Member Info for cadburyhill

Courtesy of a poster on the Xeros bb.

https://www.moneymanagement.com.au/news/funds-management/fidelity-launches-fund-focused-%E2%80%98unexplored%E2%80%99-waste-and-water-sector

Good microbiome clinical data released by a US comp of ours, Finch.
As the article explains, the whole microbiome space was de rated after a c.diff clinical failure back in 2015/6.
The microbiome space is overdue a re-rating now. That would mean lots of deals, m&a, etc.. This is a good place to be...Build a position in 4D, be patient and throw in a bit of good luck...
https://e.endpointsnews.com/t/t-l-ptrlijk-nlkdldtdu-x/

The good development news keeps on rolling in but I actually think the results day will be an important catalyst, too.
Yes, it will be backward looking stuff in the main, but it will give us some actual base numbers for the newly re-launched business and will finally put the troubles of 2019 firmly in the archive. For e.g. what is the 'base' revenue number for the monitoring business? We're soon going to know and we can then apply a multiple of sales on that base figure and add our own thoughts on growth rates to workout where we might be heading in the future.
Cost control in recent years has actually been pretty good but perhaps the one benefit of the cash crunch of 2019 (apart from finding GB and the team) was that costs were cut back even further - for e.g. office space and non-core IP. The cost line will be worth keeping an eye on.
And of course Membrane is what it is. None of us give it a second thought nowadays or price it into the share price but I do suspect that one day soon it's going to deliver...Anyway, it remains a out of the money call for me that I'm happy to hold.

I think you are wrong!
I suspect time will show this to be perhaps the most significant RNS In a decade for RENE.

It takes strategic courage to do what they’ve done and leave CTX for partners to develop. With all resources now refocused, I think we should anticipate a string of licence, collaboration and partnering deals in their priority areas over the next year or so.
This also changes the capital intensity and funding needs of the company. No more massive bets on mid stage US CTX multi-centered trials with still 3-5 years till market approval.
Institutional investors will love the shift in risk reward. Indeed, potential institutional investors may have demanded it....

Fewer shares + no cash + risk of bankruptcy = £10mn mkt cap
A lot more shares but £14mn of cash + opportunity to grow secured = £30mn mkt cap - and rising fast.

Come on ‘Warren’’ surely you have to live by your own words?
You once famously said that the stock market was a mechanism for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient. And now you’re capitulating in this name because of a lack of news?
Good luck. Hope you don’t go on to regret the decision.....

I agree with this hypothesis. It’s worth reading the Edinburgh Investment Trust RNS this morning. Post the change in manager from Invesco, 95% of the portfolio has been churned. Given that we know Invesco owned 30%+ of PureTech at IPO and that Invesco has lost a number of mandates, including the Edinburgh Investment Trust mandate, over the last year or so, it seems highly likely that they have been the seller.
And note that they are under no formal obligation to disclose going through various thresholds if actively still trading an illiquid stock (a grey area Invesco exploited when selling down a number of names they co-owned with Woodford- a move that took the rug from under Woodford even more aggressively than it would otherwise have been pulled, but I digress).
I’m of the opinion that PureTech will make new highs in the week after Invesco stop selling. It’s a fantastic business. Let’s hope they stopped selling with that trade today....

It’s a good, fair question. The answer I think, Covid-hype investing apart, is the opportunity to accelerate time to market, which has a dramatic effect on the discounted valuation of the SNG pipeline.

Covid provides an incredibly rapid regulatory progression and the funding avenue for necessary expanded final phase/confirmatory trials. If you look at a Ventura, etc. you’ll see how long and grinding and expensive this kind of trial process can be in lung / COPD.

In addition, COVID is a kind of rapid proof of action. We already have smaller pools of data that support inhaled interferon beta’s general method of action. But if it works in Covid, no one is going to bet against it not having roles in other therapeutic applications, including early stage and prophylactic use. To have additional validated data in only a few months (Now weeks), is tremendously exciting and unexpected.

This Link related sell down has taken the froth off this name. That’s no bad thing even if it has hurt some of us in the short term.

I think some of this move is reflexive. Ruffer appear to have been a seller for many months before this and the share price was artificially low as a result. IF we assume Ruffer is now either out or happy that it has scaled its position appropriately, then we are seeing an initial move back to 'fair value' - whatever that is.
It's a good risk-reward story. The company have focused impressively on one application tech and have executed in it and cost control is great. So, you may have to wait a while for meaningful revenue pick-up, but there's no fluff or hype here and it has cash.

FT article this morning names 4D as one of the names in the Acacia transaction ( the article only names 3, not all 19).
Clearly a positive for 4D. Acacia are intellectual property specialists so they must like the 4D assets at this valuation. In addition, they will also have taken a view on the 4D cash position and be prepared to fund it when cash levels get low again early next year (assuming no licence deal in the meantime, which is conservative).

A nice fat late reported trade on Friday evening...dare we hope the seller has finally been cleared and the hand-brake has finally come off this stock? It has had one its best weeks in a long time, even before the late sale...we’ll see early next week. Fully funded to breakeven, revenue generating, and with some great pipeline products ( e.g. testosterone), the risk reward profile here is outstanding in my opinion.

