Member Info for BradSmith

Didn't get much cashback on my credit card this month - so double edged deposit (I get cashback for credit card deposits).

Trade executed: Tlou Energy Limited (LSE),Buy 8572 Shares @ 2.8815 came to £250 exactly! IG minium deposit is £250 by credit card.

I suggest you go out into the streets and canvass the public's opinion with an arm around their neck?

Which bit of Coronavirus do you not get?

I'm done with your stupidity - oh! and once you catch it stop canvassing!

Chukkers, you are right yet again. I'm done reasoning with the fool he is too thick for words!

You are getting too tiresome Whizzer.

I quoted your post ,before the market had opened, that you were selling up , which I did not see until I'd read the RNS 2 hours later.
The RNS talked about flows fluctuating, which we all knew.
However it added a phrase that worried me "up AND DOWN" which I took to mean BELOW 20 MCFD! Horrorshow, I thought fluctuation was between 2 score and 4 or 5 score! Negative talk of timings on getting gas flows was even more frightening, and then the emphasis on SOLAR convinced me , still not fully awake, that we were dead in the water!

Thinking everybody would be selling up, I looked at the posts and saw yours! The rest is history!
Posts from you after I'd sold my FTSE holdings (on IG, I still had my IG ASX holding, and X-O holding, my major holding in my ISA) were totally irrelevant chum!

As to proof of flow rates, the Minister announced the interim PPA didn't he? It was subject to a few changes - I'm insisting that the main stumbling block is WHEN DOES IT START AND FINISH?

Isn't it obvious neither can be determined yet? We have to take delivery of a generator WHEN,?, and get engineers into the vicinity to install it WHEN? , take delivery of poles and wires WHEN? ,and get engineers into the vicinity to install them WHEN? And of course we need the funding which relies on THE PPA!!!!!!

CATCH 22? plus some! The Minister is willing to allow estimates for sure but until we have the freedom to restart this project in earnest we cannot estimate anything!

That is why May 21st and PM Masisi's verdict on the Lesedi area is so vital! Our Catch 22 is reversible due to Mr Moagi's response to TG's proposal. It is a marriage made in heaven , we just need Masisi's stairway!

We have the gas flow Whizzer!
That is what the interim PPA is all about.

It will be a PPA for whatever we can supply - that's what our board orchestrated and Mr Moagi agreed to.
TG is not at liberty to discuss with us what the agreement says and I still cannot see how on earth it can specify dates on there in the current climate. Hopefully May 21st will make the timings clearer!
Once the PPA is signed, we are told the funding will be available. It is such a simple concept, I despair that people cannot see the wood for the trees.

Would you pay in full for a flight to Australia today for whenever flights resume? That is what some of you expect TG to do!
It is totally illogical to pay in advance for an undeliverable item.

Did you enjoy reminiscing your sell up message Whizzer, or is your memory playing up again.

No wonder I am so anti-solar!
Forgot that was the main catalyst for my panic attack!
I really thought they were abandoning CBM for Solar from the RNS - and then saw Whizzers post- and thought the sp was heading for zero!

I'll always appreciate this post from NoEasy - it what message boards should be like imho.

=================
NoEasy
Posts: 1,971
Price: 4.05
No Opinion

RE: All quiet on the Eastern front Tuesday 21 Jan '20
Sirius Syndrome Brad not a panic attack would be my guess. There's 85,000 retail investors out there going through the same thing.

The take away for me from yesterday was there is no guarantee here but That TG is abiding by a strategy. He gave the reason we are moving slowly and it wasn't necessarily to do with coal fines etc although they will play a part. We have two wells on the go not a full field development which would probably have hammered the dewatering. Regardless of the risks here it is important to understand that forward shareholder value comes from a commercial flow attained under the two well scenario. Slower but we haven't given up a significant percentage of the company to move faster. It's a great strategy for us if we get the flows we want.

