The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
I think this lowest share price in years argument is worth examining in more detail. Could we go bust? Well, if Gib does not happen and a sale of the monitoring business were to fail, I guess so. But we're now generating revenues over £4mn, growing at 20% and we had an operational spend of £1.4mn last year. This is a pretty lean ship and there's a massive amount of op leverage to anything on the Gib and Membrane front, let alone accelerated growth in monitoring.
In terms of risk-reward, now is surely the time to buy. Of course, we are all in at higher levels and that's the frustration that you're reflecting and we are all feeling.
In terms of what management can control, I'm very interested in an update on monitoring demand growth for our revamped Microtox.
IF modern water was this monitoring business alone, I think investors could argue for 2 or 3x sales on it perhaps more. That gives me a lot of comfort given the market cap. As for membrane, it's a long, long cycle business. We can see how environmental issues are becoming more political, even in emerging markets and we now have decent demonstration data. IF sales do appear, they will indicate that we will be selling membrane kit for many years to come. Again, that means extraordinary leverage for the share price.
I agree with others that I thought results were actually quite good. Note that all the right-downs and pain have been taken in previous years.
thanks, Gun..useful...I note some decent tickets on the 24th...where have you seen any indication that it's Oceanwood as the seller? and not engaging with the company? I haven't seen any TR-1s etc. Is it stuff from another board?
if we can get this overhang cleared, we're going to move really nicely. but we feels range-bound at the moment....
It's worth noting that the RP data has, thus far, gone utterly unreported by any of the US biotech daily news sites, like FierceBiotech or Endpoints News. Let's hope that the US biotech cognoscenti are reacquainted with Reneuron after the conference presentation/update on data in a couple of days time....If US money starts to turn-up, gawd knows where we'll be. The market cap is still so small...The irony is that the larger the market cap, the more easily it is for fund managers to buy it and the virtuous circle is complete. Lots of them have mandates that prevent them from buying companies below a certain size and daily trading volume.
Agreed. These guys really haven’t put a foot wrong. The fact that their chart hasn’t reflected all / any of their progress just shows you how out of favour the UK listed innovation space is at the moment. If they’d listed in the US, they’d surely be trading a lot higher, equal to or in excess of NAV.
It’s the International Liver Congress in Austria over the next week, where everyone and anyone associated with fibrosis and NASH get together. Deals often get announced at these annual shindigs. It wouldn’t surprise me if our Australian friends announced a licence deal of some kind....some news feels almost overdue.
It's either a very large buyer or a very large seller or we're going to see a small raise. Under 'normal' circumstances, i would have expected the stock to be nearer 50p given the significance of the RNS.
I think we need a couple of things in place to really unlock things - a partner to take chronocort and AI into the US, taking some of the cost burden off us; and perhaps a small raise to give us plenty of funding to get AI and chronocort through to generating revenues in europe (and ROW).
I think it's a really good story and the endocrine space is hotting up. but it's going to be a slow burn and some private investors will get bored.
Yes, always the risk of a 'cheeky' bid. the risk is that any bid will grossly undervalue the company (if you were the potential buyer, you'd do the same I guess).
IP Group is a very significant holder so ultimately the ball is in their court. They would like a valuation uplift in the share price and limited dilution to support their NAV, so at least their interests are aligned with ours.
Final point. I think US buying could become important so I will be watching afternoon trading patterns.
this article below is worth a read. It demonstrates the extent of demand for stem cell solutions for retinal disease. Unfortunately, some poor souls have wasted money and their limited eye-sight on quack cures. But if RENE is going to produce an FDA-approved, legitimate alternative then this demand will be met across thousands of clinics across the US.
I completely agree with Surprised2's assessment of this name. I'm going to ride it all the way because, unlike most AIM stocks, It could make a material change to wealth. In the meantime, I think there's going to be an aggressive auction for the rights to licence RENE technology in the US before the full release of data in the summer for RP. Big pharma can't afford to wait for the data because a competitor will move first. I think we go a lot higher from here, with some aggressive profit-taking from the day traders along the way.
