Member Info for BradSmith

Mr 'asty (H or N) who believes the first interpretation that suits him, irrespective of the accuracy. And quotes it , yet again , as fact!

This is conditional on favourable results as they lapse the lock-down - so is not definite by any means.

Watched all 12 episodes of Normal People on i-player today - it does not start on terrestrial until tomorrow.
In between, took dog for a walk, and thought about solar. I did not take into account that we own the land rights at Lesedi and have the essential permission to work there. So if speed is of the essence and we are going to put up the transmission lines anyway - TLOU are on the right course.

Mudda fadda disregard my (earlier) letter.

Cheers Numpty, your final point struck a chord - site security - there would be a bonus in having a single system in operation and as you say or imply , perhaps we won't need to duplicate expensive kit and buildings if they can be shared at one site. TG will have worked out the costs no doubt, and come up with the lowest capex.

Seems unlikely, but maybe having CBM power available 24/7 for day to day operations on the solar fields (kettles, toasters, floodlights etc) would be better than buying power in or running them on diesel is the solar cannot be stored in batteries or however they do that.

One of the things I love about TLOU is you can go back several years to old announcements and with the exception of switching from providing CBM gas for sale to generating the electricity ourselves and supplying via the grid (the grid for the southern african subcontinent) everything is consistent. It is refreshing after the changes of heart , ever more expensive , we went through at Sirius. A simple potash mine became an additional miniature London underground leading to our own port miles away and our own fleet of ships. I must have been mad not to see the arrogance of their CEO. TG has kept it real throughout (apart maybe from solar which I hope will be explained if we have posters with knowledge of that industry and Botswana on here or advfn).

You're welcome Woody - there is almost too many sources of info on TLOU and you'll have realised I'd forgotten that joyful link MM provided yesterday.

I have posted on ADVFN in the last few minutes, voicing questions about solar - it may as well be here too - perhaps TLOU will reply to it - they have in the past in an indirect way.

e.g. TLOU used to talk about CBM power all the time. Several people on here understood we were going to sell gas itself as a result! I mentioned on here that they should be be referring to CBM powered electricity for clarity, and soon after that they started doing precisely that. There are other things they have acted upon too.
So my thoughts on our solar power .... FG is a poster on Advfn.
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I don't profess to know anything about Solar, FG.

But the whole subject surrounding TLOU is a bit mysterious.

I can see why we are planning to produce electricity from Lesedi, Mamba and Boomslang for the obvious reason that the mineral rights to our coal are a force majeur, leaving us with the unavoidable problem/costs of getting the power 100Km across country to Serowe.

There will be power losses over that 100Km which will reduce our income as well as the capex.

But why do we have to repeat that irritation for solar? We have solar farms in Dorset in farmer's fields, and abandoned paddocks - they can go anywhere where the sun is available.

So why plonk ours 100Km from the grid?
Why not find some waste land very close to the grid? Maybe at Serowe itself?
We could even have a very short distribution line on the Lesedi side of town. If it were 10KM from Serowe the target from Lesedi would only be 90Km if it was designed for both CBM and Solar to meet up there.

And why on earth are preferred bidders for CBM power being so feted by the govt?
Some posters suggest we will sub-contract the work ..... why don't the govt approach the organ grinders themselves instead of dealing with the monkeys?

Sorry, I just don't get it at all. A new RFP for solar ought to be started from scratch imho.

The power from Selemo is described as follows June 2017 ...

"The Cummins G8.3 generator can supply up to 60 kVA of power and has been customised to run on a small portion of the gas currently being produced at the Selemo pilot which would otherwise be flared. It is expected that the conversion of generation from diesel to gas will initially reduce the Company's diesel requirement by approximately 50,000 litres per year. These savings should grow with time given that a second gas to power generation unit is planned to be installed. "

https://www.investegate.co.uk/tlou-energy-ltd/rns/first-gas-to-power-generation/201706200700035403I/

Colm Cloonan interview the day before the RFP mark 1 was closed!
Sept 2017.

