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I think you’re right on this name. The only word of caution is with respect to the seller/s. I’m pretty sure the main seller is Invesco, selling down in legacy innovation names from the Woodford era. Like all UK fund platforms, they have had redemption pressures. Maybe selling illiquid stuff like this also puts pressure on a competitor- Woodford- at the same time because they know he will be holding this stuff for the long term.
The good news is that some really interesting innovation names are at incredibly cheap valuations and offer extraordinary risk reward, as you have identified in 4D. The bad news is Invesco’s selling collapses the bid and can damage a chart for a very long time. Look at other names like Xeros, Reneuron, Tissue Regenix, E-Therapeutics, etc. all names where, I think, the market makers know Invesco is a seller for choice. Reneuron turned a corner recently when Invesco annnounced they’d fully sold down. We could do with a similar announcement here to start to rebuild the chart...Good luck !

Smith__Nephew_to_acquire_Osiris_Therapeutics_Inc.
S&N are paying over 6.5x last year’s sales for this TRX comp....
Sure, it’s bigger than TRX...Osiris did just over $100mn of sales in ‘18...
Its always useful to look at a transaction multiple and apply it to our latest revenue number to sanity check our current market valuation.....it’s also a reminder that the deals come when you have a revenue line that can move the dial for an acquirer....

Yes! My bad in posting twice. I got that ‘oops!’ error message and panicked...!
Summary of research note this morn by Stifel is below.

Our investment thesis on ReNeuron is that the stock is fundamentally mispriced and that the delivery of positive clinical data from either of its two main assets will prompt either 1) a long overdue re-rating in the market or 2) industry partners to step in and ascribe value where the market does not. The recent impressive Phase II results with hRPCs in retinitis pigmentosa (RP) has sparked a ~70% share price gain, but in the context of our 625p TP and >60p net cash/share, scenario 1 may be starting to play out but there is a long way to go yet. Meanwhile, we expect industry partners, that were interested in licensing the hRPC asset last year, will be evaluating the asset more intensely now in light of the data, while recent M&A activity in the retinal (gene therapy) space - Roche's $4.3bn acquisition of Spark Therapeutics and Biogen's $800m purchase of Nightstar Therapeutics - demonstrates the value that industry players are currently placing on novel (retinal) technologies. Yet ReNeuron's retinal cell approach has much broader potential applicability than mutation-specific gene therapy. Scenario 2 may play out before scenario 1 can take hold. Reiterate Buy.

thank gawd for that...Invesco has been THE seller of this name for at least a couple of years....it has meant that the bid has always dropped over the period because the market makers were always anticipating more stock coming their way from Henley and didn't want to get too long the stock. Truly a turning point....
Now we just need to hear about a licence deal in pigmentosa and the game is really on. if someone was willing to spend up to five million dollars on exclusivity BEFORE we had initial positive trial outcomes then someone else should be back with a chequebook soon.

thank gawd for that...Invesco has been THE seller of this name for at least a couple of years....it has meant that the bid has always dropped over the period because the market makers were always anticipating more stock coming their way from Henley and didn't want to get too long the stock. Truly a turning point....
Now we just need to hear about a licence deal in pigmentosa and the game is really on. if someone was willing to spend up to five million dollars on exclusivity BEFORE we had initial positive trial outcomes then someone else should be back with a chequebook soon.

worth watching this video clip on AGM's Genable anti-corrosion technology. sure, it's not ours but it shows the kind of impact graphene is starting to have as it commercialises. this isn't a zero-sum game. what's good for one graphene player is good for us, too. particularly if it's UK-based and can draw international investors to the sector and to us.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WG4xpaZIfiA#action=share

This cash rich company produced a great RNS a few days ago and the stock thoroughly deserves to go a lot higher. It’s definitely worth watching the corrosion test video clip.
If VRS had produced an RNS of this quality the stock would have put on tens of millions of value. The management team here aren’t as noisy as others, but I think they’ve generated some great test data and some very strong relationships with grown-up industrial partners.
We’re overdue some European Space Agency news, too, which would also validate technical progress....

