Member Info for cadburyhill

The AGM has now been and gone, the new shares are issued and the cash is available to the company. This is now a simpler story: do you believe that these guys will be announcing a series of global licence deals over the next several quarters, leading to b/e, or not?
This stock was priced for almost certain failure. The sensitivity of the equity to revenue related news flow is incredibly high (we know the cost line is stable and about as low as it can go).
COFRA, who now control the board and own a significant slug of this business know more about global garment production and manufacturing than almost anybody else. I actually think the risks to holders in this stock, post raise, is surprisingly low - and that is what the market is beginning to price in.

normally on AIM over-thinking is a good thing - it stops you from allowing the adrenalin / greed to overcome the more logical part of the investor brain. The result is that we often buy high. Part of the reason for this typical mistake is the future uncertainty of the core investment story...the wonder-drug in early trials, the encouraging seismic data, etc..
To repeat my post from y'day, this business really is different from the speculative names on AIM because the revenue quality - and the near-term future earnings quality - is so high. They're demonstrably Covid-proof, recurring, sourced via commercial deals with global leaders like Croda, Nouryon, etc...AND they make the planet a better place.

I think the risk potential investors are making here is trying to time exposure: ....Do I wait for some fund-raising event? Do I trying to anticipate news flow on more US grants/loans? Do I hope/pray that there are no more commercial agreements /good news that's announced? What happens if a bio-packaging deal lands? etc. etc.
Look at the chart. This is a multi-year hold - I'd suggest five years, minimum. In my view, taking a position of some kind - perhaps it's not full-scale - is the right thing to do in this stock here and now. Let's worry about the details down the track. This business is of too higher quality and the management team is too open, committed and aligned with our interests to NOT have some kind of position in it today.

AIM often gives you chances to buy moon-shot revenue opportunities at deeply distressed valuations, but it very, very rarely gives private investors the chance to buy revenues of this quality and duration at this market cap. New Wave and other sales orders are recurring and will compound for many years. Same at Nouryon and Croda which are building more slowly.
And we haven’t even started to talk bio-packaging and other applications...

yes, agree on the ii backers....that seems important. The Entrepreneurs Fund really, really know what they're doing in global garment manufacturing, etc. IP Group are under real pressure so to see them back this name is a real indication to me that their confidence in it is very high. It's worth putting a dummy order in just to see how many shares you get for your money down here vs when you and I were buying at £2!! all best

You've missed the boat on the Primarybid offer - 98% of us did. What you've now got to do is buy circa 1.5x the number of shares you were holding in your bottom draw to avoid a big dilution. It's fine to buy here. It will make no odds in the longer term. This stock ain't going to be at these levels for very long. This is a deeply dysfunctional price. Yes, there's a small probability it goes to zero but the actual results RNS is actually deeply impressive and cash burn is now v. low. IF you believe this company will be trading in two years time, then to get upset about paying 0.3p more than someone else is missing the point. Good luck, DD77!

Good, consistent buying in this cash rich, IP rich vaccine play today, but note the bid. It begrudgingly shifted up from 10.25 to 10.50, despite all the buying above 11 and the spread has moved out as a consequence. I don’t know why the market maker is so determined to anchor this stock here but you sense that a wee bit more buying pressure will force him/her to raise the bid, close the spread and then this stock will finally move a lot higher....it should be in the 20’s before we even begin to discuss fair value. £100mn of sales, £35mn of cash, a one-shot peanut vaccine, etc etc.

A good write-up on SNG in a comprehensive report...

https://arixbioscience.com/insights/how-close-are-we-to-a-covid-19-cure-a-biotech-vc-perspective

“SNG-001 (Synairgen). Synairgen’s inhaled formulation of interferon-beta-1a (IFN-1a), which unlike the other drugs above, would increase the immune system’s responsiveness. The evidence so far in asthma patients – where it has been tested for preventing asthma exacerbations from the common cold – is mixed, but in a more severe population, this mechanism could be powerful.“

looking at the trading on LSE, it looks like an institutional dealer was clumsy or made a mistake....his/her algos were selling constantly into the close and then someone sells over £1mn of stock in an uncrossed trade into the auction?...That means it's going to price horribly - and it did. Makes you wonder if it's Allianz and he/she is not caring about what price he/she gets because they're on their way out of the position completely....Likely to be a buying opportunity if anything. let's see tomorrow morn.

this Nature article caught my attention. AllergyTherapeutics has a state of the art vaccine manufacturing facilities at their secure production unit in Sussex - co-located with GSK. It also has plenty of cash, plenty of topline growth and plenty of vaccine/adjuvant expertise.
It's also got a share price which is remarkably cheap and which seems to be anchored to 10p. The market maker is determined to keep the bid at 10.25 come what may....

