Member Info for BwanaMakubwa

TD2-completely in agreement with your comments.

Thanks Eric.Personally very disappointed by the price and subsequent dilution.
Well at least they are going to progress Vermelho DFS.

Eric-where do you see that?
Looks like another overnight book build.All will be revealed with 7am RNS no doubt.

Actually just looked into this-Volt AGM is Tues 30th November,so theoretically K can probably sell for another 2 or 3 days for anything he needs for Volt.He is investing A$700k plus will presumably have capital gains tax to pay of cc35% so needs to raise in total about A$945,000 or GBP 509,000 (equates to 10,180,000 ACP shares using 5p per share).
Suspect we may start to see some ACP newsflow late this week, early next week.

Just looking at the website Top 8 holders own 68% of shares outstanding.Private clients brokers (HL,II,AJ Bell etc) own 37%,Institutions and Banks 13.44% (CIBC and Cannacord/Marlborough Funds) and Industrial players 17.56% (Teck and Glencore).
My guess is that the other 32% is held largely by other PIs with a few small specialist resource and micro cap funds.
I am hoping that on completion of financing we will see Teck as the cornerstone plus 3 or 4 proper blue chip institutions-by this I mean the likes of Fidelity,Blackrock,Schroders etc.I am also hoping that we do not bother with any further retail placing.
Currently the register is not particularly tight-although good tension is created by having Teck,CIBC and Glencore there in good size.
Going forward the sellers can only really be PIs as we "institutionalise" the register.As stated before I am hoping for a move off AIM onto the big board and a share consolidation (1 for 10) would seem sensible and makes our shares much more marketable in North America.The more quality professional institutions we get on board the safer we become from someone having a cheap Pop at us.All wishful thinking of course, but I am strongly of the opinion that we will not be taken out on the cheap, but in fact will achieve a pretty full price.Remember the impending green commodity super cycle still is not getting much coverage outside of the specialist mining press-things are only just starting to warm up.

Haffy/AtD/ Rover-can we confirm that Friday was the last date that Kabunga could raise cash for his last round of Volt financing?
I know it is some time before end of November,but not sure of exact date.

Great price Muck-I got 4.51p and will continue to buy if this continues to weaken next week and beyond as I have had some spare cash land.

FEED should be soon now, though FEED processes everywhere seem to be taking longer due to difficulties getting certain quotes-all COVID/supply chain related.However, we must be close.
Agree with AtD comment that Capex bill will likely rise due to inflation-I am expecting cc$45m now up from $39m-although please note the Company has made no comment on this.But also agree with AtD that this will be more than offset by higher basket price of $1,300 or possibly more plus a 30% increase on the current NPV covering just 25% of the resource.
On another note you will read a lot about poor management comms here and it is undeniable that they need to be great. However, this will change once news starts to flow.Personally I am a fan of Matt Bull-I think he has strong integrity is aligned fully with us and is currently negotiating the best deal possible into increasingly strong fundamentals.
As per below I think any final equity placement will be small-my guess $3-5m and will be at a considerably higher price than we are today.
Finally Kabunga has had such a depressing effect on the share price that once we get a sense he has stopped selling it will be a big signal for traders and technical buyers to pile in.As again pointed out by AtD,HZM is a great comparison here-huge selling by JPM,CityFinancial and Richard Griffiths severely depressed the share price for what seemed like ages, but the brave who bought into it have tripled their money already(sadly I was not one of those as I only discovered HZM in the high 5p area).However, the comparison is 100% valid-I have always believed that if you can find great stocks where there is a large distressed/technical seller and you buy into it you will make great money-the company itself is fine-it is the seller who is distressed.GLA

A combination of Kabunga selling and bored/impatient PIs more recently heading for the door has provided a great entry point here.I added more today at 4.51p and will add more next week if the weakness persists.This is a classic "technical" weakness opportunity.Key buy points:
-CEO,friends and family own 20%.
-Kabunga selling has allowed in an increasing number of LTHs looking for production who now hold large quantities of stock and not spooked by the weakness, but in fact continue to add.
-IRR 91% on 25% of the available resource.
-Capex a mere $39m,but in fairness with recent inflation may now be up to $45m ish (my guess not from the Company).Easy opencast mining.
-Balance sheet strong-liquid assets currently cc$2m.
-Basket price and NPV likely to see strong near term upgrades.
-Offtakes lining up in a very hot graphite market.
-Additional equity issuance likely to be minimal-my guess $5m max and done at prevailing mid market price.
Bottom line absolute overlooked value gem here.
No concerns on my part.

