Member Info for Boyobach

According to conventional wisdom, H, gaps always get filled and they invariably do in my limited experience.
Of course, that particular gap presupposes that the price data for those days is accurate - I've seen anomalies with G open and close prices before now. Today would have been an ideal opportunity for a brief negative spike as the OP moved in the right direction.
Meanwhile, much as G’s firm price today against a falling OP is good to see, it was something of a correction for recent weakness and G remains as closely linked to the average OP as ever, as this twelve month chart from Peak Oil at $86 shows, with G, GKP and DNO as close as ever and not much below the majors over the 12 months:
https://invst.ly/k8m0e
It's fairly rare to see G pull ahead of GKP in this particular chart - it doesn't usually last long these days, so worth watching.

178
https://invst.ly/k16yd

Certainly at $50 WTI , LTO production is struggling.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-04/signs-of-shale-patch-slowdown-found-even-on-the-west-texas-wind

The fact remains, of course, that at $60 WTI (Brent up to $70) the idle rigs will be back in action

Yes H, but a word of caution - it is 'growth' that may be falling, not production.

Shale production has been getting more efficient in terms of manpower so job/rig cuts do not necessarily translate into loss of bbls. The same article also says: ' [WTI} oil futures for November 2020 are at just $50 per barrel, which is an indication that the market thinks things will only get worse next year.

Here's an article gives a lot of well informed information about expected future production from the Permian (link below) here’s the Conclusion:

It is important to note that the Permian oil production will continue to grow for many years to come as the super majors such as Exxon and Chevron continue to invest heavily in the basin and as the fracking pace in the field continues to break records. However, the warnings raised by the many experts and professionals highlighted in this article are clear: Permian productivity and growth are slowing down already and will be slowing materially in the coming years. A slowdown in a single oil field in a single country may not seem material to some, but when one learns that the US has been the source of almost 100% of the growth in non-OPEC production since 2015 and that the lionshare of that growth is coming from the Permian, a material slowdown in the Permian will have a disproportionate impact on global oil prices in the upcoming decade.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Permian-Slowdown-Could-Start-In-202021020.html

FC Title Holder - 180
Boyo 186
Withoutt 190
Hawkey 200
Wolfbag 202

Well done bunks! Let's hope this marks the start of an upward swing for G!

To be fair Klassic, Ocelot pointed out that I was overreacting - the article was from two months ago and Bill was sticking to the number quoted well before that. However I would expect the number for this year to now be firming up at a higher level based on an average OP of nearer $60. Leem's sense of disappointment is obviously contagious! ATB

Yes H - it comes to something when the competition is so fierce that people resort to sabotaging oil tankers to tip the odds.....

Nothing going on H - GKP is still marginally ahead of GNL from just before the strikes on KSA and since OP peaked at $86 a year ago. It's just the usual balancing out. At least G has recovered a bit from the last few weeks - still a bit weaker than it was around mid September.
https://invst.ly/jb2xc

Brent is back to the pre-KSA attack level this morning and G is recovering but still 5% down in comparison: should be about 190.
https://invst.ly/j7c90
Other oil co's are generally down too over the period.

Quite correct Ocelot - it just seemed an unnecessarily conservative statement although to be fair, the article is two months old. I'd expect them to have a firmer number now that we are into Q4.

It's also interesting (alarming) that, from this article: '[Bill Higgs] said free cash flow for this year should be in excess of $100 million with oil at $60 a barrel LCoc1, compared with Genel’s previous guidance of $100 million at $45 a barrel.'
I should effing well hope so!
Does this mean that $15 (33%) uplift in OP makes F all (little significant) difference to G's cash flow? I hope DHC is reading this.

Nice article Hawkey, I'm looking forward to confirmation, in the next month or so from G , of their belief that:
'Bina Bawi oil to also add to our production in 2020'

I can see immediately from a G v 3xBrent chart https://invst.ly/j0ntj when G (red) is underperforming against OP (green). So I know instantly that the price is lower than it should be - even by today’s ‘cheap’ pricing. So the dilemma is: do I want to win the FC competition for the third week in a row with a characteristically ‘low-ball’ entry or do I want G to be priced at a more representative value? There’s no doubt that bunks has the more appropriate level relative to OP based on recent performance and I also want my shareholding to be performing!

Bina Bawi and Miran are where the prize is as far as the market is concerned.

Yeah! You and me both Leem - and probably other PI's here. I know others on this BB are not too impressed with some of your comments but, frankly, I share a great deal of your frustration. G did set us up - by suggesting a resource that was imminently ripe for development and then failed to deliver. I don't think it was a deliberate ploy - but I'm not entirely without doubt.

That's the point Leem - there's no real mystery about why the sp fell back rapidly from near £3 last year, remains 'low' against that price level and is tightly range-bound by the prevailing OP. We need the forthcoming update to be a good one but we can be pretty certain that Bina B won't be the star of the show, which is what the market has thought for over twelve months.

Quite! doesn't sound imminent .

As Hawkey recently said, we get very mixed messages about US Shale - more correctly Light Tight Oil (LTO). I recently posted an oilprice.com link in which Rystad talk about US Shale supply not peaking until around 2030. Here is a contrary view point,
https://www.oilystuffblog.com/single-post/2019/09/08/Cartoon-Of-the-Week
which suggests well decline rates are ‘staggering’ points out that LTO is produced at high borrowing levels, is unsuitable for US Refineries and therefore must be exported and is wasteful of gas which is currently flared. The article concludes with this:
‘It will take two more decades to completely transition away from fossil fuels; we are the largest consumer of oil and condensate in the world, we're going to need every drop we have in this country before it's all over.
America's oil needs to stay IN America.’

This link within the article:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Weakening-Shale-Productivity-VERY-Bullish-For-Oil-Prices.html

Contra view from Rystad Energy:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Rystad-US-Shale-Production-To-Peak-At-145-Million-Bpd.html#

Not too shabby indeed Hawkey…

As Malcy wrote this week, although he noticeably played down any thoughts of an immediate Bina Bawi development and Miran is no longer mentioned:

‘Those of us fortunate to be with Genel in Kurdistan last week will be aware of quite how much the company is gearing up growth from its existing portfolio, with significant high margin production from both Tawke and Taq Taq as well as significant potential from Sarta within twelve months and also both gas and oil from Bina Bawi in coming years.’