Exit Strategy23 Aug 2019 17:14
Most private holders, no doubt, have an idea on their exit strategy. Of course everyone has different drivers and varying views. As the boys in Aces Bar are about to celebrate the Joe well spud tonight, I though a summary of their opinion may help:
Joe is obviously derisked. There is a working hydrocarbon system in the block. However, Joe is a different play type to Jethro and its far from a slam dunk. 50/50 is a fair enough chance of this well coming in strong. Like Jethro the boys from Aces Bar might get a whiff of things before any news gets official.
As the boys understand it, Eco will wait on the Joe result before starting an asset sale process. Eco will keep the Namibia acreage and continue as a company. Total are in the best place to pick to Eco’s Guyana business and a deal that includes a farm down and wells carry in Namibia is on the cards for Eco. The boys hear talk of various sales figures and converting this to the existing share price would give a figure of around 4 pounds if Joe comes in strong. Seems a lot, I know, but the recoverable reserves from Eco’s block are huge - there is a lot of follow up drilling to be planned, especially if Joe comes in.
My personal strategy is to hold for the sale unless negative Joe news breaks. If Joe is dry or non commercial , obviously the share price will pull back but an exit point of around 3 pounds is still on the cards.
In summary, Joe is not the key to high shareholder returns with Eco but a commercial strike sure will help. One thing is guaranteed, the share price, barring any black swan events, will be much higher than it is today.