Member Info for cadburyhill

you've just got to wait....it's in a no-man's land at the moment. it's owned by clever, long-term-focused concept/innovation investors like Lansdowne and Woodford, but it hasn't yet got the top-line growth or the ebitda growth that the more conventional growth investors need before buying. There's going to be a set of results in the next year, if all keeps on going well, which will allow the conventional guys to buy it and then it will re-rate very sharply (and/or it will be taken-out by someone like Bayer)...I'm waiting for it to go up 3 or 4x before considering my next move.

hey, Davewin, I'd relax on the h1 17 vs h1 18 revenue situation. It's just because of the sequencing of orders. the new generation of polymers, finally formulated earlier this year, are replacing the first generation stuff so legacy orders fade before new orders pick-up.

what's exciting is that the new generation stuff is the real deal in terms of formulation and performance and so it will start to generate a far faster growth rate than the first generation stuff, because it's patently obvious to anybody looking at the performance data that it's as good as the global best-in-class AND it's sustainable. The first generation stuff performed well and was sustainable, etc. but wasn't quite as good in all conditions as it could have been (the standards and testing requirements for dishwasher tablet ingredients are incredibly high in these consumer-facing businesses).

As I understand it, the new generation stuff is why we suddenly have the real, rapid progress with Akzo...Akzo know the new gen product is world-class and know that they can sell (a lot) of it. The Akzo agreement by December is a huge, transformational catalyst for the stock - if it occurs. good luck!

Yes, tiny volumes, tiny free-float. It’s plain ridiculous to be down here given the sound progress and the opportunity in the endocrine space, but it’s not unique. a number of innovation stocks have traded down over the summer. I presume the valuation anomaly will attract buyers at some point but have given up trying to guess when!
We do have first read of phase 3 data in early October so not too long to wait for that and other catalysts before year- end.
Diurnal is a fine company with powerful IP and profound patient impact. Good luck!

just a reminder of how hot the NASH area is and what we're playing for....from today's FierceBiotech:

Viking Therapeutics has proven once again that nothing whips up biotech investors like positive Phase II numbers for NASH.
The biotech’s shares rocketed up more than 100% Tuesday morning on Viking’s boast that VK2809 slashed liver fat content — a biomarker for the disease — while delivering a drop of 20% or more in LDL in the mid-stage study.

Below is a para from a release by Swiss spec chem company, Clariant. It has announced a major restructuring and collaboration (with SABIC). I’ve pasted it because it shows that ITX is in exactly the right place in terms of global chem trends/demand.....we now just need to see the start of momentum in the croda and Akzo product lines....

The Business Area Care Chemicals expects to continue to grow above the market, at a more accelerated pace. This additional step up in growth will result from offering more innovative sustainable solutions which meet the market's increasing demand for convenience, renewable and natural products. The entry into new market segments will also support this above average growth. Consumer Care, which is comprised of Personal Care, Home Care, Crop Solutions as well as Health Care, will be the main driver of this Business Area's expansion strategy. The higher degree of specialties in Care Chemicals and the offering of more highly specified solutions will drive not only growth but also increase profitability to new heights.

you make a good point. in my experience, it's possible for a good corporate broker to find stock from existing investors and limited new issue under dis-application of pre-emption rights (typically new issues under 10% of share cap) for a new II to start to build a position. Everybody benefits from a diversified register and a new II or two can help to cornerstone any further capital raise to accelerate growth. But i'm not suggesting new issue of TRX stock here at 9p!

at least we're now on a path to break-even and that allows TRX to start to screen for other investors to consider.
one of the issues for so many of these woodford and invesco names is the concentration of ownership...it just means the share price carries enhanced gearing to share sales/purchases and sentiment...For the likes of TRX and Xeros, to name just two, that's been a curse as Brexit / UK-focused fund under-performance has driven sentiment down and private investors have run for the hills.
It does mean that when sentiment turns these stocks are going to move a lot higher, very quickly because underlying op performance has been good.