This followed the other link on my youtube, but I think that might have just been my youtube?

https://youtu.be/hFG0HQ1MVfg

Woody, I posted this for a guy on another chatroom, thought you might like it.

Very nice history lesson.
Cherrylady
25 Apr '20 - 08:38 - 8404 of 8404
My search engine turfed out this link from 2017 - I searched 250 pages to produce 31 hits!

Selemo had just been used to start power production on site, not for the grid , and the RFP was still to be concluded before the eruption after the govt mistake was found to make it worthless.

Around the 4 minute mark Tony refers to to the RPF being a few months away from acceptance , that was mark i!

Little did he know what was coming! But neither did anyone else.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02ARY1x8y08

I meant to thank you for the link , MM , which I do now.

Is it wishful thinking when I say Tony looks 10 years younger in that link?

So happy!

Have just been watching the news and the horror of Covid-19. Brought back my time in hospital when I had 4 blood transfusions and spent a few days in ICU.
Back on the ward the physios just wanted me to sit up on the side of the bed. I never got beyond swinging my legs out the bed.
The next think I knew there was a beautiful nurse face to face with me laid flat on my back.
Apparently, I'd stopped breathing for 90 seconds! I thought I was quite fit until then so it must be awful to have the virus and know the possibilities. God bless the NHS, I still have two legs and hopes of TLOU coming good. It could be very different.

Sincere apologies MM, I completely forgot about "jupiternmars" because proactive videos normally come from "parisle". I replied several times to the thread and can remember the references to the smirk which I thought was a bit rude, but it wasn't familiar tbh.
I'll post your link to the youtube equivalent for my search engine.
That post came out soon after I got my black eye from falling on a rum bottle - I guess I wasn't thinking straight at the time cos I only had sight in one eye. Still have whiplash in my neck from it, but have full vision if a bit blurry.

https://youtu.be/xGboxDXpncg

I am in Dorset, Woody, thanks for responding.
In the early days (pre-RFP) both Sekaname(K/E) and TLou were planning to produce gas pipe-lines or bottles and transport , but then the emphasis switched to CBM powered electricity which, thinking about it, could still be from Orapa which has 180Mw waiting for gas from the 2012 agreement with Kalahari? That is possibly still Sekaname's plan? They are a private company and don't publish progress like TLOU is obliged to.

I wonder if both companies are allowed to power Orapa?

I guess Mamba is playing second fiddle until funding is in lace and we'll hear then if it will feed electricty to Serowe through our generators or Orapa with gas for theirs to Seruli.

Do you have the virus? Good luck with it if you do.

Second thoughts, an RNS is in writing and is therefore more reliable.

Here are the bits that address the working relationships twixt Tlou and Botswana.

"the interim PPA now undergoing final regulatory formalities. The commercial terms of the agreement remain confidential. " ..... nothing there!

"BPC and MMGE continue to assess the 10MW proposal and will advise the Company in due course. " ... non-commital due course?

"Response to Prevailing Financial Market Conditions
The Covid-19 outbreak and the impact on financial markets is challenging for many companies including Tlou and the government of Botswana has declared a State of Emergency. It is difficult to predict just how long the impact of Covid-19 will last and the ultimate effect it may have on the Company.
Therefore, Tlou considers it to be prudent to significantly reduce overheads so that existing funds last longer and to enable the Company more time to conclude commercial and project finance negotiations. Cost reductions will remain in place for the foreseeable future, with further reductions possible if considered necessary at a later date." .... disruptive virus is clear!

