Member Info for cadburyhill

More very large trades going through today....
Streuth, someone has had a serious amount of wood to chop in Puretech in recent months.
Well, they can’t go on for ever without issuing a TR-1...I still reckon it’s Invesco or an ex-Invesco fund now run by someone else due to a loss of mandate. Puretech was owned in multiple Invesco portfolios at one point. Hence their 30%+ combined holding.
Encouragingly, a couple of the Pms declared their loyalty to Puretech in recent Invesco investor PR.....The tide will turn in our favour soon-enough. Am more than happy to wait.

It’s a perfect setup: an overbought move towards 2.00p which flushed out short term profit takers from the placing (well done, them), then a move lower in line with a broad market de-risk which accelerated any profit taking and also cleared out those of a nervous disposition/ low conviction. And now the chart re-build.
The result is a share register that is, as my Yorkshire grandfather used to say ‘tighter than a gnat’s chuff’.

I think people are forgetting that some of the holders of our stock are US high yield credit and restructuring specialists, courtesy of the acquisition. These guys aren’t wired for binary equity risk from a trial readout, or even that interested in the science. It wouldn’t surprise me if the likes of Highbridge have been selling prior to and post the trial readout. Ultimately, Amryt was always going to need a significant rejig of the register and to find more long term fundamental life science investors. That process is playing out in my view.
I’d suggest we just sit back and watch. The real inflection point is the conference paper and presentation, when those fundamental life science guys get a proper look at the data. I think we’ll be through 300 by Xmas.

I’m still here! I have a significant (in my opinion) amount of capital exposed to this name....I thought the presentation was excellent.

I’d suggest that a p/e is a very conservative way to build an estimate of future value in a med-tech. Med-techs typically trade on 4 or 5x sales - more for smaller, fast growing businesses. In part this is because the sector has always seen so much M&A. The big guys aggressively buy any business with a strong pulse.
If TRX is generating £50mn of sales, I’d expect the market cap to easily be above £250mn and very likely a lot higher due to anticipated bid spec....

I actually think it’s an ‘air pocket’ issue. There’s been a decent sized buyer around for a while - look at the delayed trades from yesterday- and he/she has stopped. We don’t know why they were in quite such a hurry to accumulate or why they stopped today (neg nasdaq futures? ) but let’s see what tomorrow brings. So, in summary: over bought - yes; bubble, I doubt.

yes, you're right...I went back and looked at the holding RNS. I guess the clue is in the name 'SkyGem Acquisitions Ltd'... !

Lots of cash and top-line growth, no debt, good patent estate and certified laboratory space - and some really exciting pipeline opportunities (e.g. single injection peanut allergy treatment)...The most obvious conclusion is that someone is stake-building in this utterly overlooked name.
That sounds like a ramp, but there hasn't been a ramper in this stock since around 2015...It has been a long, slow, gruelling path to what we all hope is some kind of fair value realisation. GLA.

End of month stuff. Institution or market maker just clearing the decks of stuff they don’t want or have too much of...

From the WSJ today. This is the backdrop to the growing Corona-proof demand for ITX product in North America....

"Grocers are having trouble staying stocked with goods from flour to soups as climbing coronavirus case numbers and continued lockdowns pressure production and bolster customer demand?. General Mills, Campbell Soup, Conagra Brands and others say they are pumping out food as fast as they can, but can’t replenish inventories. As of July 5, 10% of packaged foods, beverages and household goods were out of stock, up from 5% to 7% before the pandemic, according to market-research firm IRI."

Nice write-up in the Times today. Can’t hurt the cause....

You’re not in possession of the facts. The trial was poorly conducted by a contract research organisation (CRO). If you go back through last years results youll see that they launched legal action and received compensation in the millions. Most if not all biotechs and pharma use CROs. AGY were unlucky but were able to prove incompetence.
They’re clearly very confident in Birch. Good luck to them.