agreed...i suspect that the market knew that there was a potential for a beat and that the company probably guided Hardman to the conservative end of things in terms of numbers. the issue we have is that the market for this stock currently contains just a few PA investors. we've yet to see any institutional buyers and until we do, we won't see a proper move higher. management will be seeing investors over the next couple of weeks so we can watch and wait. no institutional investor would buy this name on the numbers alone - they'd want to meet management also.
Of course, I've assumed that the sell pressure which drove us down to 8p and below has now ceased...I accept that I could be wrong on that....

dave win,, i think you've got this one 100% wrong. but I know that losses hurt and i'm sorry about that. i doubt there's anyone on this board who hasn't suffered substantial loss. the reality is pretty simple: this company ran too low on cash because the global spec chemical companies they're trying to supply took a long time to validate the Itaconix product. all listed companies need to demonstrate that they're a 'going concern' (see Carillion for details). in order for these guys to do that, they needed to radically reduce all costs and that has led to the UK closure. IF you believe that their products are sustainable, high quality and will be in demand by consumers, then you'd be absolutely nuts to sell. you should keep it for 5 years and then revisit. you know as well as I that investing requires you to over-ride your instinct. this is a great example of that...good luck!

There’s a huge amount of operational leverage here. All the numbers are going in the right direction. This company is turning into a genuine growth stock. The capital raise and acquisition last year was a big, bold step, not liked by all investors - hence the sell pressure that led to a sub-10p share price - but it has paid off.
I see no reason why this stock will not be trading in the 20’s in the next couple of months. I think management have done a cracking job.....

Call your broker up and ask him to offer you £500,000 of modern water stock and see what he/she quotes you.
But I take your point....I guess strategic investors just aren’t that price sensitive. They’re paying for access to the IP and don’t need to demonstrate a paper trading profit to anybody....
I’ve assumed that Easterbrook has been a background seller over the last couple of months, which has meant the share price performance has been a disappointment to many....

Any Synairgen holder should read the RNS from Arix out today. They’ve invested heavily in our Australian friends, which is a great validation of our LOXL2 and Synairgen.
Arix are super smart.

I do understand....although when buying here you're buying at a pre-IPO private market price and it's a heck of a lot more developed now and de-risked than it was then.
If you can't see the revenue line growing quickly-enough to justify the cash burn then you should look elsewhere under normal circumstance. But, if you can be optimistic, you should consider the possibility that there's M&A activity as the most likely outcome here and the emphasis on multi-year revenue progression is less relevant.
In very highly concentrated markets like these ones, the big global OEMs like exclusive licences of the technology they're going to invest in. I suspect that the price of an exclusive licence and an actual take-out price for Xeros - or parts of it - aren't that far apart. so, I expect this name to be in play or parts of it to be in-play over the next year or two. the exciting scenario is that when one OEM goes for the technology, others will suddenly want it too. So you could easily get a bidding war - but I'm getting way ahead of myself! good luck with your decision.

ha, yes, true! I keep on nibbling at this name as it drops on very low volume. i like the risk reward. as we've discussed, it only takes one licence agreement to see this in double figures. perhaps I've got too much faith in Barlow, the 'new' dynamic CEO, who has a big rump of equity upside, priced around here at 6p. Perhaps I've got too much faith in the thesis that there's a consolidation trade in UK listed drug discovery engines which has to occur (C4X, ETX, Vernalis, Etc.). At this price, Barlow isn't going to be acquiring anybody, it will be the other way around or a merger of 'equals'. Either way, to sell this name here is a capitulation error in my book.

it's a good question....i try and think of Xeros as being 3 if not 4 separate businesses, which helps to explain the large number. Also, I think there's been a strategic decision by the bod to go for 'first mover advantage' - and that does involve a rapid capital deployment in key target markets rather than a slower build-out which would run the risk of their IP/approach being copied/crushed by global competitors. In concentrated, monopolistic markets like laundry, that's the right approach, I think.
Tannery is on its own and the size of the kit involved there is quite capital intensive as they partner in co-development. My hope is that we're now at the license stage this year with limited further capital required. Then there is the US laundry business, which has involved M&A, installation and support, sales and marketing, trade fairs, etc.. It feels like that could be demerged/US listed at some point. I also include in the US business the small batch development cost for residential. I separate-out the global laundry business - Sea Lion, SA, Australia, etc..Not sure if that's the right thing to do... And then, finally, there's the R&D 'next gen' development project stuff like denim, agri, etc. and UK HQ costs, where cost discipline could be an issue.
I'm convinced that a large seller has driven this stock to levels which offer extraordinary value. My problem is that I just don't know when the seller stops. As for funding, it's always an issue but the RNS did state that fund-raising would be deal related and I take that to mean more US specialist clothing, which would hopefully be accretive very soon. I think the firm would be very reluctant to issue equity down here. So would hope for positive newsflow and a healthier share price before we have to cross that bridge....

