Member Info for cadburyhill

Good point. It’s also why they can’t provide detailed sales breakdowns by product / customer/ division. I know some were pushing the CEO to disclose this kind of info when he last presented to us in October.
To give detailed info on, say, odour control related sales by ITX, would allow Croda competitors to gauge croda product growth, etc etc.
We’ve just got to sit back, trust to the management team and judge them by their sales updates when we see them. The patience required IS demanding. As someone once said: investing is simple but it’s not easy.

Yes! All good.
Maiden divi due to be announced in the first part of next year and the proceeds from these disposals will feed into the decision on dividend size and the appropriate gearing of the company. My point being that there will be a new cohort of dividend-mandated institutional investors willing/able to invest at that point.

Travel....and arrive, Tony.
Stocks can be efficient some of the time and do discount good news ahead of its arrival.
It was likely that there would be some good operational news to accompany the share consolidation so some did buy in anticipation.
Note alsothat some investors have had negative experiences around consolidation events in other aim stocks. There’s always a bit of confusion and churn - as you’ll see over the next couple of days. But the bottom line is that this company is in the right space with the right technology, management and investors to go a long way.

Large trades - yes, good to see! Makes sense to me...: the transaction earlier in the month is likely to have triggered some due diligence on Arix and its portfolio. Detailed due diligence in life sciences doesn’t happen overnight and could easily take a few weeks, bringing us to around now..
Im hoping that investors have completed their DD and think the price vs NAV is a significant miss-pricing opportunity. Let’s hope some of them are bidding Link for clips of its stake.

Agreed. Feels like management are getting all their ducks in a row before contract news flow or something similar...as demonstrated by the share consolidation move we’ve got ahead of us next week.
I think it’s also encouraging that the Chinese / Asian economic performance has been robust. We want the big producers to be confident of end consumer demand for white goods, etc.. Also, consumers and legislators not in recession have the funds and inclination to think about the environment....All v encouraging.

Good luck to you. It’s not an easy decision on when and how to rebalance a portfolio that is overly exposed to a laggard - as I know from personal experience.
If I can give unsolicited advice, it’s this: the chances that you sell some of your DNL just before it re-rates is high - because that’s just how markets work; the chance that you buy into short term overbought U.K. value is even higher.
In my experience, when faced with a market timing dilemma, the best thing to do is nothing.
If you do buy U.K. value ( and, yes, it is very very cheap and I own some), please make sure you have the ammo to buy more if it moves down and don’t sell it for at least a quarter. This should reduce the whip-saw risk.

OAKLAND, Calif., Nov. 2, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- The Clorox Company (NYSE:CLX) reported sales growth of 27% and an increase in diluted net earnings per share (diluted EPS) of 103% for its first quarter of fiscal year 2021, which ended Sept. 30, 2020.

Great summary, Wololol. Completely agree.
Compounding revenue growth is the key driver here and by virtue of the mysteries of compounding (Einstein described compound interest as ‘the most powerful force in the universe’), I’m confident that analysts and investors will be consistently surprised by the numbers that John and the team will generate over the next few years.
Someone will do the maths, but stable low costs, stable 35%-40% margin, and a compounding top line mean that profits and earnings are highly geared. Exciting times! (and all this without new product launches).

Agreed on where we should be in terms of price. Am more relaxed re the seller.
There always has to be changes of ownership as a stock re-rates. The seller is providing liquidity to a next generation of holders - most likely established institutions. Diurnal is about to ‘grow up’ and become a legitimate investment opportunity for a huge pool of capital.

A laughable bad post. VeganEater is ‘out’ so we won’t be hearing from him/her again, thank goodness.

Excellent progress from a well managed and extremely well positioned technology group. Full Airbus accreditation due in the next few weeks.
Institutional investors will continue to seek to build positions in AGM and the share price chart will keep on moving higher. Yes, they’re going to raise money at some point but that’s what successful growth companies are meant to do to keep on growing. Institutions will see any fund raise as their chance to join the register. It will fly out of the door.

Am no expert but my read is that the bid (crudely, what the market maker will pay you if you try and sell him/her stock) keeps on being anchored lower than we think makes sense.
My rationalisation is that the market maker has an ongoing institutional seller on their hands - Invesco, lansdowne, both? Ergo, the last thing they want to do is to encourage you or me to sell him more so he offers us a poor price for our stock.
What would make his/her life easier is an institutional buyer or fresh source of buyers. Hence we have the move to allow Nasdaq trading.....
It’s a stock that doesn’t fit for many PMs. Uk listed but US assets, illiquid, complex to model, etc..

I have been here along time, guitarman, but this story only really started when John Shaw got hold of the keys and turned this venture around. As DD77 states, things were tough post Woodford and then there was the bad luck of a funding attempt at the start of Covid. John had to consider all options back then but there was never a threat of any kind, only a passion to keep the business growing. Anyway, it’s well funded now, with tight cost control and a revenue line growing like a weed.

