Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I think the seller is Aquarius...It has funds for high net worth individuals and has to return cash at the end of the life of some of its venture funds. I think Aquarius has had no choice but to be a partial seller of their position. It means nothing about the potential of the company or Aquarius's view of it.
As for recent newsflow...they've been quiet to be sure. Not much point making positive noise until the seller is finished because the share price gain overturned by the increased sell pressure. I think we will hear more when the seller is done. I also suspect that there's some M&A. When you look at ETX and C4X and some of the other discovery plays at such distressed valuations, it seems to make sense to pool expertise and relationships with big pharma and discovery targets to create something that the market can value more readily.
Not going to argue that this has been a good ride. Leaving the history to one side, the monitoring biz is b/e at least, whilst Gib is a deep out of the money call option I’d prefer to have than not. That leaves membrane.... it’s been a prob from the start. It’s technically impressive but the ultimate conclusion is that a tiny player with no balance sheet or connections cannot break into perhaps the longest cycle business sector there is - water infrastructure. Will the likes of suez or veolia be interested in it? I think so. IF it can generate some value to offset the debt facility is has consumed (<£1mn), then I’m very happy to buy the monitoring biz at 0.5x sales with the Gib option in for free.
You’re just not getting it. This was/is three businesses under one roof. It’s about to ditch the under-performer with no dilution. This is a great buy here.
am pleased with this RNS. it ring-fences the two parts of the business with real value - Gib (contract size - £23mn, and the fast growing monitoring business with circa £4mn of sales.). ...There's no reason why the market can't put 2/3x sales on the monitoring division valuation alone, once it has thrown off the yoke of the membrane business costs. Gib has always been and remains, the wild-card capable of putting us in the high teens if not 20's. Well done, management for (finally) gripping it. Good luck with the next stage.
Agreed. You won’t go far wrong at 130p. Just waiting for the Woodford RNS...feels like it’s close. There are decent sized tickets going through most days at the moment..... I then expect a reflexive move back up to 170p+....
I don't see a funding. I see a break-up of the group. They've tried a funding round at 5p to extend the runway but that didn't work. The problem then is the problem now - membrane isn't winning any orders and its burning cash the company hasn't got. the key questions are: is the membrane technology and patent portfolio worth anything? who would buy them if the company walked away from membrane? how much debt/loan-repayment would that leave the monitoring business to carry? how do shareholders retain exposure to gibraltar - if/when it comes through ?
the worst-case scenario is a heavy write-down of membrane. but can it be worthless? it feels like it should/could be worth something to an industry specialist. In any other scenarios, I think things could surprise to upside. I think monitoring is a great little business, growing well and fast with the Dow connection and an expanding chinese footprint. Gib - we can't see the contract but if there's a break because the politicians cannot transact, then Modern Water will be due compensation. But it feels like it will happen - it has to happen after promises from government/first minister....
thanks, useful update.
we're actually very early in the nouryon commercial uptake phase...their global sales people have only had the itaconix product to sell-on for a few months. there's a real risk that this accelerates as each quarter goes on. We could really see an aggressive J curve....
Perhaps most importantly, the vast majority of the orders will become repeat business, so that the sales growth really compounds higher and will do so for years....
thanks, Bio. agreed. it's a great stock at these levels with a cap raise out of the way...we've just got to see the back of Oceanwood, who seem to be the seller. Only another 3% or less to go.
that's a rational approach. I accept and respect that...
I also think buying a few shares with money that you can afford to lose is rational here, too. We all know that if they can find a non/marginally dilutive way out of this, then it's going to be up a long, long way.... It's always about risk vs reward on AIM - calculating the probability of a positive outcome vs the anticipated potential gain to scale the bet you put on.
let's hope it's Picardo, the first minister of Gibraltar....!
i actually thought their financing plan was very reasonable - with limited dilution for existing holder and sufficient room to allow them, if things go ok, to get through to the other side and b/e. I think you're under-estimating just how difficult it is to get any funding in place when your UK innovation space is in a bear market, your main shareholder is a seller out of choice/necessity and your share price has fallen for the last three years. Under those conditions, I think this excellent management team did a really good job and if you can tell me how they could have funded better, I'd love to hear it.
Sure, lots of execution risks ahead in a highly competitive market but it was a decent bet at 6p and it's an even better one at 4...
nor me...it's a 'reflexive' move...either someone has stopped (temp or permanently?) selling, or someone is closing a CFD short on a friday ahead of the summer...
my main worry here is that someone will bid for it and take it out in the single digits, when we and the management deserve so much more after years of hard-work/losses/frustration.