"If a coronavirus vaccine arrives, can the world make enough?
Researchers warn production constraints and hoarding could limit SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supplies."

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01063-8

quick reply here. tricky to delist unless you can control more than 75% of the equity because you need shareholder approvals via an GM. It's also expensive....(although so is being listed...). share-ownership is fragmented here, if you look at the register....So, there are ways to go private and it may well be the right thing to do ultimately (private equity would love to put debt against the regular cashflows this business will generate once profitable). But it's not as simple, quick or cheap as you might think....

Lots of examples of UK listed Aim companies receiving small business loans to support their US operations today. I mention Tissue Regenix ($629,000) and Velocys ($709,000) as just two examples. Will be encouraging to hear that the New Hampshire operations at ITX are supported by similar loans. We know that the demand for product should be pretty good - my dishwasher is busier than ever, for e.g.

The directors and managers of this company have lots of skin in the game here. The CEO himself owns over 10%. There has been a relaxation of rules around pre-emption rights for shareholders because of the impact of the virus on funding for many companies. This would allow management to raise up to 20% of the existing share capital without having to formally go to an EGM to ask for shareholder approval.
My guess is that this will take place at ITX. The main reasons why I've liked this company are the commitment of the new board and management team, as demonstrated by their equity holdings; and the openness/enthusiasm/sector knowledge of the CEO (watch his video clips).
Then of course, there's the bio-ingredient theme. I think there's little doubt that post virus we are going to see an acceleration of bio ingredient replacement in the products we consume as part of a general focus on 'wellness' and health/sustainability. This stock plays perfectly to this theme. So, start to build a position soon because if the board fund short term working capital to get through this virus slump via a 20% raise then this stock is going to trade a lot higher, in my view.

WHY HASN’T THIS VACCINE MAKER RE-RATED?

I’m so lonely on this BB that I’ve resorted to copying and pasting my earlier posts...
‘There’s a lot of vaccine and adjuvant technology and know-how in this company- not to mention production capability at a site co-located with GSK....we’ve just got to be patient and wait for the market to start to value the technology, the circa £30mn cash and the circa £100mn annual revenue line - which continues to grow rapidly.’

Muggins makes a fair point. The link below outlines some of the challenges of detecting virus in waste water (note, we ‘only’ need to detect the RNA of a virus, we don’t need it to still be ‘alive’). The retrofit point is also really important, though.
If you have the well-established installed base with the flexibility to incorporate remote viral RNA detection in the future, then you have a business potentially worth billions. Look at our market cap. It’s clearly discounting nada in this area or others. Long term holders should focus on the demand for MWG monitoring product and consumables and let the likes of thermo fisher work on next gen solutions like viral rna detection. They will crack it. There’s too much money at stake for a solution not to be found. All we can hope for from GB and the team is an acute awareness of the needs for system design flexibility to incorporate detection breakthroughs when ( not if) they occur.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0043135418301039

Nice article in Sunday Times entailed “Scientists fight dirty to track virus through sewage”.
No mention of MWG but plays to an argument GB has been making for a while...
It can’t do the MWG investment case any harm ...

I think this is the only globally recognised small cap developer and manufacturer of vaccines and adjuvants not to have its share price double in the last few weeks.... it has £30mn-odd of cash, it generates a growing top line of circa £100mn p.a (8% growth last reported)...
Not sure why the company has not communicated its capabilities and their relevance, although this management team has always been hyper-focused and doesn’t seek attention....let’s hope they do contribute to the pandemic effort and let’s hope this woefully misspriced stock rises as a consequence....

FY results due any day and along with it some comment about current operating environment, outlook, etc...

There’s a lot of vaccine and adjuvant technology and know-how in this company- not to mention production capability at a site co-located with GSK....we’ve just got to be patient and wait for the market to start to value the technology, the circa £30mn cash and the circa £100mn annual revenue line - which continues to grow rapidly.

Tiny, irrelevant volume taking it lower....£7k of sells.
On the positive side, I don’t know about you guys but having a family holed-up at home has meant our dishwasher is working flat-out. I think the underlying demand picture from New Wave and others is strong. Whilst on the supply side, ITX have complete control over its production, and its feedstock/ raw material is always available... If any company can trade through this crisis, ITX can - if it can just find a couple of hundred grand to fund shorter term working cap.

The CEO inferred $2million of annual sales from the January New Wave RNS alone in one of his last Proactive interviews....And we all know the strength of structural demand across odour control, hair product, dishwash and into bio-plastic packaging.
It all adds up to a stock that has the potential to react incredibly quickly to any funding news. And let’s not forget that management owns a proper chunk of the equity. They have skin in the game. Buy.

The only ‘error’ is your inability to note that the reference to ‘funding through to 2021’ on Twitter is dated back to the summer last year and refers to the credit facility - currently suspended and therefore irrelevant. Nice try though.