we will never know. I will say, with some experience of science data, that the data from the first cohort was almost too good. mammals generate weird and wide-ranging reactions to treatments. There's a lot of optimisation and refinement that lies ahead of us so you can expect outcomes to improve. hence, my read is that the data is still very good and our chance of partnering is very high.

the conference presentation to the key science experts in this field in mid Oct is absolutely KEY. it will contain data arranged differently and perhaps new data that we have not yet seen. The company and the science leaders will be completely focused on that conference paper, not the RNS that has caused so much angst (and yes, this probably means the way the RNS was laid out was an Investor Relations misstep).

Arguably, the main priority for the share price to perform is to hack away at the Woodford overhang and clear it. For long term holders, a lower price for RENE that encourages more institutions to take stock from Woodford is a good thing. We should all be cheering at the volume of stock moving every day and not obsessing about the share price (but here I accept that the big moves have caused losses to some of us. we've all been there and it is gutting and i'm sorry to read about them).

It’s really exciting. A complete game-changer in terms of gaining access to a huge number of projects, globally.
Interesting to note that Air Liquide, the global competitor to Linde, took a similar sized stake in Hydrogenics, a Canadian peer to ITM earlier in the year. 4 months later Hydrogenics was taken out by a large US industrial group after a share price doubling ( in part because of the added credibility of the industrial partner).
our issue here is staying independent for long-enough to really see the share price gains long term holders deserve. A 2x from here really isn’t enough (but better than a poke in the eye).

The Woodford holding is still there...the only blessing from the share price being at these levels is that his holding will be diluted right down in any cap raise because there will be a massive new issuance of shares to raise sufficient funds to get them to break even ....
The concern is that the cap raise has not happened yet. I thought it would be announced on results day a few weeks back. Let’s get it done!

You raise a fair point, Nom, but I think you’re underestimating the operational leverage in the business. The current plant, already mostly if not all depreciated, is good to take orders/ production volume up to a sales equivalent of circa $15mn. There is very little incremental cost of goods from any new orders won.
In my experience, when you see business managers like the CEO/Chair/etc load-up the extent we have seen here it tells you one thing: they think they’ve got enough cash to get to breakeven and beyond and they do NOT expect to be diluted by a third party.
I’ve previously made the point that the share register changed so much over the summer that there was always ‘wood to chop’ till the register settled down. It’s disappointing to see us drift this low but maybe it shouldn’t be a worry/surprise.
I still believe this is one of the best medium term opportunities on AIM.

I think the WPCT sell-down was in July - that was when it was recorded in the financial press. That would imply that the Woodford overhang is still somewhere near 20%.....I guess we should assume that this is the case until we know otherwise. I'm not sure what the catalyst will be to clear it... Good news at Autolus is perhaps the most obvious. A deal in IPF by Pharmaxis in Australia?
In theory, we should all just relax. They've got a decent amount of cash to invest and they've invested in a decent range of interesting assets. They're doing all we asked of them.
At some point, the Woodford stake will provide someone with a neat way to take a decent sized position in Arix, which is pretty illiquid. I just wish for all our sakes it was sooner rather than later.

Ok, so the WPCT RNS today confirms that it has completed the disposal of its Arix stake. I guess that still leaves the residual holding in the Equity Income Fund....At least there’s now only one moving part to the Woodford overhang story. It’s going to be a relief to all of us when that clears.....

https://pv-magazine.us13.list-manage.com/track/click?u=2790e780a1533f4bc05c8679a&id=b9fa7032ad&e=8aff0a8380

it was part of the clean-energy / renewables bubble....if you plot a chart of a solar or wind stock, you'd get roughly the same story. those concept stocks without any revenues and in need of funding simply got crushed. IP Group, Griffiths and others bought Ceres, effectively out of administration. It was a great trade.
Like all great bubbles, there was some underlying relevance to it. We're just about to reap the clean tech bubble benefits, just as the big tech guys reaped rewards from the wreckage of the dot com bubble burst.