Member Info for Boyobach

This will test Trump's limitations, Leem. A tweet cannot change the physical (real as opposed to virtual) amount of crude available locally and globally. Ultimately it is the physical and timely availability of oil that determines its value - this is where it differs from gold, for example, which is a rare but relatively unnecessary commodity as far as basic human needs and consumption is concerned.
When you need to get from a to b, turn on a light, heat your home or manufacture something then gold isn't especially useful or essential - so its true value is never really tested. OIl is different: refiners need a constant supply of the stuff and plant won't run on Presidential tweets, virtual inventories and speculation. Fun weeks ahead, I think!

Bloomberg says:
Oil analysts expect prices to jump at least $5 to $10 a barrel Monday after a strike on a key facility cut Saudi Arabia’s production by half, pulling some 5% of world supply off the market.

That should be 15p to 30p - on the G sp.

https://uk.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-may-jump-as-much-as-10-a-barrel-after-saudi-arabia-attack-1962687

Wolfbag2 194
Dodger777 196
Klassic 200
Broadland 203
Stockbuster 205
bunks 207
Hawkey 211
Hasiba 213
Workover 215
Withoutt 220
Boyo 225
ocelot 350

I'm partially with Hasiba and partially with Hawkey on this. But I have a minimum profit target based on 230p at present - so I certainly won't be selling at less than that within the next 48 hours. Ha! looking to adjust my stop losses, aka 'profit locks', upwards - setting a minimum at 220 - AFTER I see how the market moves tomorrow. The price is inevitably due to move upwards tomorrow but by how much and for how long is anyone's guess. I like Ocelot's FC entry - good strategy but Witthout has, for me, the most logical number - I'll be going for 225 as a 'pre-market' spoiler. ATB to all G holders - it could be a good week.

There could well be three obvious phases in the market reaction to the KSA facility attacks: an initial over-reaction, a correction and a longer term averaging out. A cynical person would surely observe that the Saudi desire for $100+ OP was not remotely achievable unless an event of this sort occurred.

OP rarely shifts by more than $10 in a week and the effect of the attacks on crude supplies could prove relatively quick to fix, especially as OPEC+ countries will presumably cease to apply their restriction quotas and US producers can quite quickly ramp up production to take advantage of any price increase. Nevertheless, it’s impossible to gauge where the market will initially land when trading in Brent resumes after the weekend break, the near term price at which it will settle and the speed with which it will do so.

If the effect on Brent is indeed significant then the mid $80s - near $86 - for Brent would fit two-year trends etc and feels realistic to me as a top-end price: https://invst.ly/c9yl5
This could put G at around 270p based upon last week’s 3.2x ratio. Not too shabby, as H might say.

How quick and sustained will any rise be? Even if you don’t intend trading, this could be a week for adjusting stop-losses, which, if the sp moves up sharply, might more appropriately be termed ‘lock-profits’.

Finally, yet another apology from me for Friday's sloppy 'end of week' post: My ‘off the cuff’ comment 'What’s the best sp of the last 18 months? £3 at $86 Brent?.' was inexcusably inaccurate as £3 was never a closing price and $86 didn’t coincide with it - memory fail!. The 290p close at $74.65 (7/8/18) would probably have been last year’s best achieved G:OP closing ratio of 3.88x. Just imagine if 3.88x was repeated with an OP of $100 !!!! Ha! I’ll just dream on!

Apologies -in my haste a technical hitch with the G v3x Brent chart and 3xBrent in the wrong place:
https://invst.ly/c8z6m

Well done Dodger!

OP volatility this week should not obscure the fact that G has had a good week with the G:OP ratio exceeding 3.2x for some of the time from little better than 3x a week ago - that’s worth 12p on the sp at the current level of Brent. What’s the best sp of the last 18 months? £3 at $86 Brent? That ratio was 3.48x, the recent worst was below 2.7x in May- so G has climbed over half way there in four months. Let’s hope it keeps going even if the OP remains quite weak.

