Member Info for BwanaMakubwa

Well if people stop selling the short will get squeezed as they try to cover and the shares will go up.

MrB-if you want the shares buy them in the market now at 6.55p.The offer is at 7p.If you do not want them just ignore it.I have the same,but have bought in market.

...and on the subject of posturing Lawrence ? :))
Anyhow I always enjoy your upbeat posts-keep them coming!!

Yes-I was not overly happy with several aspects of the deal-excessive dilution, very onerous CLN terms, no offtake prepay etc-all issues we have been through. However, like Strummer,I still believe we have great assets that are of great value and will be of even greater value in the future.Hence I bought another 700k shares between 6.55p and 6.75p.Upside will be lower and will take longer to achieve but is safer. It has become my pension plan, not my spending money.
My only point was that I am suprised we have not seen large institutional buying down here from placees now the price appears to have settled.

Simply to lower your average in price.

One would hope that that all the takers in the placement would now be looking to average down on their 7p investments, but does not seem to be happening in any great way, infact the only institutional activity we can be certain of is the shorter.

Yes-good interview.
Sounds like he is looking to buy back the CLN-very good news prevents another 730m shares hitting the market.

Ha ha-very good chaps!! Spellcheck is a nuisance!!

Hi Craig-I agree with all your comments below. It is a bearish case from an author who has always been bearish on HZM. But please JM-do buy back those CLNs and save us from further heavy dilution.

Https://masterinvestor.co.uk/commodities/looking-ahead-at-horizonte-minerals/?mc_cid=e3d4e4ed2f&mc_eid=3347224638

Lets hope they use some of the contingency to buy out those punitive CLNs.That would actually make a big difference.

"Individually not influential, but as a group not tiny, 80m + shares."
This has got me thinking Picked-could you possibly email me your mobile-richardprice1962@aol.com

Ivor-okay Dubai/Middle East.

Picked-as I understand it the placing shares will only count towards the net position once they are admitted for trading on Dec 22nd.The Saudis would have been pre-marketed to ahead of the placing along with a large number of other institutions.They could have easily worked out that the placement was going to be much larger than the market expected, hence the shares would collapse on Wednesday morning which they did.But if I remember correctly they remained at above 7.3p bid for several hours giving plenty of time to short without breaking NDA rules, which would not allow them to short ahead of Wednesday's open.I remain convinced the Saudis are firmly in the placing book.Covering shorts in secondary placements is an often used hedge fund tactic, which our brokers should have known all about.

If the Saudis took part in the placing (which I would bet good money on they did), they will simply close the short or most of the short via placing shares.Given the low quality book in February,I am yet to be persuaded that the book was significantly better this time round.Had we had a hugely oversubscribed placement we would have placed at 7.5p and the takers would have had to fill up there positions in the aftermarket taking up all the PI selling supply.This has patently has not happened.I think the climb up from here will initially be quite slow.However, hopefully management do not want the embarrassment of all the new 7p placing shares entering the market at 6.5p on Dec 22nd and will hence do all they can to at least get the market price to 7p.
Role on the share consolidation, the move off AIM and hopefully the appointment of a strong global Investment bank replacing our current second division lot of brokers.

Picked-thanks.
Yes I was frustrated and disappointed-but as you have eloquently argued this week, we still have incredible assets, we are financially derisked and we have a great management-if a little naive at times re capital markets.
We are still going to make very good money.
Plus good to see Rosy Lee on board-she is a tough and very knowledgeable cookie.

Hi Strummer-at the beginning of October he had 19m shares left plus about 30m warrants.The volume since then would suggest he is through the bulk of his shares.The Volt AGM when he has to cough up about A$950k including CGT (£510M) is on 30th Nov-so for now at least, conceivably the bulk of his selling is done.
Welcome on boarder-expect faster and greater upside here than HZM now, plus our CEO is very aligned with us and puts his own hands into his pocket to buy shares.

Well I called that badly wrong.Under company guidance I assumed a $500m raise and a single cornerstone.Hence mathematically believed the cornerstone would have to pay a premium to stay under 30%.I had just seen a 15% premium paid by Piedmont for a chunk of Ironridge-premiums can and do happen.We end up with $630m and 2 cornerstones.I do not blame management-with hindsight I am sure the banks had them under the cosh re a huge equity contingency and then Orion and La Mancha put them in a headlock.However,I do think management could have given us some indication of the upscaling of the deal size-they chose not to and the market (and me) got caught by surprise.It is of no surprise at all then that the price is now 6.5p-I assume management are not surprised by this either-they must have realised this was going to happen.
So the upsize I understand and do not blame management-but they could have limited damage by warning the market-that was poor judgement.What does annoy me and I note Rosy Lee also expressed surprise is the CLNs.I do not have a problem with CLNs per se,but the terms here are penal to existing holders-11.5% interest plus conversion at 8.75p (they were taking higher than this in February).6/7% interest and conversion at 12p would have been more palatable.
Now the option package-I am a big supporter of using options to incentivise management, but under the right terms.Let's award them on achievement of challenging milestones and certain share price levels been achieved-otherwise they become giveaways not incentives.
On the share consolidation-great news.While we are at it lets also uplift to the FTSE and appoint a decent global broker.BMO is good in Canada,Peel Hunt is a Tier 2 traditional UK broker.The February placing was disaster (although I agreed with the logic) and by the short that has just been reported it seems that the placing brokers were once again allowed to get away with a pretty shoddy book.Please appoint someone like Jefferies who have very strong UK,European and USA distribution and excellent M&A credentials-then we might start getting the like of Blackrock and Fidelity onto the register.I would bet a lot of money the places this time around are again a bunch of second tier institutions and hedge funds.
I added more on Thursday and am now substantially into 8 figures shares, but like others am now expecting slower appreciation and less upside.HZM is now tucked away for 5 years (or takeover) and new money will go into ALL and ACP who have greater and quicker upside.HZM is for retirement.

Very interesting to see if Maven were in the book.My guess is they probably were.So if they shorted early on Wednesday for an average of 7.4p they were certain they could cover at 7p and make a quick and certain 5.5%.As it is they can now cover at 6.6p,even better, but will have to take up their book order at 7p, unless perhaps they only cover say 50% of the short with their book ordering the rest down here in the market.
Given the very poor quality of the book last time, the above scenario looks very plausible to me.Once again the spies have got into the placing book.

Shearclass I think your post pretty much nailed it.
Particularly agree that the CLN terms are outrageous.
7p implies the brokers struggled to place this-so we probably got the usual parade of fly by night hedge funds who shorted in the market to take placing shares.
My worry going forward-as you suggest-is that the Banks, Orion and La Mancha now call all the shots with JM as their whipping boy.

Poor-maybe need to change their brokers going forward. Hope we have good institutions not a similar rabble of short term spivs as we got last time.