Member Info for BwanaMakubwa

Dandino-the difference is MB will exercise warrants and hold,K exercises and sells.As I said highly frustrating, but does not half provide an incredible buying opportunity for genuine LTHs with patience.

Rover-I read somewhere he needs another $900k by November,but cannot verify the source.

Kabunga is still selling to fund Volt-I have read that he needs $900k by November to inject into Volt.Given the the level of selling since ML-he is probably nearly there.Recently he has not sold under 5p,so 4.8/5p appears to be a base.Last time I spoke to MB the timetable was a target of takeoffs and full funding by Christmas.Given that Kabunga is probably nearly done for now to hit his $900k if I was MB I would hold off significant news flow until Kabunga's selling has dissipated so as to announce into a market without a large structural seller.Good news will then not be significantly sold into.Do not forget that Kabunga through warrants,CLNs and common stock once had over 10% of the company-it is his selling over the last year that is the reason for the depressed price, but in my view it is a gift to get in cheap.Kabunga selling will not last forever.
On the deal remember we still have about $1.5m of liquid assets on the balance sheet, probably still $700k of cash from the last placing and converted warrants will raise about $3m if I remember correctly.So that is $5.2m of equity.We should get another $5-7m in prepay offtakes (Blackrock got $5m on smaller production),so that takes us to $10.2-12.2m equity on the balance sheet leaving a mere $26-28 million extra to find in debt and additional equity.Quite frankly I see a scenario where you can get the lot in debt or just a very small $2-3m equity placement at a much higher price than today.This is the advantage of having a heavily invested CEO-he really cares about minimising dilution.
Bottom line the ML wait was very tedious (out of MB's hands),the Kabunga selling is very tedious (out of MB's hands),but in my opinion we now have a really undervalued future star here.I have pruned a few other positions to buy more here recently.In my opinion MB is playing a blinder and the news flow will pick up substantially as the Kabunga selling dries up.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-58906955

At 7 tons of magnet metal per windmill DP you do not really need the auto industry at all-just a "nice to have".

Forgot PRE too..

...ACP,IRR,RBW...come on HZM if others can do it so can you.

...welcome back. Great re-entry price!!

Dumbpunter-I think more like 3 years away, but that is fine most of us are invested here on a 3-7 year view, but suspect we will get taken out after 2-4 years. You will find investors on here now are LTHs who have averaged down at these sub £1 levels or indeed averaged up as many of the Aussies are in at sub 20p.Core holders here are not traders.

Some reasonable sized buys today.If I was an institution I would want to be on the register ahead of the placing.That normally guarantees a better allocation in the placing.

Thanks RL-wow look at that EBITDA and EPS growth in 2021/22/23.
Will read in detail-but that is what really excites me re HZM-huge gearing to rising nickel price.We are in for an exciting few years here guys and girls.

Hi RosyLee can you tell me what Nickel Mines Ltd P/E is please for 2022,23 and 24-I am going to use the simpler P/E method to do my valuation once we know the total, fully diluted shares outstanding.Will also probably use $25k/ton for first year of production.The other thing that will be interesting is being able to work out the gearing to the nickel price.i.e for every $1k move in nickel price what does this do to EPS.The fact we are a pure play is such good news-ignoring the cobalt of course.
Nickel price had a shot of steroids this morning.

I hope so CT-that would make more sense to me.
I should also add if I was an institution wanting to get a decent piece of the equity raise, I would start buying in the market now in order to get favourable treatment in the deal. Very clear that this upcoming equity deal is going to be very different to the rapid overnight bookbuild we had last time round.

I must admit to being slightly suprised by the share price reaction following last weeks financing news. As Wasa, RosyL and others have pointed out here the terms of the debt are nothing short of suberb for a £135 million market cap company. I cannot help but think the cornerstone and institutions will want as much of the equity piece as possible. My own view is that any PI offer will be pretty tiny, the company will want professional institutional shareholders going forward, not more PIs. The chances of any big discount are to my mind pretty slim. It should only take a matter of weeks before the offtake agreement(s) and cornerstone are announced now that the debt is signed off. If the Company is sensible-which I strongly believe it is-they will announce offtake first to boost the share price. I know they have said everything will be announced as one, but there is absolutely no reason that they have to stick by that. Still firmly believe the shares will be closer to 15p than 10p by Christmas as retail profit takers are easily absorbed by institutions wanting an ESG compliant, pure nickel play.

Salmon-"My view is the market in the past and currently values HZM as an average AIM miner/explorer which in my view mis-price's the company on the low side as it has the ambition and the expertise/competence to out perform the average. I'm satisfied my view is being vindicated so far." Could not agree more hence my hope that we uplift to FTSE PDQ.
RosyLee-thanks for your excellent posts.I hope you become a shareholder again,if not please just keep posting-hugely informative.

Smoggy and Wasa-interesting debate. My own view is that once we go into production analysts will use both % of NPV and EBITDA multiples as valuation paramaters. Also by the time A1 is into production much more value will become ascribed to A2 and presumably a fully DFS'd Vermelho.
I think Smoggy's 7.5x EBITDA is perfectly reasonable given:
1) The expected prevailing nickel price.
2) The long lifetime of the assets.
3)My belief in the supercycle-which for the "green" metals I think will be stronger and more sustained than any historic supercycle,meaning that it will attract premium valuations probably exceeding those valuations not seen since the early 2000s China demand induced supercycle when every generalist fundmanager in London and the USA was stuffed full of mining stocks.
Once the full deal is revealed I will do my own calculations to try and derive a 4 year price target, but I am expecting to get to 50-80p-partly because I will probably us an EBITDA multiple of 8.5x-9.5x.
Incidentally if I were the Board of HZM,I would be considering a 10:1 share consolidation and an uplift to the FTSE fairly shortly after the deal closure.This will make the shares far more marketable to blue chip mainstream institutional investors-particularly the big American investors like Capital, Fidelity etc who really do not like penny stocks (unlike the typical British AIM stock PI).It is after all these type of investors that will eventually determine the valuations that HZM will trade on, not us lowly PIs.

We have had very decent buying since 1pm and a few sells only yet the price has hardly moved.Any sniff of a bit of consistent selling and they mark the price down PDQ-still think there is manipulation going on.

TDT2-I think they have always indicated those details will follow the debt RNS.
"Verismilitude"-great word by the way:))

Sorry to labour the PR point, but a $346 million competitively priced debt package on a $200m market cap junior miner is a huge deal. I hope to read all about it in the mainstream financial press tomorrow morning. We will forgive them if it does not make the Sydney Morning Herald Craigie...enjoy your beer(s) by the way!!

Hope so Brisk!!

Yes Eric-that is the exact increase in furnace costs.