This is the week that was for the KRI trio: https://invst.ly/c8y-9 and here’s G’s progress of recent times - note how it has progressively moved above the 3x Brent line:
https://invst.ly/c8yxl

correct bunks!
It really isn't rocket science.
But G's sp could surely use a rocket.

We certainly get mixed messages about OP and the effect of US Shale production upon it. Here's a bullish POV:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Shale-Slowdown-Could-Trigger-Major-New-Oil-Price-Rally.html

Quite a roller-coaster so far this week. The KSA and Opec+ seemed keen to talk OP up (the $100 oil fantasy) in the face of their own forecasts and the oncoming winter season, which can herald weaker OP at the best of times. Not a time I’d ordinarily be thinking of topping-up in G or other oil-related stocks without good reason. It’s ‘wait and see’ time for me, especially after the experience of last autumn. Happy to hold, however, with a better safety margin in terms of book cost per share this time round. Winter volatility will hopefully create some trading opportunities again.

With LCO at 59.1 and G at 190 the ratio was 3.2x at the close - possibly the strongest it’s been for a couple of months. Just two weeks ago that OP would have matched up with G at 180. Here are the last five days, which show G hanging on at the re-base 0% line whilst all the others, including Brent have moved down: https://invst.ly/c85yg

The chartists view doesn’t look too clever to me - but I’m not a Bollinger reader. The long upward tails on the candles suggest to me that the last two days have tested the higher ground without success and today’s close that G may not cling onto that red trend line: https://invst.ly/c861i

This is how the rest of the pack are doing (rebased from April Peak OP):
https://invst.ly/c86n7
It’s quite interesting to note that there’s virtually nothing separating G and GKP over either this period or the rebase to last October Peak OP. So, if you find G disappointing then, logically, you’d find GKP equally so - unless you were very lucky/astute with your ‘buy’ points.

The KRG will surely have to accept their share of any cut quotas. Whether they'll accept that and how it will be divided across the IOC's is anyone's guess. The best outcome is if the increased OP more than compensates for the loss of volume and G gets to keep more in the ground for when the price is right.... in five to ten year's time maybe.
Meanwhile the G:OP ratio has climbed so far today to 3.22x, as OP has dropped faster than G. How sustainable will that be I wonder? I'm now quite glad I offloaded a few earlier in the week - had started to think it was premature when the price pushed up through 194 but it's now more in line with what the oil industry has been saying for quite a while. US oil exports have breathed life into the Permian boys' hopes and balance sheets and will kill any notion of $100 OP.

Well it all went TU afterwards didn't it bunks?
I hadn't really expected to see the price pass 197, so 200 looked surprisingly healthy given that OP had been falling back since the previous day. It was probably Hawkey who kept G's price up! (Ha!).
Anyway - if OP really is back under the cosh it'll be back to normal tomorrow and 3x OP (LCO) or even less.

It may seem disappointing that the sp fell back by today’s close but, nevertheless, the G:OP ratio is currently ‘up’ and stands at 3.19, putting the sp at nearly 12p above the 3xBrent figure. Although the sp is much lower than we'd like, September has been a good month for G and today’s closing G:OP ratio was better than at the end of April when OP was at $73 and G was 231p - a ratio of 3.16. It’s a welcome reason to be cheerful when news sources later today were generally pointing to a weakening outlook for OP: https://invst.ly/c75tm
Here are the last five days with DNO reinstated: https://invst.ly/c75tj
It looks a bit odd because of the anomaly in DNO last Thursday (maybe a big after- hours trade?). Whatever the reason, DNO is certainly making a comeback and regaining its position amongst the runners since last October’s peak OP:
https://invst.ly/c769g

All the oil companies here, except PMO, are now bunching back together and, rather importantly nearly twelve months on, are above Brent by 7-15% - indicating a general strengthening of their respective sps.

Excellent and encouraging presentation on a good day in the market so far. The 200p high is a strong signal.

Politicians can fix anything when mutual interests are best served.