if we can all stop pulling hair and biting each other, i thought this article on exosome potential might be of interest / a distraction. no mention of us but interviews with Stephen J Gould, who presented at the RENE analyst day a month or so back. there's also some recent transaction info from the exosome sector which gives confidence to valuation of that part of the RENE business. good luck all.

https://cen.acs.org/business/start-ups/Meet-exosome-rising-star-drug/96/i31?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+analytical_scene+%28Chemical+%26+Engineering+News%3A+Analytical+SCENE%29

I think it's important for us all to remember that the company is what it is and its equity is actually something different - a market instrument. all the comments I read here are about the operational excellence and performance of the company and many of those comments are well-informed and the arguments are well made.
but the IQE stock is a 'super-cyclical'. It's a semi-conductor stock. Semi-conductor stocks have high betas and are traded very aggressively by most professional investors in the market - T-Rowe being a fundamental, through-the-cycle exception (think Baillie Gifford, too). Super-cyclical stocks tend to move all in one direction with little differentiation being made across quite different businesses. It just means there's no point fighting the tape and yelling at the 'short sellers'. For right or wrong, the professional investors are trying to sell these stocks ahead of the last earnings upgrade in the semi cycle and will try and buy semi stocks ahead of the last earnings downgrade in the cycle. that's just what they do......Sure we have some structural growth here and that's why we are all excited about IQE but we've got to wear these aggressive moves up and down and try to block out the noise otherwise mistakes will be made (capitulation at the bottom/topping-up at the top)...My 'advice' for what it's worth is always keep some ammo back because this stock will get cheaper than you ever thought it would - and then will get more expensive than you ever thought it would...you got to have some ammo to buy on the big sell-offs.

no worries.
it's definitely a really exciting next stage and Modern Water has a better than average chance of capitalising on it to become a world leader in its use in membranes via its academic and other connections in the UK, but we're not there yet.....
It's something the big french water and gas companies are very interested in...the likes of Air Liquide, Suez, Veolia, etc. if modern water ever cracked next gen graphene deployment in membranes it would be taken-out by one of these players.
all best/good luck.

'the membrane is graphene'. you sure? where have you seen that in print? I know they've got an R and D relationship with Manchester Uni but not aware that graphene had been commercially deployed in membrane.

It’s worth reading the today’s positive RNS for Puretech’s resTORbio….they’ve had v good data showing reductions in respiratory tract infections in ageing asthma suffers in Phase 2. however, their molecule had no affect on COPD patients. At first I was concerned that these guys were ahead of us, now it reads like we are complementary in terms of treatment options for SNG001.

From the PureTech RNS: To better understand the activity observed in the RTB101 10 mg once daily cohort, a pre-specified analysis of each patient subgroup enrolled in the study was conducted. The following decreases in the percentage of patients with laboratory-confirmed RTIs were observed in the RTB101 10 mg once daily cohort as compared to the placebo cohort:

68.4% decrease in all asthma patients (p=0.0002)

66.7% decrease in all patients 85 years of age and older (p=0.007)

26.9% decrease in all T2DM patients (p=0.020)

No decrease was observed in either COPD patients or current smokers; a 42.0% decrease in all patients was observed when excluding patients with COPD (p=0.002) and a 43.9% decrease in all patients was observed when excluding current smokers (p=0.001)

Encouraging to see U.K. listed Puretech land a deal with Roche in exosomes for a few tens of millions upfront and up to a billion in license/ royalty upside. Puretech have focused on milk exosomes which can tolerate stomach acids so are suitable for oral delivery. but it’s a significant validation for the broader exosomes field, too - in which RENE is a real player.