One of the reasons why I’m here is Shaw’s openness/integrity. One of the other reasons is the skin in the game he and several of the board have in ITX. His interests are very aligned with ours.

An opportunity to buy recurring household and personal care revenues that will build over many many years via world class commercial partners like Croda, New Wave, Nouryon, etc. for a market cap of less than £10mn is truly exceptional. And it’s Covid proof!
Good luck in ITX, but you won’t need it.

Very positive. Most innovation companies are continually exploited by large commercial companies who engage their technical expertise and sample product for free. When you start out you want to impress everybody and you hope each new information request and bespoke project will lead to an eventual sale.
AGM are now so confident about the technology they have and, presumably, so overwhelmed by commercial enquires that they can cover the costs of their R&D guys by charging for time and resources in this way....

this is now out of our league. it has become an institutional stock - retail punters buying and selling won't move this now.

there's currently a lot of tension between the trading desks of institutions who want to buy after this de-risking, and the market maker who has the uneviable job of trying to find stock to fulfil multiple orders.

The dealers at the asset managers will be getting pressure from the fund managers to buy to get their positions built but the fund manager won't want to pay up; the dealer will be worrying that the market maker is filling someone else's order and not theirs, and so it goes on....

Ultimately, someone will crack (typically the fund manager) and someone will say 'just get me filled at something below a £1. or £1.20' or whatever, and the stock will jump as everyone will have to get aboard or risk paying even more - and the new post FDA price will be discovered.

We just need to sit back and relax....

Agreed. The 2019 report just reminded me of how much restructuring and tidying up the CEO had to do last year and what a great job the current team have done to set up the current growth trajectory.
This management team, with lots of skin in the game, really know their own business and their target markets incredibly well. It’s all v exciting - in a non-histrionic, compounding top-line kind of way.
Institutional investors are going to buy this all the way up. We know that some of them have started building positions in the cap raise but it’s surely obvious that Q4 2020 and 2021 are going to utterly transformational in market cap terms.

Agreed, Chester. It's very encouraging on a couple of fronts...
a. it's good to know that the big guys are happy to bid for something that is not ebitda +ve because that helps to put a bid under us now that we're solvent/a going concern. In most sectors, no-one bothers with pre-profit M&A and it's a reminder of just how M&A obsessed the medtech space always has been. M&A is the ultimate end-game for TRX, as we all know.
And, b. it's encouraging to see 2.5x sales as the multiple because, as your excellent contributions have shown, TRX is going to be showing substantial profits soon off the expanded production base and the take-out multiple - a key way institutional investors will value TRX - will axiomatically have to be a lot higher than this.
In my mind, I've always thought 4/5x sales on a profitable, fast growing business is a very conservative assumption. If two of the big guys were fighting over an asset, they'd go a lot higher.
A 4/5x sales multiple on your sales numbers for next year starts to build the implied market cap of this business into something that is going to move the dial for most of us in share price appreciation terms. And we haven't even factored in potential mesh sales with our mystery global top name.

Note S&N buying 'Extremities' today for $240mn...This is a $90mn a year revenue business, not yet at break-even. So, this is a pre-profit acquisition at 2.5x sales. Useful benchmark for TRX....Extremities are also based in Texas by coincidence...

Worth getting a 3 or 5 year volume chart up in this stock to see quite how much stock has been shifted in the last quarter or so.
I find the registration for Nasdaq listing to be extremely encouraging. To my mind, this indicates that management can see an end in sight for the sell volume that has capped this stock for too long.
It would make no sense to go for dual listing in the knowledge that a seller of your stock was going to crush any buying momentum. Management know that legacy Invesco fund selling ( if it is them), is drawing to a close. They want fresh US money to aid the price discovery process and I think that’s exactly what they’re going to get. I think the market would be comfortable carrying this stock at circa £4.20/30 by early next year, assuming no incremental news flow.

Excellent. Thanks for the detailed reply, GB..
Re: BT, strikes me that you’re most likely to get initial buy in from corporateS with expensive teams to keep intact and functional. For instance, trading or m&a teams at investment banks or surgical teams in US hospitals. In the public sector, it would be armed response teams - military/police, close protection teams, etc...Follow the money: Get one investment bank to be part of your beta test and they’ll ALL want to pay up!

Excellent posts this morning. Given the current market cap, it’s still an extraordinarily attractive risk reward for any investor who is appropriately scaled. No one can blame Helium and no one should beat themselves up for getting overly enthusiastic and buying on a spike. We’ve all done it and will continue to do it on occasions despite our best intentions. It will only take one RNS from the likes of Dell to get most/all investors back in the blue.
I do have one concern: that BT as a concept product that came about because of technical barriers to allowing the installation of real time Covid testing in new and legacy monitoring equipment. My fear is that GB and the team had the aptamers and affimers but that decay or degradation issues mean that very regular replacement is required to monitor effectively- which undermines the whole Covid remote monitoring capability.
If you are replacing chips every day, as you would do with BT, this issue goes away. In short: I’d be very reassured to hear of more progress in monitoring. Monitoring is why I’m here.