Member Info for BrightSpot

We should be getting Shenandoah news flow / information soon and over the next few months. Host sailaway and positioning. Q2 first oil. All very, very significant for Navitas and for Rockhopper in turn.

The Italian news should drop sooner than later, but it’s taken forever already !

I have no doubt, barring a black swan event, that the share price will leave 50p behind in Q2.

I find it unusual that there has been no leaks - even Gregor, the Barman at the Grill Bar is stumped !!

The RNS disclosures suggest something positive is afoot but several significant shorts are open.

All in all, I would suggest no news has hit the “insiders grapevine”.

I would have thought a takeover price of around 75p would do the trick given Wood’s position. If Sidara walk away again it’s back to the 20’s.

I have derisked but maintain a core holding. It’s 50/50 for a win

The Falklands basins would appear to be a good fit for BP, in their current situation.

BP exited a lot of their exploration and new ventures teams so having access to basins where the geology is understood (less so in the Southern basin) would be a good fit.

Perhaps not as unlikely as appears on first thinking.

As we all know Exxon have rigs in Guyana and getting a slot should be relatively easy to negotiate.

I would have assumed XOM would have looked carefully at Orinduik for obvious reasons. They have their hands full, short to medium term, in Guyana but XOM take a long term view and Orinduik does have hydrocarbons as we know.

I would rule out Hess given their impending potential takeover.

I know Chevron have looked at Orinduik.

Apache, or APA as they are now known, are obviously in Suriname. I don't believe they will farm in. Petronas and Equinor are a possibility.

The Stabroek partnership remain the most likely option.

This transaction is being kept very tight which is normal for XOM.

All smoke and mirrors as we await Gill to put a rabbit out of the hat !!

Well, here we are again with a decision to make.

Undoubtedly there will be press coverage over the weekend. Maybe a leak, although that has not happened to date.

We are no closer to knowing whether this will be 70p or 20p !

I have derisked but remain with a core holding. The share purchase and sale notifications remain a positive for me.

50/50 for me for good news.

I didn’t think we would see single digits again !

Any news will move the share price significantly from here.

At least three potential farmees for Orinduik and a drill this year says Gill …..

Impatient but very hopeful !

I popped into Sharkey’s last night; it was moderately busy and the jukebox was pumping out Dire Straits ”Money for Nothing”. The dancing girls were in good form, playing pool and swigging down bottles of Angkor.

One legged Pete and the Barman were happy and the talk was of a faraway place where proceedings were getting finalized and an important part of the jigsaw was being released.

The Cellarman was back from his travels and although he had no concrete news from Zaza, he was full of stories from Ingleside where everything was going as planned. The Cellarman had made an order for some Chateau Rothchild, which he expected to arrive in early summer.

One legged Pete and the Owner assured me that the clock was ticking and the pieces of the jigsaw were falling nicely into place. The Owner mentioned a surprise as he swilled his Angkor beer – look east Borgo, look east !!

I descended Sharkey’s stairs as Pink Floyd’s “Money” started and the dancing girls dragged a few locals for a game of pool.

Here comes the sun !

Approaching decision time ?

No doubt there will be press coverage over the weekend.

It’s impossible to call the share. I can see arguments and signs for a bid north of 50p and i can also see signs for no bid and a return to the low 20’s.

Long term, the share price will be over 50p, one way or another..

I have derisked some before the weekend and let’s see what comes our way !!

I believe the market is under estimating the value that Hammerhead has to Eco. Hammerhead should get FID mid 2025.

Take ultra conservative values of a project NPV of $1.5B and Eco having 1% equity share gives an Eco NPV of $15M. Simplistic calculation I agree, but Hammerhead holds significant value to a company with a current relatively low market capital value.

Today’s RNS activity shows good promise for the share price.

I have been very surprised the share price is about 34p. It would seem that news has not been leaked and no-one is significantly trading with inside information.

The share price will positively correct tomorrow if my understanding is correct.