Starting to suspect we have a US buyer quietly picking away at any stock up for grabs - and there’s not much to be had....
There’s so little liquidity in this vehicle that you have to take a view before not after the potential news flow.
It’s not a one way bet but I sleep easier with a position in ACT rather than being out of it. That tells me something. GLA.

Thanks. I love anecdotes from the great and good.
One piece of advice I received but have never had the balls to execute on is this “in a bull market, rather than double-down, wait till you get back to breakeven and double-up”.
This piece of advice is so cold and rational yet causes such a lot of cognitive dissonance in an investor like me that you know it makes a lot of sense..
For long term holders of TRX, we had no real choice but chase this lower to avoid brutal dilution. But the advice maybe relevant to some more recent investors.....

Nige, thanks for that perceptive, high quality post.

It’s clear that there is very little stock to be had. The market maker is going to have to really work hard to find stock and/or the buyers will just have to pay up.

Happy to sit and hold. After a couple of years you get used to it....

This is the team at Lombard who are relevant to us (see paste below). They’re a very experienced, very savvy group who have specialised in Uk small and micro caps for 20 yrs. interestingly, they did avoid nano-caps like us in recent years (Woodford, Brexit, etc). So I see their willingness to keep on building a position in TRX as a major due diligence positive.

“November 2, 2016
Lombard Odier Investment Managers announces that the Volantis investment management team is to join the firm from AlphaGen Capital. The team manages more than $1 billion in assets in UK equity long / short and long only strategies.

The eight person team will join Lombard Odier IM’s existing 1798 hedge fund strategies platform. They will be based in London, manage a niche strategy focused on UK small-caps and will benefit from full access to the firm’s asset management platform, which includes investment strategists, operations, distribution, risk management, compliance and legal capabilities.

The teams’ transfer to Lombard Odier IM will be implemented under a facilitation agreement and is subject to conditions including fund board approvals, applicable regulatory consents and requisite investor votes. Completion is expected in the first quarter of 2017, at which point Lombard Odier IM will become the manager of the alternative funds and sub-manager of the long-only fund currently managed by the Volantis investment management team.“

yesterday we saw the best volume traded in the stock since the April 'funded through to profitability' RNS.
End of the quarter stuff...Hope springs eternal that the seller is cleared. I was certainly surprised to see us drift back down towards 30p - a move which indicates to me the seller has still been out there.
Like a broken clock, one day I'll be right, the seller will stop, and the stock can re-rate towards fair value... GLA

A market cap of £3.2mn just makes NO sense. it's a joke and it's one that I find amusing every time I look at it.
I regularly review the 20 or so AIM names I have in my portfolio and it's a joy to compare this market cap with its sales growth and cost control against almost anything else out there.
IF we take the May revenue line and annualise it, we're on $3.6mn for THIS year. That's £2.9mn sales, plus the cash from the raise?!!??
These guys run their business on a shoe-string and all the production infrastructure is paid for and in place up to $15mn of sales. Currently, the market seems to value ITX at a fraction over 1 x current year approx sales. I'd expect any analyst to put it on 4/5x NEXT year's sales, minimum. Do the math. This is one cheap, structural growth, Covid-proof, stock.

it's very frustrating. one day, when I'm a grown-up, I'll understand what's going on in this name.
To repeat a theory I have made before here, my suspicion is that Invesco is the ongoing seller and they are crossing stock in sizeable chunks off-exchange to other institutional investor buyers. So, what we see is the bid/ask shifting around massively and we have no clue why because the moves don't correlate with the reported trades we are seeing. Until Invesco decide to retain what they've got for keeps or they've sold out completely, the share price will gap up and down in this way. Where are the TR-1s? I hear you ask? I think there is a lot of latitude given by regulators to institutions who are on-going sellers of an illiquid name. I hasten to add that I'm no dark-pool trading expert, nor an expert in TR-1 notifications so the above could be tosh.
At least we're moving higher and not lower and should be thankful for that at least.... And at least we have positions in this excellent prospect.

New Dawn, let it go. You told everyone that this company was going private on the 1st June : “all the signs are there”..
You got that call wrong. Just move on.