Plenty of cash, tight cost base and a business that fits the gartner growth curve perfectly - the hype and bubble have been and gone, now it’s just building a sustainable business without fuss.
Ruffed have been the seller. If/when they clear, we should see a move back to the 20’s and beyond.

Agreed.
Would love to get a Chartists view on the stock now....there appeared to be some kind of double top risk but it has motored straight through the previous high. Where does a chartist see the next levels of resistance if it can stay well above 530p?
This is the top pick of the green fuel cell/hydrogen theme stocks because of the flexibility and relevance of its tech to so many static and motive applications.

We're starting to see some proper buy tickets in this name - and very little small ticket buying alongside it...I suspect that the sheer complexity of the US deal has meant that this hasn't been a retail investor share for a while now...
Maybe they'll come back in as we get closer to trial read-out. Or maybe Amryt just won't really need retail investor support and the sophisticated institutional investors (equity and credit) will continue to drive this higher towards fair value. One thing is for sure, it really hasn't started to get going yet.

You’re referring to the share issue that had to be up scaled due to ‘significant excess demand’? Umm..
Ultimately we are all on the same page and want the stock to go up to reward our investment in the technology. And we deserve that reward. But can I just suggest that in my experience equity markets cause the maximum amount of discomfort to the highest number of investors at any one time. If there’s a consensus of you thinking this stock is going to 0.25 or lower, then it’s very likely to disappoint you.
By the way, if it does go there, I’ll buy a lot more stock and post a “well done, you were right” message on this board.

Well, we ‘know’ that the £25k at 0.44p was above the mid point of the bid / offer, which was 40-45 so I classify it as a ‘buy’. But every buyer has a seller, etc..
Nom is absolutely correct that we have no evidence of background institutional buying. It’s only an assertion and I think my last post was overly assertive..
I know that this placing discount was brutal and hurt many of us, but there’s little chance that a company will issue this many new shares without some positive news flow to establish and keep momentum. Whilst its brokers will now be working hard to find new buyers or those willing to keep on scaling up (yes, only another assertion, nothing more).
To repeat, we all know it’s going to happen in mid June and I could argue that the shares will go higher once the resolutions have gained sufficient shareholder votes and the threat of failure is removed from TRX. Why would shares fall when that dire threat is removed?
Finally, anyone who thinks that it’s easy to take delivery of tens if not hundreds of millions of shares and then chuck them out into an illiquid market after a few weeks clearly hasn’t tried it. There will be some churn I’m sure, but I suspect nowhere near the quantity that some on this board fear. And when we do see it, it’ll be a lot higher up to make it worth the effort and risk of participation in a fundraiser for a near-bust nanocap.

if you go on to the London stock exchange site, you can see the transactions that trigger these RNS. There was a £25k buy at 0.44 which triggered this alert at TRX after the close at 4.30. The RNS indicate an unusually high volume of trading at a particular point in the day, and the inability of the machines to 'match' a buy or sell in the efficient way they normally do.
My interpretation is that we will see more of this kind of after hours lumpy trading. Basically, there are institutions who still wish to accumulate after the placing and the market maker will soften-up retail investors by dropping the bid during the day to try and accumulate stock to fulfil his/her order to the institution.
It's my view we will never see 0.25p again. The market will have had weeks to discount the arrival of the new shares in mid-June. There will be no retrace. If you want to buy, step up below 0.5p in my view - or miss the boat. And don't sell on a weak day like today because that's what the market maker is trying to get you to do.

I'd genuinely forgotten that this stock can go UP.....best day in months if not years. There is a bear market rule that fits this stock perfectly: if you hold it, don't add down here, wait for it to get back to your break-even price and double up.
I've never been worried about being underwater in it. The long term attractions were always obvious to me, whilst the overhang and the reasons for it were obvious to all. We just needed to get that overhang cleared. The price action suggests we're getting nearer to that point. Good luck, all.

I think investors are now waiting to see the full year 2019 results.
2019 will probably look difficult on paper so who wants to buy more in case the stock sells off on the full year release and provides a better buying opportunity?
We know such a lot has happened since the end of Dec....
Let's get those results out and in the rear-view mirror so we can all concentrate on supporting the exciting business the Chair and CEO are trying to build.

He's a proper hitter. This is a great endorsement for Xeros. William Salomon has immense experience and a great track-record. He's not in this name for a few months and 20%....I expect that where he goes, others will follow. It will certainly help to make Xeros a more 'serious' investment to many in the City.
He made a lot of money setting up an asset management business, Finsbury. He runs a specialist fund called the Hansa Trust. He knows a LOT about emerging markets. I could bore you on the quality and virtue of their assets, for example, London listed Ocean Wilsons (container ports in Brazil). Ok, emerging market port assets are not the most comfortable place to be in a pandemic, I'll admit. But it's an example of the type of high quality duration asset he likes. And now he likes Xeros...