Member Info for BrightSpot

For a successful offshore oilfield development you essentially need :

- Up to date and revised independent resource report.

- Project team in place.

- Known budget and financing.

- Host construction or redevelopment contract.

- Subsea equipment purchase contract.

- Drilling rig contract.

- Hydrocarbon sales/offtake contract or spot market option.

There was a time when the jigsaw was just a few pieces complete and the picture was unclear. The picture is now fully in focus.

Posts of 50p by the end of March are no longer fanciful, but look on the money. Personally I see Rockhopper north of 50p before too much longer.

BP let go a lot of its exploration and oil and gas new ventures team about four years ago. It will take them considerable time to get “back” into the oil and gas business unless they acquire something with magnitude.

BP did not look seriously at the Falklands at the time of the Sealion farm out. Could it be different this time around ?

There have been serious discussions about a third Sealion partner and, to my knowledge, these discussions remain live. Getting Shenandoah up and running removes a lot of risk for a future partner. A third partner will happen, it’s all down to the timing.

Exciting times ahead ….

The Northern Basin has its workscope vision laid out - first oil, Sealion full development, Isobel, other tie-backs, gas commercialization, other prospects exploration. There will be periodic news flow for many, many years to come.

The Southern Basin is deepwater, one well that found condensate at Darwin and nothing else apart from potential. Rockhopper has average in the Southern Basin from its takeover of FOGL in 2015. Indeed it has average right beside Darwin.

Logic dictates that the Southern Basin development is years, even decades away. There is no "chatter" on any imminent Southern Basin news, yet the Borders share price has done well. Off the back of Rockhopper exclusively, or is there a "quiet story" afoot ?

My view is that the story remains in the North and Borders will benefit from the shadow of Rockhopper. Border's market capitalization is small and any news will enhance it significantly. I don't expect Borders to get into double figures but, hey, I've been wrong before !

Shenandoah remains on track for first oil in Q2 and this is where my focus is, right now.

The Shenandoah FPS is in US waters !! The FPS will stay in Ingleside, Texas until late February before tow out to location. I understand the first two wells for production are ready and a further two will go into production post first oil. I understand first oil remains on track for mid Q2.

It's not straight forward getting to first oil and ensuring good production reliability, but nothing suggests that Beacon will not manage this successfully.

The next few months are obviously critical for Sea Lion FID.

Beacon are a private company and don't go out of their way to publish news flow. I suspect we may get notice about the FPS being in situ and thereafter first oil.

We enter an exciting phase of Shenandoah and by connection Sea Lion.

I suspect we will see 50p somewhere in the next few months.

I popped into Sharkey’s last night for a game of pool with the dancing girls and a few Angkors. The bar was relatively quiet and certainly less busy than the last time I had been there a few weeks ago.

The old timers were, as normal, all there. I think they were debating Marlon’s hump, with most agreeing she was full to the brim.

The Barman was chatting to the Cellarman. The Cellarman had returned for his journeys. I overheard him say the Zaza was quiet. However, new visitors to the Zaza had emerged and were looking forward to a key arrival very shortly.

The Owner looked very pleased with himself.

Here comes the sun !

I consider the past week’s share price movements as healthy and normal. It’s virtually impossible to predict the share price movement on a daily basis given the many external factors. Bloobird did a good job, but even his skillset was stretched !

I would agree that 30p to 40p would seem a reasonable range until news is forthcoming.

Whilst the daily and weekly trends will fluctuate the journey’s destination remains clear; 50p is all but a certainty, sooner rather than later.

Zaza reopened this week. Quiet so far, but let’s see.

Here comes the sun !

Thanks for sharing this good piece of analysis.

Various options are open to Navitas to raise cash.

Follow the dots - Navitas - Israeli government - energy security - offshore gas fields - cash.

Here comes the sun !

It’s good to see Gill has a lot of skin the game. He is paid handsomely though and has various share options. To be fair, he has not done much for the share price in the last few years but having said that, he has positioned Eco nicely with cash in the bank and hopefully a string of share price increasing news.

Patience wearing thin, but we will get rewarded with Eco.

Whilst no-one likes to see the sp drop a few pence, this is normal and very healthy.

The shale players in the US are currently at a high level of drilling and lessons have been learnt from 2015/2016. Trump’s words are essentially rhetoric, although he will deregulate some and be very oil and gas friendly. No doubt LNG exports will be restored.

The Zaza is like a ghost town today but that will change …

I completed my final top up today. I suspect 50p is not that far off.

Here comes the sun !

I suspect that this could well be the last retrace before this share comes to life. I took the opportunity to top up today.

News and a re-rate is coming ….

Hi Mark,

Thanks for the insightful video. I would agree with a lot of your inputs and insights.

For now, i see the FID in 2025 but depends on Shenandoah first oil and initial reliability.

My calculations put us forensically north of 250p at first oil.