My history takes longer! Note the timings, 3.5 hours at most from selling up and buying back!
Less the £1k on Asiamet which I reclaimed and put it back into TLOU too!
Not as rosy as I remember on Asiamet - but I sold 21k shares in TLOU, and bought 28k back - so the result was ok!
============
BradSmith
Posted in: TLOU
Posts: 3,363
Price: 4.10
No Opinion
RE: Tlou 20 Jan 2020 10:11
Fully understand your position Whizzer , the RNS is exactly what you predicted and totally opposite to what I expected.
I wish you good luck and hope we get a share of that luck one of these days. USOP's chief was Irish and was not be trusted, I am running out of nationalities to believe in. How many stocks do I need to buy to find an honest one?
==========
BradSmith
Posted in: TLOU
Posts: 3,363
Price: 4.00
No Opinion
RE: Tlou 20 Jan 2020 13:20
Olda, I don't think the ship has a hole in it , far less sinking.
But I no longer expect it to be plain sailing within the timescale I envisaged.

Lesedi #3 and #4 are clearly not expected to flow by 31st Jan or they would have delayed the RNS beyond today.
So how long is it going to be? Will it ever flow properly?

If there was good news at Mamba, I feel it would have been the focus of the RNS but what did they do?
They drag in Solar! Boomslang being kept for future RNS I suppose?

It seems certain they will run out of money before Lesedi reaches operational flows so there will be a placing ( against everything TG wishes or has stated). Looking at the sp today I am encouraged that the price is 4p+. I sold one lot when it was in the 3.9s and I thought it was heading down 39 steps rather than up as it has? I got 4.07, 4.01 and 4.099 for my trades so not great.

I've put a grand into ARS and am up £7.99 on them. I'm expecting my broker to send me a greetings card to congratulate me on the change of colour.

My confidence in TLOU stemmed from my faith in TG. No faith no confidence. But those flows are still very possible and the price will treble if they do imho. I reserve my stake until there is evidence that Solar is not our future.
======================
BradSmith
Posted in: TLOU
Posts: 3,363
Price: 3.10
No Opinion

RE: TLOU - I bought more Monday 10 Feb 2020 12:27
Bit the bullet, sold my grand in Asiamet (time to buy now chaps for sure) for £875.
Remember they cost me 21k Tlou shares (that grand).
My anticipated reinvestment over the weekend was 28k Tlou based on the grand , and falling prices look dreadful but it has come out of the wash ok.

20/01/2020 ARS.L ASIAMET RESOURCES LTD USD0.01 Bought 42,893 1,000.00
10/02/2020 ARS.L ASIAMET RESOURCES LTD USD0.01 Sold 42,893 875.50
10/02/2020 TLOU.L TLOU ENERGY LIMITED ORD NPV (DI) Bought 27,693 875.51

So sorry you feel so desperate BTS, but glad you continue to have your sails ready for the trade winds.

Don't need to remember Whizzer!
Added you to my list of posters and searched using my software!

Whizzer

Posted in: TLOU

Posts: 293

Price: 4.75

No Opinion

Tlou Monday 20 Jan 2020 07:55
Brad you’ll be glad as I’m selling up after that rns, good luck to everyone who decides to see it out, but alarm bells are starting to ring for me!

OMG, what a morning!

Just put Jeremy Vine show on and they had a remote chess match in play, Vine versus a celebrity 2020 (unknown).
After two moves , Vine put her in check and she claimed it was mate!
After a laborious discussion he agreed! It looked lke rubbish anyway, he had 2 queens and she'd lost hers!
Resignation long overdue! But she had a black bishop to move between the queen and king!!!!!

Whizzer, I had a panic attack when I misread an RNS and then saw you had sold up (you hsdn't in fact) so I sold my UK holding (not my ASX) before Damo and others posted that little had changed! I reread the RNS and bought back in once I saw they were right! I woke up after 10am , so came to the party late and tried to catch up too impulsively.

I've never hidden what happened, but by midday I bought all £1k at a decent price. The £1k went into Asiamet for a short time but I sold them at a profit and bought TLOU - so I undeservedly came out of it quids in :O)

If we'd achieved PPA and funding last year before covid we'd have been chuffed.
The price would have multi-bagged and we'd have been optimistic.
I'm not sure whether that would been a better feeling once work stopped for covid.
Would the price have held up? We'd not have much to look forward to, unless further pods and poles/wires are possible in a partial lockdown.

We seem to have funds for 3 quarters (9 months) during which #4 is still being drained, hopefully enough time to get a PPA and funding sorted but no guarantees!

My hope is that May 21st clears the Lesedi to Serowe region lockdown enough for us to make progress on all fronts.
Why does my TV look rosy?

