Member Info for Boyobach

I wouldn't stress too much about watching OP every day - within a couple of $ of $60 is neither here nor there: it's not going to change G's long term position or sp by more than about 6p whilst $5 would start to be of interest.
About GKP being ahead - I would just say that since Friday G and DNO have actually played catch-up after dropping back on Friday, despite no buybacks at G.
https://invst.ly/btuyp
However, I wouldn't read too much into that - it's just swings and roundabouts on different days.
For now at least, G seems to be pretty much settled in the range of about 180p -220p for oil between $60 and $70, nominally £2 at $65, give or take a few p. The second set of buybacks have so far, rather disappointingly, only restored G to where it was in relation to OP when the first phase completed. However. there's still some powder left - over half the original budget I reckon - which hopefully might yet add 10p to those numbers. But I'm not counting on anything special until there's some news on Bina or the Chevron fields.

A totally average day as far as I can see, hopefully no buybacks given the lack of any gain. GKP's buybacks may also have paused.

Here are the last five days G/GKP/DNO v Brent: https://invst.ly/bttsf

G:OP at close = 3.05x

….and all the runners since buybacks started: https://invst.ly/bttty

Runners and Riders since October 2018 Peak Oil: https://invst.ly/bttus

Here are the last five days G/GKP/DNO v Brent: https://invst.ly/bt513

With OP staggering along below $60 for about a fortnight now and no real sign of it moving back up to the $65 level, G is not generating much interest and is unlikely to see much above 183p unless the bb programme removes all the sellers at this level. It was hard to tell if bbs resumed today as G was similarly up with DNO (some relief there) but it has steadily improved in strength v OP during the day, so perhaps bbs did restart, although no RNS as yet.

New ‘Benchmark Chart’
Over the weekend I posted a chart that rebased G against OP prior to the first Taq Taq write-down back in late February 2016. I suggested that this might tell us all we need to know about G’s performance v OP: if the sp is above Brent’s green line then it will give a proportionately positive indication etc etc. Importantly, the green Brent lines LCO (light) and NY Crude (dark) accurately represent G’s ‘3x‘ relationship with OP and consequently provide a very precise good/bad reference marker. Here’s the same chart ‘zoomed-in’ to the last 10 months, clearly identifying the good and poor periods of performance irrespective of the prevailing sp and OP: https://invst.ly/bt4mm

And a closer view for the last few days: the green end candle standing above Brent indicating a better day than some of late: https://invst.ly/bt5lj As a guide, G would need to be back up to 192 at $60 Brent in order for performance to match the end of the last phase of buybacks - so some way to go..

25th June: G starts Buybacks, employing Canaccord…..
A fortnight later, just after the buybacks pause:
9th July, Canaccord moves G from ‘speculative buy’ to ‘buy’ and declares G a ‘top pick’ with target sp 310.
I wonder what OP they based that on….. $100 maybe?
(source of info: G on Twitter)

I'll extend the arithmetical series (should bunks be disqualified Ocelot?):
boyo 175
Withoutt 180
Bunks 183
Stockbuster 185
Hawkey 190
ocelot 195
Hasiba 200
Broadland 205

Hawkey, mate , can I just say in response to:
'I’m up to my neck in Genel ,,,,,but I’d love to have some answers........'
You should not be 'up to your neck' in something where you have these kind of questions.
'If you were KRG would you let a tin pot company play with huge gas field.'
If you think G is tin-pot why are you invested in it?
'Is Taq Taq a busted flush?'
Taq Taq was a busted flush - in relative terms - when it was written down for the second time two years ago. It limps on as a much reduced asset from when it was touted as a 100k+ bopd producer by Wayward and co eight years ago.
'Is Tawke running dry?' - All oil resources run dry. It's just a matter of how quickly.
'Why did Chevron allow us into potentially billion dollar assets?'
Because they are potential - is oil flowing yet?

Here’s a chart that gives as much information about G’s relative performance v OP as you are likely to need for some time and might even save a lot of effort theorising:
https://invst.ly/bshtd

It begins back in 2016 when the extent of Taq Taq’s demise from a 100k bpd resource was first becoming apparent (a second write down was to follow a year later). The broken orange vertical marks the plunge as G fell below 100p (literally decimated from the original £10) in late Feb.

Why is this particular chart of any use today?