The main unknown for me is what else will get developed and produced out-with the current proven reserves. I remain of the opinion that Isobel is larger than Sealion, reserves wise. Time and the drill bit will tell on that.

The third party will muddy the water a bit analysis wise.

I would also assume that’s Rockhopper will not dilute further and have access to finance from other sources.

Exiting at about a quid is understandable. Personally i see the share price getting to an all time high (520p plus) sometime this decade.

Risks remain but there is not a better risk/reward share on aim right now.

Again, thank you for your analysis - great work !

Zara was busy last night.

Time for pedorob999 to relax, drink a bottle of Angkor and play pool with the dancing girls ?

Here comes the sun !

Sharky’s has been getting a lot busier as of late; news of the great establishment’s decline and demise were well off the mark and indeed the opposite is true – a rebirth, like the phoenix from the fire !!

The Barman has been on great form recently, dealing with the locals, new and old alike. The “oldies” remain encamped in a dark corner of the bar talking about the “Llandudno scrolls”, Clarkie, Bluehorse and making monkey sounds. Those newer to the bar play chess in another part of the bar and await the latest discoveries from Mogger.

Old legged Pete has been seen quite a lot as of late. He and the Owner are planning a special party sometime mid-year. The Owner, fresh from his 21st celebrations, is currently concentrating on getting his European cousins sorted, once and for all. The Owner has been spending some time in the Hotel Zaza; however, the hotel bar has seen no bottles of Chateau Rothschild purchased to date.

The Cellarman hasn’t been seen for a while. He’s either away acquiring some special crates for the mid-year party, in the City or perhaps in the Zaza.

All in all, Sharky’s looks like a happening place right now. Not one to miss, whether you are drinking the Angkor beer, playing pool with the dancing girls, or awaiting the Chateau Rothschild.

Sharky’s is a long way from it’s heyday but it’s coming …..

Here comes the sun !

Proactive Investors seems to be Gill’s vehicle of choice when he wants to do some small stakeholder management.

Positive news today, but already priced into the share price.

A drill on 3B/4B in 2025 sounds very promising. The Orinduik block farm out and 2025 drill sounds like mana from heaven. The impending Walvis basin blocks farm down sounds good.

Haven’t we heard this before though ?

It really sounds like share price catalysts are coming. The “share buy back” before the good news would be a master stroke ?

I remain patient !

Disappointing news from Shell regarding the commercial viability of Graff. Whilst it’s not the monster size of TotalEnergie’s Venus, Graff is big and Shell’s decision to not pursue development currently is telling.

Although not good news, in reality this means little for Block 3B/4B. Only the drilling bit will tell what treasures lie there and how the oil or gas will flow.

It’s a patience tester this share, so close to the golden trend in Guyana but not close enough although Orinduik still has enormous value in my opinion.

Farm downs can take considerable time in the oil and gas business.

Patience will be rewarded here.

Looks like a normal and heathy retrace today.

For those new investors into Rockhopper, be aware you need to hold your nerve at times. Us “oldies” will remember the inter-day crash of about 12 years ago !

There are risks with Rockhopper and we should never get ahead of ourselves too much.

It’s always worth remembering we are partnered with a very strong company in Navitas, have proven resources in the ground in an advantaged fiscal regime with much more running room with Isobel etc.

I have a large holding (for me) in Rockhopper and topped up today. I envision one further top up on the way to FID.

Taking profits is never a bad thing and being aware of the risks is essential.

Here comes the sun !

The more or less constant share price rise from mid December always looked over cooked.

The retrace today is normal and healthy.

I have taken the opportunity to add a small tranche as I believe today’s price will look like excellent value in a few months.

There is no better risk/reward share on the market right now.

Here comes the sun !

Surely we will get news on one of these issues before too much longer :

- Orinduik block farm out.

- Walvis Bain blocks farm out.

- SA block 1 farm out.

- 3B/4b drilling dates.

- A gill “special deal”, a rabbit out of the hat !

I appreciate that discussions and negotiations take time and Gill and team are incentivized to get the best deals possible.

Patience is a virtue ….

The share presents a tremendous risk/reward profile.

XOM have 90% + of Hammerhead and unitization will have little effect of the final FID. XOM and Eco will agree on unitization based on technical arguments. If they cant agree , which is unlikely, there will be a clause in the operating license to cover arbitration.

On a separate note, surely we must be on the verge of getting some farm out news. Q1 seems likely although we have been here before.

I remain committed to this share and the risk/reward remains excellent. Let’s see.

I had a few pints of the black stuff in Sharkeys over the weekend. The Barman was in excellent form and having a lot of banter with the locals.

One legged Pete however was baffled. He told me that an old friend who had once visited Sharkeys, but decided not to stay, was back and had a strong interest in talking to Pete. Baffled Pete ?

Here comes the sun !