I'd like to see what you'd have to say , Whizzer , if they signed the PPA , took $30M funding from BDC , covid-19 took off and put Botswana into full lockdown for several years , and , by the time a vaccine restored the situation , we'd used a big portion of our $30M to make repayments on money we'd done nothing with!

Is that how you'd risk our future? If so, I'm glad we have TG in charge.

It would be nice to know where the lockdown plans are, but MM will never give us bad or even neutral news!
If the lorry driver incident is under control (seems likely) and the May 21st target is still a reality, we could be de-risked soon after another week of waiting. My IG account has gone from 1k up to 7k down , so I am not thrilled, BUT I cannot see what our bod could have done with the airy-fairy shareholders we have. An elephant fart is enough to make some of you sell your potentially valuable shares for a pittance.

Good to see you spreading your specialist knowledge and valuable research, MM.

You used the word "perhaps" earlier - a move in the right direction imho.

"From 21 May, the country will be divided into coronavirus zones and travel permits will be required to travel between these zones. " - all subject to no new cases .... whence all plans could become history.

Sounds like a delivery man from S.A. this time, so fingers crossed they'll know exactly whom he visited , but is he the only delivery driver in Botswana from S.A.?

Until you arrived I was probably considered a ramper of TLOU or very close to it!
Your binary view on life, turned me into a deramper in your tiny mind - lord knows what you think of the other posters!

Being considered a cretin by you is wonderful because I'd worry if you gave me the time of day (as you used to before I started countering your obvious ramping , and you are still doing it).

You did copy a news report but your subject line was that LOCKDOWN WAS OVER! A binary view poorly researched!

In the UK it is widely reported how lethal the virus is proving to black skinned people.
My view is that the poorer large families are more vulnerable due to simple arithmetic! Botswana could see a spread in a similar fashion if it takes hold.

I don't see the Govt offering an open house nationwide to Covid-19 any time soon .... in Wuhan, presumably, one chinaman caught it and now it is global.
If I am right and TLOU are not eager to get funding until lockdown is eased sufficiently for them to make good use of the cash - news of visitors from South Africa (elephants from Kruger?) bringing the virus into the country has to stop COMPLETELY. 10% of the population live in Gabarone - as Donk said, the Govt acted very quickly!
Probably because they are used to epidemics in Africa ( Cholera, measles, bubonic plague, zika, yellow fever,flu etc) and know the counter measures better than most.

I was told by you MM!

I never believed you then, and I certainly don't believe you now.
The only decent thing you have for TLOU is turning my Moriarty, Donk, into a voice of reason.
He said you are an extremist when I respcted you on here - but how times have changed!

You attitude to the pandemic got quite a few ticks - no wonder the virus is so virile!

https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/botswana/coronavirus

donkey40
12 May '20 - 13:04 - 8502 of 8503

Gaborone has been placed in immediate lockdown for at least 48 hours due to a confirmed covid person. A driver who entered from S Africa and was in contact with a number of folks in the Gabs area. Quite impressive how they actioned the lockdown so quickly imo.

Sadly I don’t see any reason why much progress on anything Tlou related will progress in the short term.

As usual, M/Minor has declared victory on emergence from lockdown far to early. Arguably Tlou should just mothball everything until 2021.

Here is the basis for a conversation with Damo .

=============
BradSmith
Posted in: TLOU
Posts: 3,354
Price: 2.45
No Opinion
RE: Bod Wednesday 04 Mar 2020 15:21
Nice post Damo but having looked back across you history I don't see a mention of 2 years grace.
Neither does it ring a bell. Do you mind explaining what it is please.
10 years seems common for loans , I'm hoping it is an industry standard that repayments are only made over the final 8 years.

======================

damo72
Posted in: TLOU
Posts: 70
Price: 2.45
No Opinion

RE: Bod Wednesday 04 Mar 2020 16:48
Brad, it was on a link that MM sent the other day.

https://www.journalducameroun.com/en/afdb-offers-botswana-line-of-credit-to-scale-up-investments/

"BDC is expected to on-lend to private sector players focusing on industrialization, including manufacturing, transport and service sectors that have significant development impact.

Repayment would be over 10 years, including a two-year grace period."

