Member Info for brookieboy69

Thanks - not in my HL account yet

Thanks Shadowless and Tricky. I may be reinvesting the dividend today!!

I was just hoping that others would review my numbers and say where I’d gone wrong/applied incorrect assumptions. Nothing to do with any potential takeover.

Cheers all.

Views are very welcome - I'm seeing the shell as worth 0.33-0.43p per share.

We don't know if the USD35m received from the mine disposal have been converted to GBP, but let's assume they all have been (as £25m needed for the 1.8p dividend payment). The FX range since March has been 1.2-1.26, so the GBP amount has a range of about £27.8-29.2m. The 1.8p dividend costs £25.1m, leaving £2.7-4.1m from the disposal - this equates to 0.19-0.29p per share . There should also be some cash that was previously held - it was $5.3m a year ago, so I'd guess about $2.5m/£2m left, or 0.14p per share. Add these together and you get to the 0.33-0.43pps.

Obviously some assumptions in there, and I'm not suggesting you go and buy any AMC, but what am I missing (other than Robin could have bought a Company jet etc).

AGE

I agree with your thoughts based on all the history - the BoD have never seemed to realise that we are the owners of AMC, nor offered us the courtesy of reasonable updates, nor meeting self imposed deadlines. So for me this could be a payout of 0.3p+ (going down by the day) or a cracking deal (as they did once before). Time will tell, and no doubt dragged out as long as possible.

Hope you (and us all) get lucky.

Decided to sell the kids’ shares in their JISA today. Overall they somehow made a (small) profit but that ignores the potential returns they could have made elsewhere.

For myself and my partner I’m prepared to sit and wait (will I ever learn) and dream that they will come up with a cracking deal.

Gazzleberry - I’m afraid you are wrong Gazzleberry, but then again any of us who have held Amur are probably not 100% the ticket.

AGE - I hope most people are aware that they can buy shares in either company, but implying that the cash value is the only relevant factor is not helpful.

AGE - thanks for you view; and it is just a view. I was trying to help explain that the potential successful legal claim does have a value (that you didn’t acknowledge or express well). The actual value is of course uncertain - and based on each of our judgements on this then we make what we individually think is a sensible decision.

Agneiss

I interpret it slightly differently - yes AMC shareholders are probably only getting about 40-50% of the cash value we have via this deal, but the legal claims for the €500m are worth something too E.g if there’s a 10% chance of success then in very basic terms it’s worth €50m to the enlarged company. If Ex-AMC shareholders then own 20%, that’s worth €10m or about 0.5p per share.

PS I’ve had experience of 2 firms with their main asset just being a legal claim. One of them came up trumps and the other didn’t, but both took many years to come to fruition (the other party will delay at every opportunity) - so this will not be a quick earner.

You called this correctly BB. Fair play to you.

Worth you posting 1 daily view from hereon.

The BoD know the position exactly - just the usual poor communications but nothing new in that!

Has the “90 days” been stated as just days, or could it be business days? If the latter then we could be looking at end July for payment.

A risk for certain, but buying at 1.6x for a 1.8p dividend by June, plus the benefit of the remains of the company, seems one that’s balanced in our favour. So just placed a couple of buys (showing as sells of course on here!)

GLA

Whilst unlikely to yield a response of any kind, it may be worth messaging the Company via their website to request an update on the sale of the mine. If they see enough volume of similar requests from shareholders then they may be prompted to issue an update via an RNS.

Putin will be gone;
War will end in 2024;
Russia will need to start reintegrating into International trade;
Siblov deal will have lapsed;
New deal from China comes in for Amur - a whopping 5p;
Robin manages to negotiate the deal at 2p but with a golden handshake.

Not sure this is true. Robin Young holds only 10m shares, so market value only £100k. So about the same as 3 months’ remuneration from AMC.

We can criticise him for the Russian war, without which are share price would probably be 10x higher now, but that’s clearly unfair. But what I cannot stand is the poor or non-existent communications - missed deadlines, and relevant points that are never followed up over the last decade. That’s led to the complete mistrust that we have now. If only the Board realised this and bothered to send out an RNS or 2.

…followed by the Russian holidays, so nothing expected until last Jan now.

Next week - Post completion and receipt of the $35m, AMC will have $38m of cash worth 2.35p per share. So a 40%+ upside for the cash alone, with no geopolitical risk expected next week. The shell left behind may also have some value. As each day ticks buy I am tempted to take a gamble.

2 things
1) this is a binary bet - if sale falls through then this will be near worthless
2) the upside is more than 0.2p. The USD/GBP fx rate movement alone has added a fair bit to the GBP value, so upside is more than 0.5p or 30%+

Although we were unfortunate with this being based in Russia, I agree that the BoD have been poor - so would strongly prefer a 2nd payout and then sell the company as a shell (with tax losses to utilise) to maximise returns (minimise my losses!) and in 2023.