Hope so-as previously indicated that is key to unlocking value here.
I hope we move to big board once financing complete-AIM has become an inefficient s..t show of late.
Having said that the London market is arguably less relevant as a whole than it was 15 years ago. Apple, Google, Facebook ,Microsoft and probably Tesla now have market caps individually greater than the whole FTSE 100-puts it all into a bit of perspective. However, that could be a bullish signal for London perversely enough.

China-I think you have got it. RareEarther =Hamilton Engineering Part 2.

Missed that-thanks.

OTH-just building A1 for now I believe-what makes you think V too?

No chance of any offer being accepted at the moment.We have too many strong interested parties already involved-unless of course someone is tempted to put a blowout offer on the table-slim chance, but very, very unlikely at this stage in my honest opinion.

Agree-nothing new here, except good to see we still have £18.3m on the balance sheet-conservative cash management.

I have always hoped to see us go well into production before being acquired as I wanted to see a maximised price and am happy to hold for another 4/5 years. However, given recent M&A developments in the sector I have to agree with the commentary earlier-it now seems very likely we will be taken out sooner rather than later.But Vermelho is the absolute key to me.It is our most valuable asset, yet there is no value at all ascribed to it in our share price.JM knows this and has commented on the fact repeatedly.Hence in my view there is zero chance of a takeover until the full Vermelho DFS has been conducted to ascertain and ascribe a value to that asset.The DFS will be conducted during 2022, once completed then we become fair game, but not before-unless of course a major decides to take a big punt-not impossible, but unlikely.
Hopefully given the nickel price and very real looming shortage we will still get an acceptable price (40p plus for me).

"Bwana - no one outside the company knows who it will be."
Strummer-I totally agree, but it is very hard for us not to speculate-it is also interesting to read others well argued views.
My speculation of Teck as the cornerstone is simply my belief that HZM would prefer to have an "operator" on board who will add value in the construction and early production phases, rather than an investment bank who have undoubted expertise, but in investment and M&A not operational activity.
I am also beginning to think that HZM will eventually be broken up between several acquirers, not just one.This will bring greater value to us shareholders than a single buyer and is a situation where CIBC can really apply their expertise.
But at this stage simply conjecture-the facts will be revealed over time.
Whatever happens (bar black swans) the shares will be a lot higher in 2 and 3 years time.

Very interesting post Picked, but in this rare instance I have to disagree with you.
CIBC will make very good money from their equity stake, but as you point out CIBC is " the world's largest M&A advisor in Metals and Mining".Double whammy for them-they will make great money when the M&A starts from their existing equity price appreciation, but secondly from the huge M&A advisory fees they will charge negotiating HZM the best deal once the fireworks start.
I remain very much in the camp of many here-Teck cornerstone,Glencore off taker.
However,whatever the final permutation, this is getting very, very interesting.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-59192048

To state the obvious-huge for nickel and huge for HZM.

Contrarian the fact the Directors are in a "close period" when they cannot trade is a fact and not an excuse.They will indeed have been unable to transact in their own shares all year due to being in financing negotiations.I think you will find that they will be purchasing shares in the final closing stage of funding.
Also as you note options form a decent part of their remuneration packages.I am very much in favour of including options in remuneration as it incentivises managements to perform and ties them to the share price like any other shareholder.With his 28.5 million options Jeremy Martin will be deservedly rich when he sells the Company for 50-90p.