Well, the main thing to note is G’s relationship with Brent (the Green trace). You’ll easily see that it is remarkably similar - if not identical - to today. In fact, when the green Brent line coincides with G’s sp (for example if G reaches 258 when Brent= $86 as per the top green horizontal) then the ‘magic ratio’ of 3x applies exactly. Also, quite obviously, wherever G is above the green Brent trace in this chart it is doing better and where it falls below then it is doing worse than it was as Taq Taq faded from prominence. Furthermore, the usual red trend lines that indicate G’s long term progress are effectively those of Brent. G moves up or down between them either with Brent itself or if G independently undergoes a significant change in the 3x relationship - a fairly rare occurrence. It last happened in May of this year, prior to the buybacks, when the ratio dropped as low as 2.7x .

So this chart is an instant guide to G’s health and relative strength as measured by the 3x ratio - which has acted as a benchmark for more than three years since Taq Taq’s fall from grace.

It may be a sobering thought for some to realise that G’s market value is much more consistent with Brent than they might have supposed and that last summer’s peak was merely a combination of strong OP and premature euphoria about the long anticipated resources at Miran and Bina Bawi causing the ratio to peak at over 3.6x . When it became apparent that Bina Bawi was not imminent, the sp sharply resumed its more established relationship with Brent, which still prevails today.

Hi Justin
The RNS announcing resumption of the BB process stated it would run up to and including 17th September. There's no stated requirement for it to run continuously, or indeed for any particular purchase method to be employed- although you'd hope that some sort of strategy is used to make the process as beneficial to the company and shareholders as possible. The reason for the buyback is ostensibly to reduce capital in a value acretive way - which, to me, would mean buying shares at the best achievable prices leading to a sustainable price uplift. Postponing any purchase until after 'good news' and a rise in sp would not fit with that intention.

My point was, really, that there probably isn't a clever strategy or anything sophisticated about the process - that it simply chunters on day to day hoovering up shares within certain regulated or planned volume limits. There was obviously no attempt to continue buying when the price fell to more attractive levels on Thursday/Friday, even though over half the budget appears to remain. So, in the absence of any obvious strategy, it seems entirely plausible that the pause is simply due to something as mundane as folks being off on leave. This second phase of bbs has come just as OP hits a seven month low - which is good from a 'value acretive' POV provided they don't miss out on the lowest lows (like Thursday Friday maybe?)

what 's people's thoughts on existing IIS shuffling their stake from G to GKP?.....

I've thought that it may have happened on certain occasions, Oilheadgame, and there are times when you can see (invariably with hindsight) that there were some profitable opportunities in both directions. It would ordinarily involve selling from one that is a bit 'toppy' and going into the other whilst it's a bit low. Switching from G to GKP after the first G buyback phase, especially when G peaked at around 203 would certainly have been a good move. I daresay there are some that will have done that. But at the moment I'd be wary of moving from G (especially if it's at a loss) to GKP (potentially a bit high, although clearly with scope to continue during their buyback programme) Moving from GKP , on the other hand, looks like it could be premature - ie it may have more to go - whilst G seems to be stalled. Given their volatility, I don't think it's for the faint hearted.

I was quite intrigued to notice that G’s buybacks ceased abruptly, late on Wednesday morning with only about a quarter of the usual daily volume of shares purchased and without completing the day, as if someone knocked-off early for lunch and, indeed, the weekend. The circumstances do suggest to me that the process could be rather less sophisticated than maybe we suppose.

Coincidentally OP began to drop shortly after the buybacks ceased on Wednesday (chart below), although G’s price remained substantially constant (unlike DNO and GKP) until the next morning. At that point G’s sp fell sharply - arguably overcompensating - presenting a good ‘value accretive’ buyback opportunity at more favourable prices relative to OP than earlier in the week. Alas, none were acquired at that stage. Monday maybe?

https://invst.ly/brz-8

The end of an unimpressive week with G ultimately 3% down since last Friday. As bunks pointed out last night, and the absence of an RNS seems to confirm, there were apparently no buybacks yesterday and there was little evidence of any today. Ordinarily that shouldn’t matter, however the sp failed to respond to a firmer OP this morning and was down 4% at one point compared to Brent, even though oil was set to end the week level over the five days. GKP is meanwhile marching ahead briskly. Note also DNO’s increasingly steep decline.