I think I know just how important today’s RNS is.... I’m delighted for the management team.
Of course, the day traders have overlooked us, but that’s no bad thing.
We’ve got a bucket load of cash, some compelling next generation environmental solutions for the paints and coatings industry, and some strong commercial relationships.
I think the questions we should be asking is ‘who is going to bid for us?’, and ‘will we be sold too cheap?’.
Paints & coatings is a globally consolidating sub sector. We are firmly on the radar of the big guys now we can deliver water-based solutions for industrial applications.
I really wouldn't be too disappointed if we don't see an RNS on trial progress. It's very likely that the company is in detailed licensing discussions with US pharma and others. They may even be in prelim discussions for a strategic investment - or even an outright bid. The point being that the management are under a lot of pressure on multiple fronts - delivering the RP clinical outcomes, the stroke protocols and recruitment, managing the new relationship with the chinese, etc. etc etc. Communication with the market is actually a lowish priority for the moment. And if they're in confidential discussions, there won't be a lot they're able to say anyhow.
We haven't heard any bad news re RP - which is great. Best strategy is to try to be patient and sit tight. They'll let us know what's going on as soon as they're ready and able.
Still feels like this really can go a long, long way higher in time. Good luck all.
Life IS better with Destitute filtered! I seek opinion that differs from my own but inane negative speculation offers no value at all.
This from FierceBiotech today. We could do with the Pharmaxis guys producing the goods soon (although ideally, the big news would come after we've cleared any overhang from Woodford - if there is one).
Boehringer grabs Yuhan’s NASH prospect in $870M biobucks deal
no mention of Amryt but posted for info...
The FDA recently released guidance to help companies develop new treatments for epidermolysis bullosa (EB), which is a debilitating and often fatal rare disease.
The six-page draft guidance offers details on considerations for clinical trial design, including trial population (estimates suggest 25,000-50,000 people in the US have EB), discussion of efficacy endpoints (i.e. effects on patients’ signs or symptoms such as itching, pain, blister prevention and wound healing) and special considerations to maximize patient comfort (i.e. allowing photo or video documentation of wounds during routine dressing changes in the home).
“In EB, defective epithelial integrity in the skin leads to chronic and relapsing wounds that predispose patients to repeated infections and may result in unwanted fibrosis and deformities as well as cutaneous carcinogenesis. Skin lesions are associated with itching and pain, the latter aggravated during dressing changes,” the FDA explains.
Several EB treatments are currently making their way through companies’ pipelines.
Last month, Krystal Biotech evaluated four EB patients in a Phase II trial with its treatment KB103, finding that multiple open wounds closed after treatment, although one of the patients dropped out because the trial site was too difficult to reach. KB103 has received Regenerative Medicine Advanced Therapy (RMAT) designation from the FDA and PRIME designation from the European Medicines Agency.
Krystal expects to begin a Phase III trial before the end of 2019.
In addition, in late May, the FDA granted an RMAT designation to Fibrocell Science’s FCX-007, which is a gene therapy candidate for the treatment of recessive dystrophic epidermolysis bullosa. The company said it expects to complete data collection for the primary endpoint of a Phase III trial in the fourth quarter of 2020 and then file a biologics license application in 2021.
Epidermolysis Bullosa: Developing Drugs for Treatment of Cutaneous Manifestations: Guidance for Industry
yes! not much stock around, despite funding hiatus.
despite enough AIM experience to suggest otherwise, i'm waiting for this funding news in a relaxed state of mind. I really should be terrified.
my latest theory/hope/aspiration is for a demerger/sale/separate listing of the cash-generative monitoring business, leaving the Gib contract/ebitda to fund the membrane business. This theory has just two tiny flaws: no Gib contract signing yet, and no evidence that our membrane tech has commercial momentum....
still, allow me to dream until we get the brutal reality of an RNS some day soon.
i agree....get us away from 'penny share' perception.
AGM is on 19th July. Details in the Reports section of Investor page on website.
1:50 consolidation proposed - as long as we're above 3p at the time.
Yep. suspect you’re right...should allow us to drift back to 70p plus, if it is.
my guess is that it's Aquarius Partners. They invest for high net worth via tax wrappers and every few years they have to sell down to realise cash to return to investors from their various funds. baillie gifford are just too long-term to be a seller without a very very good reason. we don't know how ground-breaking C4X will be in drug discovery - if at all - so I think it too soon for them to have taken a view to sell.