2 well carry for 70% of the block ?

Seems a good deal for Eco considering we have been “stuck” for a while after Tullow’s exit.

Thanks for posting the link.

Not that much new from Gill except that we are down to at least 3 potential farm-in partners for Orinduik and a possible drill this year. Farm in timing to be H1 2025.

When this share explodes it will go quickly. A 2025 drill in Orinduik would be enormous for the share price.

I have re-charged myself with patience !!!

The Eco vision is compelling; it's just taking forever to get there again.

Another piece of the jigsaw …..

Operational readiness starts approximately 24 - 36 months before first oil, so the timing is indicative of Navitas’s first oil forecast of late 2027.

It’s a long time since I saw OilBrat’s Llundudno scrolls. He was adamant there was oil and that it would be produced. He was right. I miss him.

Here comes the sun !

For transparency - I have previously been a shareholder but am not currently.

Border's share price journey since Rockhopper found "momentum" in December 2024 has been very good. Border's will continue to benefit from Rockhopper's inevitable progress to Sealion FID. In turn Rockhopper would benefit from any success Borders has with its Southern basin acreage, obviously Rockhopper having significant acreage in the basin.

The current Border's placing is sensible at the price. Whether this is to provide clarity to potential farmees on Border's financial position or to remain solvent to the end of 2026 is debatable.

The market cap is now approaching 50M GBP. The share price is relatively low and can be seen as a great entry point.

Darwin has "transformed" into a development ready, low Capex project. The reality is different - there has been one exploration well on Darwin. Although it's a relatively simple structure, it requires more appraisal wells before getting close to pre-development.

A potential farmee is taking a reasonable risk - I assume a deal would be a one or two well carry for 70% plus of the Border's acerage.

There remains little "chatter"around Borders. The Southern Basin is for the big boys and these companies generally keep new ventures very tight.

Rockhopper's progress in the north will generate some share price growth and the placing has stabilized the share price.

Is the share worth a punt - yes, I can understand those to have done so or will do so. Personally I can see better value elsewhere, but I genuinely hope, for no other good reason that it benefits Rockhopper, that Borders do secure a partner.

All quiet in Zaza this week; it's too cold !!

The Shenandoah host will sailaway, Rockhopper's market cap will be above 300M GBP ........ all by the Ides of March.

I took a position yesterday.

Totally oversold, with the information that is public. Fundamentals look fine.

Planning an “in and out” though. Exit point 40p.

Eco remains disappointing. 10p ????

It looks like 3B/4b drilling is early 2026.

Walvis and Orinduik farm outs must be close ? 1A ?

Patience is the key as always - difficult to be patient though !!

Good to see 40p breached although it might retreat !

There will be continuing positive news flow for the next few months - Shenandoah host sailaway, Shenandoah hook up and first oil, drilling rig contract, Sealion host contract, Sealion subsea installation contract …

Zaza remains quiet but a third partner cannot be ruled out ….

50p on its way, it would appear !!

Here comes the sun !

The contract will most definitely be multi-year.

It is unlikely that a deepwater rig would be tendered, simply on price - you are paying for capabilities for a deepwater rig or drill ship that you don’t need in the Northern Basin.

Borders are in no position to participate with a rig contract as it stands today.

The drilling rig contract is a big commitment and one that you want to get 100% correct.

Drilling in the Northern basin has proved to be regularly “routine”, although little is routine with drilling operations.

The drilling rig contract tender shows FID is not that far off.

For a successful offshore oilfield development you essentially need :

- Up to date and revised independent resource report.

- Project team in place.

- Known budget and financing.

- Host construction or redevelopment contract.

- Subsea equipment purchase contract.

- Drilling rig contract.

- Hydrocarbon sales/offtake contract or spot market option.

There was a time when the jigsaw was just a few pieces complete and the picture was unclear. The picture is now fully in focus.

Posts of 50p by the end of March are no longer fanciful, but look on the money. Personally I see Rockhopper north of 50p before too much longer.