FDA sends letters to 20 companies in attempt to rein in stem cell industry ???
Washington Post
Nouryon (formerly AkzoNobel Specialty Chemicals) has expanded its offering to customers in the personal care market with a bio-based polymer, Amaze SP, helping formulators to meet the latest consumer trends in hair styling.
The new polymer is a result of Nouryon’s exclusive global supply agreement with Itaconix to market bio-based polymers to customers in the personal care market.
“Consumers are showing an increased interest in lighter textures that allow an effortless, yet flawless hairstyle. It is difficult for formulators to achieve this with traditional, synthetic styling polymers,” explained Jens Müller, Global Technical Marketing Manager Personal Care at Nouryon. “Amaze SP is plant based and provides a unique weightless hold while enabling a very natural look and feel on the hair. It offers humidity resistant style retention, volume and anti-frizz performance comparable to synthetic polymers.”
AB Ghosh, Managing Director Surface Chemistry at Nouryon, commented: “Innovation is the backbone of our product development and key to our success, and we use partnerships like the one with Itaconix to accelerate innovation. We will continue to develop more novel bio-based solutions for customers, helping them to meet consumer demands for more natural products.”
Nouryon launched Amaze SP at the in-cosmetics Global trade show in Paris, France. Recently the company also expanded its offering to customers in the personal care market with a new film-forming polymer for use in long-lasting, high SPF sunscreen products.
the optimist in me hopes this is just some clumsy tax-loss selling going into the end of March and that we can bounce back aggressively with a bit of news flow in time. The pessimist in me worries that management have met institutional investors post the full year results in early march and some are walking away. I suspect it's the former if only because the stock is so illiquid that no institutional investor could sell much stock no matter how hard they tried....That leads me to the conclusion that this is worth punting a couple of grand as a spec buy in someone's ISA.
I'm happy to accept that I'm a stale bull on this name...We're now at your NAV, 42trader....Never thought we'd get there.
as even today's release reminds us, they've had two successful trials in recent years, backed by thousands of named-patient treatments across europe. today's results showed the biomarker data was excellent. what's missing is the differentiation from placebo from a patient survey perspective. that might be because the placebo affect is strong and/or there's inconsistency in how and how often patients remember to fill in the forms, or other factors....let's see.
how can there not be a future for a business with £70mn of annual sales already, regardless of trial outcome? You need to cut your losses and walk away from this name or man-up and buy some more down here. But utterly alarmist statements like the ones you are making need to be challenged.
it's not 'ridiculous' but it's disappointing and it's what the chart has been discounting for a while. it's what happens when you give patients iPads and ask them to give you subjective feedback. the quality of that feedback is clearly problematic and is an issue for the regulators and the entire allergy space. by law, management would have been blinded to the actual data till a few days ago...
if you closed down the pipeline and ran this business for cash, it's worth 24p. if you add in peanut pipeline potential, etc. it's clearly worth a lot more. At this price, half of the market cap is cash. remember, 100's of thousands of named patients have used and benefited from the allergy range of short course treatments. this is not a typical biotech binary scenario. BUY.
This is worth a read....even though it’s not really what we want to hear.
A report commissioned by the European Climate Foundation suggests a fossil fuel-free energy system in Europe by 2050 should largely rely on smart electrification and energy efficiency. Green hydrogen deployment, the report finds, would require prohibitively expensive infrastructure investment.
https://pv-magazine.us13.list-manage.com/track/click?u=2790e780a1533f4bc05c8679a&id=f26064b1af&e=8aff0a8380
i could write a book about TR-1 notifications and the ways institutions frequently delay issuing them - often for the very pragmatic reason that they're still an on-going seller, or because they've not yet crossed a threshold level to trigger a need to issue. Timely release of TR-1's is not what one can expect in this highly illiquid names.
But, to your point, it's very encouraging to see directors buying stock - particularly when they're as clever as Dave Norwood.