"Increased sustained gas flow rates are anticipated to take some considerable time, based on the currently available data, unless additional wells are drilled to facilitate the dewatering process. A decision to drill additional wells is being considered but no decision has yet been made. " ... more indecision due to unknowns

"During the quarter, the Company proposed to shut-in one or possibly both of the production pods as sufficient data has now been gathered indicating the presence of potentially commercial gas in the coal seams. Shutting-in the wells reduces unnecessary expenditure and stops flaring of gas that could otherwise be converted to electricity " ... more indecision

"Forward plan
While on-the-ground access is restricted, the Company can constructively advance project finance and the 10MW PPA negotiations. " .... restricted? surely not? MM has TOLD us our workforce and the govt are functioning normally! MUST BE TRUE! NO OPTION! Negotiations, in fairness, look to be possible so there is evidence that govt is functioning to some degree. 1 Brownie point to MM.

Perhaps you can show you formed your strong opinion MM, and while you are at it, why is this line included in the Mamba section of the RNS? Perhaps you could ask Tony, next time he phones you?

"Geographically, the Mamba Project area is approximately 50 Km closer to the Orapa Power station than the Lesedi Project area."

I get abuse about talking off topic , but when I am on topic , hardly anybody has a view! I imagine I am in a care home when on this board .... anybody up for a game of bingo? TLOU has attracted a strange bunch of coconuts.

"Brad, that blog is from 2015/2016" - you'd have to be colour blind to miss that MM - it is a huge red banner at the top of my link. No brownie points from me.

As to the "company" - they have been quite vague as to the future, almost as if they are "UNCLEAR" what they'll be able to achieve in modern day Botswana.

They might close off one or both of #3 and #4 , dewatering might continue at #4 alone , they need to open up new pods to help dewater but can they ..... I did not see any definitive views on very much. I assume and presume but use imho in my posts ..... everything you write is stated as DEFINITE ..... I'll knock out a video of TG's latest points to see what he actually said to the rest of us. Perhaps you cannot remember what you heard in the podcast and what you heard in one of your private conversations with the man himself? Maybe Donald , Massisi or Boris's telephone calls to you referred to the operational aspects in Botswana when they called you. I appreciate the problem of dealing with so many men at the top. It must be very stressful.

MM I knew that but if there was a solar industry in those days, I assumed it had grown by today.

Horizon repeated part 1 of 2 about the virus last night. BBC at its best describing the recent history from bats to pangolins to a multitude of creatures at Wuhan market.
Bats are resilient to most viruses because their heart beat is so fast their body temperature rises very high which stops them suffering from the virus, but they are still carriers!
Pangolins are a much different story.

Lots of information some mathematical, but very clearly explained throughout! Oill give it foive, as Janice Nichol might have said years ago.

What is evident is how important a new vaccine is - but that should be obvious! Until then it only takes one person with Covid-19 in the world to start it all off again! USA and Sweden looked very worrying!

What is the source your opinion that "It is clear that all key decision makers on PPA, finance, permits and permissions remain either at their desks or are working remotely. "

With people being removed from their homes and being locked-up for not obeying the rules it does not compute really. Because they are the elected govt members, so I'd expect the civil servants to be treated even harsher? Providing the means of continuing with their work in such an environment does not seem likely? I cannot imagine govt depts being run from home tbh!

Imagine the filing system they'd need to correlate all the diverse paperwork ..... unless their computer system is more advanced than you'd expect? Unlikely?

John Brown chairman of BP, duplicated his files at home and in the office which was considered extraordinary! Imagine the whole of BP doing the same! It would be mind blowingly chaotic.

Hit send too early .... I spoke too soon ...

https://botswanaenergy.blogspot.com/p/solarcompanies-in-botswana-during-my.html

GG's presence in Botswana could prove invaluable to us for sure!
I still think international lockdown will endure beyond soon but if the engineers we need are local , I can see the sense in them being allowed to work because they will be no risk to anyone but themselves.

I cannot see a deal for solar coming before CBM is finalised on one or two PPA's unless Solar can be delivered locally which seems unlikely? There is scope to open a solar panels business in Botswana perhaps TG's next challenge?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z9WDsgCIroE

Soon? On the moon perhaps! A few politicians test negative and the rest of the world is cured?
Absolute ramp yet again!