Can’t say he was a brilliant CEO at Silence, but he’s a canny trader. When at Silence he bought a position in Arrowhead Therapeutics and made many millions for his business by trading it a few months later. He’s a chess grandmaster and loves a strategic opportunity.
I agree that an episode of value / price discovery in the Reneuron stock price has now begun...

you could be right but who cares about the rampers? for genuine investors, it's just a case of waiting and topping up if they have any spare capacity whilst we stay below 3p.
i'm pretty sure the seller is a private wealth investor selling to crystallise a tax loss to off-set gains elsewhere in his portfolio. he's selling now because he wants to lock-in the loss ahead of year-end. if he waits a few more weeks, then he runs the risk of a brexit-rally of some kind. we had a large tax loss seller last year in March if you look at the chart... newsflow has been brilliant. you couldn't ask more of the new management. just have to be patient.

they're slightly ahead is my guess (no expert)....they generated positive data from a phase 1/2 trial in september/october in a sample of 15 patients. we only have a handful thus far...
Gene therapy is far trendier than our approach and nightstar are backed by syncona (wellcome trust) and other clever investors who are happy to talk it up.
Poor old Reneuron has no friends at all - apart from loyal Woodford - and everyone is trying to write him off (at their peril). Arguably, our approach is 'safer' from a regulatory perspective although the FDA is getting more relaxed on gene therapy. The main issue for gene therapy is pricing - it can be very high...GSK has had a product out for a couple of years now and the take-up has been very low because of cost. In theory, we could be cheaper and more mass market in pigmentosa - but I'd value a proper scientist's view on that assertion.
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Stem cell therapies have been out of fashion for a while now, as we know to our costs. i've gradually learned that science does follow fads and fashions. we are due our moment back in the sun, I suspect. perhaps a deal in pigmentosa will be the vehicle to do it.

I presume this explains some/all of the fuss today...

Another day, another gene therapy deal. The lure of the one-shot cure for rare eye diseases — a niche pocket within the broader arsenal of gene therapies — is en vogue, with Roche’s $4.3 billion buyout of Luxturna maker Spark Therapeutics $ONCE and J&J forking out up to $440 million to collect the rights to MeiraGTx’s slate of ophthalmological gene therapies this year. On Monday, Biogen joined the festivities with its agreement to acquire London’s Nightstar Therapeutics $NITE for roughly $800 million.

Biogen is willing to pay $25.50 in cash per Nightstar share — a premium of roughly 68% to Nightstar’s Friday close on the Nasdaq — to gain access to the UK company’s slate of rare retinal gene therapies designed for delivery via the use of a viral vector. The acquisition is expected to close by mid-year 2019, Biogen $BIIB said.

it's a decent question to ask. I think the answer is that the decision to buy requires some due diligence and some board-level time to sign-off on it. Nouryon is a big place, assessing hundreds of potential bolt-on deals a year. The capacity to prep a deal for board sign-off is limited, as is the costs and time to integrate the acquired business.

The one thing that isn't really a factor is the price to be paid. They're happy to pay hundreds of millions for an ITX in a few years time that is generating tens of millions of revenues and is fully operationally de-risked. But, at this current level, sales are too small for the board to bother spending time on...

one of the strongest arguments for investing in ITX - and others like it - is that the global household and personal care companies that ultimately buy their products, have been 'over-earning' for a large number of years. That means they've been underinvesting in product innovation and have been spending cash on dividends and buybacks instead. They were rewarded by the markets for doing so but no more.
These global players are now frantically scrabbling to buy-in sustainable innovation. See the comment below from german Nivea maker, Beiersdorf, made yesterday. ITX is a multi, multi-bagger - if you're patient.

“The consumer goods industry is undergoing a historical disruption. Our entire business model needs timely adaptation due to new market realities and fast-changing technology developments”, says Stefan De Loecker. “This requires first and foremost higher investments. We at Beiersdorf are motivated and prepared to kick-start this phase of transformation.”

You’re factually incorrect in the assertion that the recent investors get ‘free’ shares at 9.75p. They have a warrant over shares, which gives them the right but no obligation to buy another 9million at 9.75p (assuming the AGM passes the proposal). Please. Look up the definition of ‘warrant over ordinary shares’ in google.