Here are the last five days G/GKP/DNO v Brent: https://invst.ly/brwpz

Given Brent’s fairly steady week, G’s Thursday drop to $172 and overall fall of 4% appears to have been market driven rather than reactive to Brent; it’s particularly disappointing in light of the anticipated effect of bbs that seem to have paused. The G:OP ratio has consequently dropped back a little to just under 3x

DNO’s performance is increasingly of concern given the geographic and operational relationships between the two companies. This week it fell below G in the ‘OctoberPeakOP’ Comparison chart https://invst.ly/brwr4 for the first time and is now over 40% down on its April peak. It lost 10% over the last week alone, whilst OP was effectively flat, which poses the question of whether there is a common issue, other than OP, that is also weighing upon G. See separate threads: Whitehat, Jood etc comments worth reading. GKP now leads the runners in that particular race.

In a different comparison, here are all the runners since G commenced bbs:

By this measure G is doing ok given, I believe, a smaller bb pot and a less defined schedule than GKP: https://invst.ly/brwqj

I think you could well be correct about Tawke, Whitehat.
I've also noted a market/sector correlation between DNO and G with RDS at times in the past - and clearly the major has also suffered in the last week or so. Clearly the market and sentiment are not good right now anyway - but DNO's performance, which had levelled out after May's hammering is suddenly back on a steep downward path, making it the worst performer of the three Kurdy Cos (G, GKP & DNO) since October.

Hmm, yes Jack - it doesn't smell right.

'Hope' isn't a word I like to find myself using in the context of investments - you certainly can't pay bills with the stuff.

DNO's sp performance has been very poor since early May, increasingly weak through July and falling sharply this month. Like G, it has not yet responded to today's improvement in OP. It's even starting to make PMO look good.
I had assumed that DNO's problems were linked more to its N Sea activity but Is G being held back by association or by some of the same issues?
https://invst.ly/brs5h
https://invst.ly/brs4o

Maybe not bunks - we can't know for sure till the RNS, which sometimes follows in the morning.
Until then I'm guessing - like everyone else - on the way the sp moves, which is why I said 'seem to' because there were some definite and low lows followed by bounce up.
Re-basing the chart on the day, looks like you could be right - DNO and G were very similar, which suggests there may have been no bbs. That would be good as far as I'm concerned - a fair performance with no bb support or cash spent.
https://invst.ly/brkij

If you were employed to acquire G shares at the lowest possible prices whilst the market is generally being hammered and falling, wouldn’t you be inclined to let it fall as far as possible before buying? Today’s bbs seemed to kick-in when the G:OP ratio dropped to around 2.91x and to ease off when the ratio approached 3.00. Fair enough, I would say. I’m also glad that I’m not holding DNO, which is 26% down since G started their first phase of bbs, with half the fall in the last fortnight, making G’s loss of 2% over the entire period look positively healthy.

Here are the last five days G/GKP/DNO v Brent: https://invst.ly/brhiw

….and all the runners since buybacks started - quite a novelty to see RDS lower than PMO…..: https://invst.ly/brhh0

Ha! and down again! If I didn't know better, I'd think they start buying at 3x and stop as it rises above...

No - it's not Bunks, quire right Sunk to 172 when I wasn't looking!

They should have sufficient ammo to steady the ship..... Looks like they've chosen not to just yet.

I think G did rather well yesterday considering the low quantity of bbs. So a drop today was on the cards unless they stepped in. It makes sense as a strategy to tease out sellers who are inclined to sell at low prices by letting dips in OP test them. At the moment they certainly seem to stop buying when the magic G:OP ratio goes near 3.1 x . It pushes my recent forecast of up to 3.4 x into the realms of fantasy. However, I think they do still have up to £5m left to spend, so I'm not entirely giving up hope of a significant improvement from here. GLA

Whilst G wallows around in the mid 170's I thought I'd look closer at the chart of runners and riders since Peak OP last October, which I find always gives a realistic appraisal of how the respective members are really doing. And a dismal story it is: https://invst.ly/brcez

Having performed as badly as PMO during October and November, GKP is now challenging RDS as leader of the pack, largely due to its bb scheme and a very disappointing Q2 knocking the major off pole position. Shell, it should be noted, is also buying back shares at the moment.
To put it in context, G would need to be around 205 to be matching GKP in this comparison.
DNO has not maintained the enthusiasm it generated in the first five months of the year and is now back where it was in late December. PMO is pretty much a carbon copy of DNO but offset negatively by the massive hit it took during the autumn, from which it has yet to recover.

In fact, rebasing the chart to November 23rd when OP was similar to today, at about $59, shows the entire field, apart from GKP, to be virtually back where they were on that date. Hardly inspiring:
https://invst.ly/brchg