And before the ADVFN guys say there is no mention of CBM in the above, you ain't gonna have an industry with no power.
=================
damo72
Posted in: TLOU
Posts: 70
Price: 2.45
No Opinion
RE: Bod04 Mar 2020 14:38

The way I see it there are two options for the BoD. First one is to finance via dilution of shares. But a. they said they didn't want to do that and b. the share price is so low the company is currently worth less than they want to borrow. Preferred option is that they borrow from the BDC. TG said that they wanted commercial flow rates as that would allow them to borrow at a lower rate, but that they had to go with what they have got - which means borrowing at a higher rate. If they borrow at a higher rate they still have 2 years grace and a further 8 years to pay off the debt. All that higher rate does is to reduce the final value of the company. My guess is that they have been waiting for the 'last safe moment' to borrow as they would not want to borrow before they had to. As they could then get commercial flow rates and we'd all realise they borrowed too early in order to give the share price a short-term boost. If/when funding is in place then they have nothing to worry about. They can build the power station, put up pylons and even drill more wells if they need to and wait for flow rates to rise. TL:DR the company is solvent.

In terms of the share price, we'll likely get a short term boost on funding, interim PPA and final PPA - we may get pullbacks after the initial rush like we did after the initial tender award. Long term boost and climb will be based on flow rates as that gives analysts a way to value the company.

So, funding keeps Tlou solvent.
Flow rates gives the company a value.
A value allows larger organisations to invest.
Share price goes up.
Or something like that.

DTE, $10M will fund the poles and wires and 2MW if you believe what TLOU are saying. I do!

I also believe we'll get a 2 year period of grace (discussed on here a while back) before we start repaying the loan.
If, as I suspect, TG will defer taking the loan until he can use the cash - we should be comfortably operational at 2Mw within that 2 years. If that's all TLOU achieve 8 years to repay $10M means we need $1.25M per annum plus interest/capex from that 2Mw.

An extra $20M is claimed to be enough to supply 10Mw.

I'm optimistic they'll achieve more than 2Mw once dewatering is complete so I won't be adding my name to list.

Tony has always planned to spare us dilution - fingers crossed my faith is the only 'placement' I need worry about until expansion of power distribution, extra CBM wells and solar need funding.

It's always looked sensible to me, and the plans still have a chance even though there is a world pandemic. That is testament to our board imvho!

With your outlook on life, I am surprised you have time to worry about share prices Whizzer.

Ah, chukkers!
Once again, you have explained something for me.
I did the test after midnight, so my night-time colours will have kicked in.
Minesweeper is awful when that happens, 3's show up as a horrible shade of pink which makes it much harder for some reason.
The puzzles with colours will have been corrupted too! The Fawlty towers puzzles cost me dear because the size of the towers influenced my choices several times, to add to the colours! It was not clear how big the plot of land was - it would have been huge to change thesize of the buildings so much but the damage was done by the time I'd realised that.

Your percentage took into account the time you spent - 24/24 should have been perfect but came out 80%-90% - it has tovbe the time? The time diagram was worse that useless - it showed a scale above 24 which doesn't seem possible unless we both took the same time? We might have been timed out? Perhaps there 30 questions if you were quick enough?

I notice dots along one edge - is that what you call bushes? I might try it with daylight colours (bright) but I did not enjoy the test that much. I got bored with the face comparisons having been perfect for ages! I got lazy and clicked the mouse before it had reached my target several times near the end. But it may have been tiredness at 2:30 in the morning.

Nothing much to report on TLOU , the house shook while I was doing the test, so there was an earthquake or the elephants ran through my garden!

BBC intelligence test
https://www.cognitron.co.uk/account/consent?next=/ex/task/rs_s3_visualSearch

Got it back eventually and did not see anything about time.

My memory came out better than expected 24/24 on on the first run of words to remember, and 22/24 when they repeated it at the end without showing you the words again. Dead chuffed with that! Hopeless on remembering number sequence and the Fawlty towers 3-d rotation questions was dismal though I made it into the top 5% - 10% on the meanings of words. That surprised me!
They don't give an overall score just results for the 12 groups of different questions.

The personal questionnaire at the end seems to go on forever! Not sure if you have to do it to get your scores! They don't give feedback on that unless you give them permission to contact you.

Shut-eye time, knackered!

Pawpawman, just started the BBC intelligence test while I waited for the ASX auction to finish - and it died at the end of round 5!
Cannot get it restart - so I never saw your time question.

Is that what you were referring to?

ASX has opened with a 6.5c to 7c spread - no trades yet.