No-one is discussing the monitoring business and the new product launch, in tandem with the new distribution arrangement in China, which guarantees a decent margin. Monitoring is already break even. It’s a really cool part of the business and carries the current modern water valuation on its own in my model.

Price action has been annoying but I’m still pretty relaxed in this name. I reckon its fair value here is 13p. It’s worth in the mid-20’s if there’s any sign of sustainable membrane contract wins. It’s probably worth another 10p on top of that if Gib comes thru...

Cash management has been excellent. We’ve got three decent shots on target via membrane, monitoring and gib. Nothing is certain, particularly on AIM, but have patience and give the management a bit more time to get it right in a very long cycle industry.
Good luck all.

yet another failure in an anti-fibrotic linked to NASH, etc. 'Good' news for us at the margin..... Patience....Patience...

France’s Inventiva (Euronext: $IVA) has suffered its first big setback following its public listing in 2017. The company’s lead experimental drug, lanifibranor, failed a mid-stage trial in patients with a form of systemic sclerosis (SSc) — a rare, chronic life-threatening disorder in which the immune system attacks its own organs and is characterized by a buildup of scar tissue — prompting the Daix-based drug developer to abandon the program for the indication.

The Phase IIb trial evaluated two doses of lanifibranor (800 mg, 1200 mg) against a placebo in 145 patients with diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis, which account for roughly 35% of the SSc population. Patients were given lanifibranor in either two doses of 400mg per day or two doses of 600mg per day over 48 weeks in addition to standard of care, which typically included immunosuppressive therapy.

Compared to the placebo, neither dose of the drug induced a statistically significant change in the modified Rodnan Skin Score — a scale measuring the evolution of skin fibrosis, which is correlated with internal scarring — missing the main goal of the study. None of the secondary endpoints, including changes in pulmonary function measured via forced vital capacity and overall progression of the disease, were met, Inventiva said on Monday.......

worth having a look at the Modern Water Twitter page, where they've posted a decent piece by local Gib TV on the project...It's the first chance I've had to actually look at the site/s under construction and to appreciate just how complicated the project is in terms of planning, etc. I didn't know they'd have to temporarily block off a tunnel during construction, for e.g.. Nor did I know that they have to transport regular amounts of dried poo etc. round to a landfill site in Spain....

I note a failure of a major phase 3 NASH trial at Gilead last night.... At the margin, this increases the interest and value of our fibrosis product, which is in the process of being licensed out by our Australian friends...NASH/fibrosis is such a massive, largely unmet area of need....

with that bid/ask spread of over 10% we will never really know what trade is what!
what does intrigue me is any sign of US interest in this name in afternoon trading over the next few months.
there are a lot of specialist medtech and bioscience funds over there and this is effectively a US-centric business nowadays - on a brexit-depressed UK multiple of sales. In addition, medtech companies are addicted to buying each other - it's always been a fertile hunting ground for M&A bankers trying to put together a deal.

agree completely. the issue this company has appears to be a nagging overhang of stock...decent newsflow won't translate into share price momentum if a seller pops up every time to collapse the bid. from an LTH perspective, that's frustrating but nothing more.
as you point out, if the growth rates off a larger sales base can continue at this kind of rate then the operational dog will eventually wag the share price tail and TRX will be valued efficiently at some point. Perhaps the other benefit of a low share price is that the management have to keep it lean and will also look for debt/bank financing to get them to b/e rather than dilute us via more equity. They only need a couple of million to get us to b/e if we keep at this rate - and no capital need at all if we were to accelerate from here.

yep. cash is fine. this business has been stripped right down to the bone and runs on a shoe-string by the US team....there's no need for a placing. the very clever, experienced guys with VC track-records who appeared on the register in the summer to save this company have no interest in diluting their positions with unnecessary cap raises. this company is going to show solid progression in the top line each time it reports and eventually investors will understand just how much of an annuity those revenues are going to be. once these guys get an order they will have it for decades. You can put a very high multiple on a business that can generate such resilient revenues.
It's going to be a cracker. It's Brexit-proof, it's a great story. Just buy it and sit on it!