================from the Guardian (UK) ===================================
Lockdowns can't end until Covid-19 vaccine found, study says

China’s restrictions have brought the first wave to an end but the danger of a second is very real

Countries wanting to end the lockdown and allow people to move about and work again will have to monitor closely for new infections and adjust the controls they have in place until there is a vaccine against Covid-19, according to a new study based on the Chinese experience.

China’s aggressive controls over daily life have brought the first wave of Covid-19 to an end, say researchers based in Hong Kong. But the danger of a second wave is very real.

“While these control measures appear to have reduced the number of infections to very low levels, without herd immunity against Covid-19, cases could easily resurge as businesses, factory operations, and schools gradually resume and increase social mixing, particularly given the increasing risk of imported cases from overseas as Covid-19 continues to spread globally,” says Prof Joseph T Wu from the University of Hong Kong, who co-led the research.

"Geographically, the Mamba Project area is approximately 50 Km closer to the Orapa Power station than the Lesedi Project area."

http://tlouenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Picture1.jpg

I asked this before ..... does it mean Mamba will feed Orapa by road (Py's bottles) or pipeline?
Lesedi will feed electricity to Serowe 100km away for sure , so would it make sense to link Mamba with Lesedi if it is only 50Km? Orapa looks much further away, but presumably the generators are raring to go once they sniff CBM? If they haven't rusted up waiting for Kalahari since 2012?

Py , I suspect that by the time the distribution nework and generators are in place, TLOU will be well placed to produce all 12 Mw. Tony is rightfully hopeful of getting gas flows going quickly once the initial dewatering is complete.
Given Botswana is recognised as largely desert, the presence of so much water has taken us all by surprise. All imho of course - I reserve KNOWING for things that are proven.

The anticipated PPA(s) are both for CBM power so solar will need a third one perhaps.
New documents were produced for CBM , instead of using the ones established for coal, that put us back a year or two, the same looks likely for solar?

ASX out of auction 7.9c thru 8.3c for starters.

This all started because I could not believe MM was suggesting lock-down in Botswana would end this April. He merely repeated that suggestion, and masked the lock-down of 6 months as some whim of the president doing a power grabbing exercise?

"MM, you aren't trying to minimise the problem in Botswana are you?
There isn't a snowball's chance in hell of the lock-down ending on 30th April"
- clearly struck a nerve! Of course he was hiding the true lock-down period.

Thanks for your support Chuk , it is nice to know one poster has some sense on here.

I've avoided LSE for a day or two because it has been so dead, and posted this on ADVFN - how this is interpretted as deramping I'll never know? I have supported TG forever, and Colm and GG since Autumn 2019 where their influence was becoming clear.

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Nugacity
21 Apr '20 - 14:51 - 8385 of 8395

ASX look happy enough - I wonder how many, so-called, established companies look sound for the next 3 quarters?

3 gets us beyond the planned govt shut-down of 6 months - and surely the interim PPA will be done in one quarter , far less 3.

ASX ALERT-Quarterly Cashflow Report-TOU.AX
hTTp://pdf.reuters.com/asxnews/asxnews.asp?i=43059c3bf0e37541&u=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20200415_nASX6r3tS3

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21 Apr '20 - 23:19 - 8388 of 8395
(Donk questioned how A$2m was so great?)

704k per quarter outgoings is as relevant a figure Donk.

If we had A$40m in the bank , we'd be worse off if we were spending A$20m per quarter!

TG has told us his plans keep us alive for 3 quarters - enough time to organise funding imho. There's a few oilers out there who'd love to have A$2m and only $704 per quarter outgoings and as few staff members to consider as we do!

Once the virus is under control - we'll be in our starting blocks ready to go!
Especially if #4 is dewatered in the meantime, still a possibility I think?

The oilers, and many other companies, will be trying to find out where their workers are living after losing their homes?

TLOU has so much going for it - if we'd been on the originally planned schedule , I am reticent to say we could now be in a worse state than we are now? But that is possibly true!

Every cloud has a silver lining they say.