I think you’re right on this name. The only word of caution is with respect to the seller/s. I’m pretty sure the main seller is Invesco, selling down in legacy innovation names from the Woodford era. Like all UK fund platforms, they have had redemption pressures. Maybe selling illiquid stuff like this also puts pressure on a competitor- Woodford- at the same time because they know he will be holding this stuff for the long term.
The good news is that some really interesting innovation names are at incredibly cheap valuations and offer extraordinary risk reward, as you have identified in 4D. The bad news is Invesco’s selling collapses the bid and can damage a chart for a very long time. Look at other names like Xeros, Reneuron, Tissue Regenix, E-Therapeutics, etc. all names where, I think, the market makers know Invesco is a seller for choice. Reneuron turned a corner recently when Invesco annnounced they’d fully sold down. We could do with a similar announcement here to start to rebuild the chart...Good luck !
Smith__Nephew_to_acquire_Osiris_Therapeutics_Inc.
S&N are paying over 6.5x last year’s sales for this TRX comp....
Sure, it’s bigger than TRX...Osiris did just over $100mn of sales in ‘18...
Its always useful to look at a transaction multiple and apply it to our latest revenue number to sanity check our current market valuation.....it’s also a reminder that the deals come when you have a revenue line that can move the dial for an acquirer....
Yes! My bad in posting twice. I got that ‘oops!’ error message and panicked...!
Summary of research note this morn by Stifel is below.
Our investment thesis on ReNeuron is that the stock is fundamentally mispriced and that the delivery of positive clinical data from either of its two main assets will prompt either 1) a long overdue re-rating in the market or 2) industry partners to step in and ascribe value where the market does not. The recent impressive Phase II results with hRPCs in retinitis pigmentosa (RP) has sparked a ~70% share price gain, but in the context of our 625p TP and >60p net cash/share, scenario 1 may be starting to play out but there is a long way to go yet. Meanwhile, we expect industry partners, that were interested in licensing the hRPC asset last year, will be evaluating the asset more intensely now in light of the data, while recent M&A activity in the retinal (gene therapy) space - Roche's $4.3bn acquisition of Spark Therapeutics and Biogen's $800m purchase of Nightstar Therapeutics - demonstrates the value that industry players are currently placing on novel (retinal) technologies. Yet ReNeuron's retinal cell approach has much broader potential applicability than mutation-specific gene therapy. Scenario 2 may play out before scenario 1 can take hold. Reiterate Buy.
thank gawd for that...Invesco has been THE seller of this name for at least a couple of years....it has meant that the bid has always dropped over the period because the market makers were always anticipating more stock coming their way from Henley and didn't want to get too long the stock. Truly a turning point....
Now we just need to hear about a licence deal in pigmentosa and the game is really on. if someone was willing to spend up to five million dollars on exclusivity BEFORE we had initial positive trial outcomes then someone else should be back with a chequebook soon.
thank gawd for that...Invesco has been THE seller of this name for at least a couple of years....it has meant that the bid has always dropped over the period because the market makers were always anticipating more stock coming their way from Henley and didn't want to get too long the stock. Truly a turning point....
Now we just need to hear about a licence deal in pigmentosa and the game is really on. if someone was willing to spend up to five million dollars on exclusivity BEFORE we had initial positive trial outcomes then someone else should be back with a chequebook soon.
worth watching this video clip on AGM's Genable anti-corrosion technology. sure, it's not ours but it shows the kind of impact graphene is starting to have as it commercialises. this isn't a zero-sum game. what's good for one graphene player is good for us, too. particularly if it's UK-based and can draw international investors to the sector and to us.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WG4xpaZIfiA#action=share
This cash rich company produced a great RNS a few days ago and the stock thoroughly deserves to go a lot higher. It’s definitely worth watching the corrosion test video clip.
If VRS had produced an RNS of this quality the stock would have put on tens of millions of value. The management team here aren’t as noisy as others, but I think they’ve generated some great test data and some very strong relationships with grown-up industrial partners.
We’re overdue some European Space Agency news, too, which would also validate technical progress....