Member Info for cadburyhill

Ignore the UBS threshold declarations. It’s the investment bank trading book. They will be acting for a third party, eg Davidson Kempner, and selling onto others.

It’s difficult to find a better risk-reward stock in U.K. small cap than this, in my view. The share price will move very quickly on any new institutional flows. It just requires lots of patience!

I don’t think U.K. investors realise how much of a big deal it is to see super smart Artesian Partners on our register…..

just doing some *** packet benchmarking of creo vs intuitive surgical (intuitive up 10% on friday). ignoring the consumables biz at creo completely (£27mn of sales guidance for 2024 but not why we’re here), core sales will be circa £3.2mn, giving a p/sales ratio of 23x. intuitive is also on same p/sales ($8bn of 2024 sales based on q3 no’s, and a market cap of 185bn). intuitive gained 18 billion on friday. we are in the right area of the market, just got to prove we’re commercially relevant.

You can feel the canaccord dealer’s impatience to get the selling done and dusted. This feels like an excellent set up for entry into a high quality growth name.

It may need one more fund raise. If growth goes the way we hope, they’ll be stretched working cap wise. I bought today and would buy aggressively in a future placing. Raising funds to expand a growth business is a good thing. We in U.K. AIM have temporarily forgotten that.

We retail investors are invariably contrarian indicators. The poor retail take up is bullish in my book. They didn’t talk to us because they didn’t need to. Guidance is clear for H2 2024. If they hit guidance it goes up many x, if they don’t, it goes bust. Place your bets.

ONT should merge with Pacific Bio - who are roughly the same market cap but have actually underperformed us! ONT could reverse in and pick up a US listing at the same time….

Well done. Smart.

This is a super cyclical so the market will aggressively look forward to any hint of earnings recovery. The old rule is to buy a super cyclical on the last earnings CUT. If you wait for the earnings to move higher, you’ll miss the big moves. Takes a bit of guts but otherwise there’s no point trying to play in stocks like this.

Agreed. CEO is clearing out the stables and has ambitions of putting together a world class team.

Happier today, Ironknut? A superb RNS. I think management are world class.

The old market rule is to buy super-cyclicals like this one on the LAST earnings cut, and sell on the last earnings upgrade of each cycle. Do profit warnings come in threes? If so, there’s a case to buy on a poor H1 23 trading update.

Fair. We could do with more communication. If it’s Baillie Gifford doing the dumping, they historically never care about a graceful exit and the chart suggests that’s what has happened here. I’m interested in whether they’re disappointed in Creo biz development or whether they’ve got too many fast growing mouths to feed and have had to prune (given poor recent numbers and redemptions). Creo will wait until the seller is finished before updating us. There’s no point pushing on a string. I still like this name and will hold.

Illiquidity makes this stock a bumpy ride but it’s one of the best stories on AIM. It’s a very simple business, run by people who know what they’re doing and who have lots of skin in the game - note recent purchases by directors, for eg.
In essence, it takes in savings at one rate of interest and lends out to any firm that holds inventory (a classic example would be a caravan/mobile home supplier) at a higher rate. The longer the kit stays on the forecourt, the more money they make. I’ve no idea when the market will reward holders of the stock, perhaps after we breakeven and go into profit next year. But it’s a robust, self-funding business and expertly run. Am v happy to hold a good sized position here on a two year + view.

Smartinvestment, surely has it right.
Let the numbers do the talking. If the numbers are as good as we think they can be then questions around the non-execs cease to be relevant, in my view. A strongly growing business with an executive team who also own a significant percentage of equity answers so many questions. If there are board changes in that scenario then that tells you that the non execs were getting in the way of faster growth, not aiding it. The execs and other significant holders clearly want to grow the business aggressively and are not interested in carrying passengers.
This really is a stock for all seasons….structural growth across existing and new markets at, what, 40% p.a.? Demonstrated ability to pass through inflation pressures. Management owned/controlled so lots of skin in the game. Below institutional radars for the moment. ESG - a trend on the back foot but only temporarily.

My view: Mr Nichols was a pompous, arrogant mate of the old CEO at IP Group, and he had failed at an earlier IP Group business, too. I take it as a significant positive that he is going. We have an excellent chairman who now has more direct control of the business.

We are on something like 5.5x sales for 2022, here… (£3.5mn of revenues on a market cap of £19/20mn). This is a long, long way from the ‘bubble’ sales multiples currently being compressed by markets in the US.
The RNS clearly steers us towards additional revenue lines in the near term, too - all off a cost base which is low and well under control.
You don’t have to dream about ‘futures transformed’ to buy this stock. I view it as an early stage growth stock in the highly dependable and highly rated consumer staples sector. Buy.

A portfolio decision, surely? The XBI index in the US has been hit so hard of late that most/all biotech funds are currently raising cash where they can…

Overhang now removed from this ‘simple’ yet fast growing, bank.
I haven’t been able to add to my position all morning…frustrating but a good sign.

Kitchen-sink by new incoming CEO…might as well get all the bad news out now, rebase expectations a lot lower and then he’ll look like a hero over the next few years. This is a super-cyclical stock. You have to buy them on what you hope is the last earnings cut, and sell them going into the last earnings upgrade of the cyclical. That’s the theory anyhow! I’ve bought a bit here. Good luck!

Best guess is Invesco are still the seller because of redemption pressures on a number of their poorly performing funds. I’d also point out that over in the US, the biotech index, XBI, has been having a torrid time for a while (prob due to sensitivity of long duration equity to rate rises, plus Biden regulation/pricing fears). It’s a fantastic company with cash out to 2025+. Please don’t sell it!