Thanks Ocelot - I don't follow GKP closely so that was useful info for me. From a purely chart based view, I felt GKP was running ahead of G rather too much unless there was a really good reason. This is not a criticism of GKP - I'm considering a split in my KRI related investment, which is exclusively G at present. Much appreciated!

Who would have thought a year ago - when G was around 220 - that 196 would be regarded as good. It isn’t, of course, but by recent standards the last week has been the best for a while. It is however, a sobering thought to realise that, over the last four years, G rarely gets better than this in relation to OP - with July-August of 2018 and March-April of this year being the only real highlights: https://invst.ly/c6n6r The dashed line represents 3x$63 Brent - so where the green trace touches or crosses it you can check how G was doing on that day.

Let’s zoom-in on the latest part of that: https://invst.ly/c6n9m
And also a slightly different take with the Bollinger Bands thrown in: https://invst.ly/c6n9-

The nub of the last two is that G might well keep going. It has been known to stumble near 199, and 203 has always presented something of a barrier, but the trend indicates 210 as a possibility if you are of a highly optimistic temperament - but it will need a fair wind and an equally fair OP.

Here’s the last five days: https://invst.ly/c6ndb DNO somewhat resurgent and technically off the chart at about +12% over the week. G tracking Brent rather than blazing ahead of it. GKP stumbling a bit today but perhaps it had got rather too far ahead. Here are the five since April’s peak OP: https://invst.ly/c6ng3 RDS remains the class act for participating in Oil and Gas without all the drama of the other four.

Interesting today to see a cool reception to GKP’s half year. They also announced the final phase of their share buybacks - a smaller spend over a longer timeframe, so potentially having a less noticeable effect on the sp. On fundamentals GKP’s followers regard the shares as cheap - rather as G fans do here - but the market has a different view. GKP’s multiple to OP has nominally been about 3.5x but it has recently hit as high as 4.3x in August, when it did look a bit toppy. It’s back to 3.7x today. Because GKP is a known and steady producer with one plentiful resource, you’d expect GKP’s sp to consequently be a fairly constant multiple of OP. There should be few other surprises there.

For those who look for opportunities to switch between G and GKP - or any of the five featured - the comparison chart from last October’s peak OP indicates when it would have been a good move: https://invst.ly/c6g7b .

For a given producer, a price increase of around 66% ($60 to $100) would have nil net effect on revenue if volume were to fall by 40% as a consequence. So the big question is what sort of OPEC - wide production cut is envisaged? Plainly it must be less than 40% - bearing in mind that KSA already appears to be around 17% down from max capacity. And that figure doesn't factor-in all the non-OPEC producers that will pump like crazy to fill the supply gap at $100 /bbl. It would certainly rescue some US shale drillers who court insolvency and would swiftly see a lot of DUC wells be completed for production.
As fast as KSA and OPEC cuts production and WTI moves over $60 there'll be a massive increase in non-OPEC production to make money whilst the sun shines. $100 oil would undoubtedly precipitate another OP crash IMO

Well at least OP was up but, to be frank, G is not responding to it with any particular vigour - the market remains quite unimpressed with G, it seems. The handy score calculation puts G at a measly 3 above 3x Brent - pretty poor but not disastrous (workings below).

Here’s the last five days - DNO hidden for the time being because an anomaly on Thursday messes the scale up - suffice to say that DNO is at about the +5% level, 12.7 Kr.
https://invst.ly/c66hu

Brent is, as I said at the start, showing some promise and might just break upwards for a while:
https://invst.ly/c66gj

All the runners since oil peaked in late April: https://invst.ly/c66jk

For me it was a de-risk day - sold off just under 15% for a nice but smaller than hoped for profit. With OP rising there’s a reasonable chance it will track it further but I’m not anticipating much over 194 unless OP lifts strongly and I was keen to offload some at a profit before a potential autumn drop, or fall fall.

G’s sp, rounded = 192 = A
Brent, rounded = $63, x3 = 189 = B
A-B = the score = 3