Member Info for Boyobach

to the west of Cardiff, Withoutt, but not as far west as my roots.

Trump's behaviour is a disgrace.
In this case it also exposes the EU for what it is - which isn't much better

As I happened to be just reading it, Withoutt - Malcy explains about the fund in his Bucket List updates:
https://www.malcysblog.com/the-bucket-list/

Interesting you mention his Bucket List, DHC. Although being an embarrassment for Malcy when Taq Taq almost turned to dust, Genel has been back on his list for over a year now. In August Malcy made this comment in his half year update:
'Genel Energy is a stock that should be a great deal higher, with its massive cash flows enabling ongoing capex in organic development and competing for assets in the market as well as now paying a dividend and buying back stock in the market sometimes I wonder about what companies have to do to get institutions to participate. Genel is a high margin, large producer and extremely well managed and has significant upside, what’s not to like?'

Yes - cheers CCC. I'd forgotten to check Malcy's blog today despite anticipating comments about his KRI trip.
This bit was interesting ... 'an excellent environment to reward reinvestment of significant cash flows.'
It does seem to imply that they are not really looking elsewhere geographically.

OP drives G almost totally these days, bunks, but, as you often point out, G often lags behind especially when OP is moving positively. Frustrating to see G slip behind last Thursday (ie the 3rd on this chart) and remain behind even as Brent lifts today.
https://invst.ly/i4asv

Some quotes from this article on OP today (link to full text below)
Commodities Week Ahead: Oil Rudderless, Range-Bound:

“The rapid return to full production in Saudi Arabia has moved market participants’ focus back to the potential for a slowdown of the global economy and, thus, a slowing in global oil demand growth.”

“Crude oil is now trading below the pre-(Saudi) attack level, while refined products are slightly above.”

Under current market conditions, WTI at below $50 doesn’t appear sustainable yet, even if there’s another huge weekly build in crude stockpiles reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. So a range between $51.80 and $53.80 is likely this week.
U.K. Brent oil settled at $58.37 on Friday. Similarly, it could trade in a $2 range, at between $57.50 and $59.50.

https://uk.investing.com/analysis/commodities-week-ahead-oil-rudderless-rangebound-gold-eyes-another-fed-cut-200433247

This appears to be a good appointment, bodes well for Genel.

According to Rystad Energy: US shale supply will peak at approximately 14.5 million barrels per day (bpd) around 2030.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Rystad-US-Shale-Production-To-Peak-At-145-Million-Bpd.html#

H said: ‘in the main [oil] simply cannot be produced at the current price and make the producers/countries the money that is needed……
Reuters Headline says:
U.S. shale oil output to rise to record 8.8 million bpd in October: EIA
‘Even though the number of rigs drilling new wells in both the Permian and Bakken has declined since the start of the year, output has increased in both basins because the productivity of those rigs - the amount of oil new wells produce per rig - has increased to record levels. ‘ ( https://tinyurl.com/yyblfsst )
Unfortunately producing countries' and companies' answer to generating sufficient cash (even in the face of excessive debt) is the self-defeating one of producing more from their dwindling resources. Whilst we know that this is unsustainable - I utterly agree with you and Hasiba about that - the fact is that the impending shortage is some way off. It certainly isn’t close enough to influence next week’s FC outcome. US Tight Oil is going to be a factor going into the middle of the next decade, by which time you probably won’t be able to buy a fossil fuel car in the EU, even if you wanted to.

Boyo 174
Bunks 185
Broadland 188
Withoutt 190
Wolfbag 191
DHC 192
Hasiba 195
Hawkey 198
ocelot 210

Yes bunks - it’s quite depressing to win on low price expectations. Broadland wuz robbed, btw.
My formula last week was simple - guess the OP and multiply by 3. This week I’m going for 174 which, again, has little to do with anything I think is within G’s control.
Many folks here regard G as ‘cheap’ but my view is that it is Oil that is cheap and, regrettably for a valuable resource that should be used with much more care by humanity, it could become even cheaper as countries and companies (including KRG and G) simply pump more to maintain revenue. In the US there are producers pumping furiously just to service debt. It’s madness. The result is that there’s too much of the stuff and it may consequently remain a relatively poor investment until that factor eventually feeds through to reduced exploration and supply.

Hopefully, as majors replace cash-strapped independents in the US Shale patch, supply from that area may become better controlled so that good net returns are generated from more conservative levels of production. Meanwhile, perhaps I should move my cash into premium bonds…..

Ha! It may well go higher bunks (though I doubt anytime soon) but if you are contemplating buying G then you'd primarily be interested in whether it might go lower. Yes, it could bounce off that trend line or - more likely IMV, continue down to the next.
All the 'news' driven indications suggest the odds are in favour of it heading lower. The chart (which for Oil is notoriously subject to quick changes of direction) suggests that it might settle in the $57-$62 region but that anything down to $42 is quite possible with $30 ( remember Jan 2016?) not entirely impossible, albeit for a very short time .

H: Wish I could but no funds until Nov.....
Just as well H. Do you never wait and see?
What is it about OP News and this chart https://invst.ly/glmkd that makes you think Brent definitely won't go any lower this winter?

Let’s hope this morning’s weakness in OP is just part of an overshoot as the price normalises after the recent spike. Sub $57 would not be good at this time of year as it would be indicative of worse to come. https://invst.ly/gcmd3
G has responded accordingly and similarly to RDS

Worth a comment today - a good day for G which is back up to near 3.2x OP - like it was prior to the attacks on the KSA infrastructure. So a good positive gap between the red and green price lines here:
https://invst.ly/g4foz
GKP falling in line with the other Kurdies today:
https://invst.ly/g4dob

3rdOctober marks One Year since OP peaked at $86.
https://invst.ly/g42hd
All the oil cos in the chart are down since then but, whilst Brent has fallen 33%,
the Kurdies are all a tad stronger v OP at roughly 25% down (GKP 23%, G 26%, DNO 27%). Big Oil RDS is only 15% down and BP 18%.
PMO, for those that are interested, is 47% down. Ouch!

There’s actually nothing much in it between G & GKP over the 12 months and both obey pretty simple rules regarding sp v OP - as does RDS, although the equation there is slightly more complicated and, at first glance, seems to follow a pattern like ($OP+100)x15 = RDS sp

So, stating the obvious: no matter how big the company, if it is in the oil game its long term average sp has a relationship with it which only changes slowly over time or if something fundamental happens…...

Whatever the current 'story' is,
Oil= $60
G= 180p +
sp situation= Normal

OP following the playbook at the moment - will it settle around $59/$60 which it will be testing soon? And if so, can it hold it for the next quarter? https://invst.ly/f7aeq
G managing to hold the 3x ratio too - firming up since Friday - so at least a positive sign there.

'We' can't do anything - that's the company's job.
Bina Bawi is the elephant in the room - is it a big white one?
Is it going to earn revenue or be another write down? The market is, at best, on the fence about that.
Does G need cash to make it happen and , if so, how much?
Investors have already lost over £2bn (277m shares x £8) in value - maybe they'll stump up if they have a clear and low-risk path to making that good, or at least a fair proportion of it. Ha! I wonder if Tony and Nat could be asked to contribute.
G needs to sort out the assets it has before chucking the little that remains of our original cash down another hole.

Hawkey 209
Boyo 177