Member Info for Boyobach

Cheers Leem1 - and good luck.

G may well have its faults but sometimes it is criticised unjustifiably. The last month's sp performance (since buybacks) has been relatively good in relation to peers. It doesn't help the debate when incorrect observations or assumptions go unchallenged. Investors need to be objective - not always easy, especially with G.

As someone who is often the gloomy de-ramper here, I do find a lot of whinging about G without the numbers to back it up quite irritating.

Some here need to wake up to the fact they are invested in a risky oil-price dependent company.
Even ‘strong and stable’ RDS is doing badly.
If you drop something heavy on your foot do you blame gravity?
Regarding G's recent performance as OP has collapsed (as it periodically does)....
Fact: G has performed better than GKP,RDS,PMO and DNO since the buybacks were introduced:
https://invst.ly/bm9z-

GKP comes very close - but has also been buying back.
PMO is next but is arguably worse in other comparisons

My advice:
Stop blaming G for your own investment decisions.
Get braced for OP dropping further - risk assess.
Sell if you feel holding on could cause you a serious financial or health problem.

It’s satisfying when something as unpredictable as Brent seems to stick to the chart. Although whether it will stop, or even pause, at orange here remains to be seen as $50 to $53 seems highly possible (wider view):
https://invst.ly/bm73u
Wider view: https://invst.ly/bm7jm

This is not a time to be rash with G - either buying or selling. Smaller tranches so that you can minimise risk and average out losses or profits whilst the market is moving, are often a good idea.

The last five days of G/GKP/DNO v Brent: https://invst.ly/bm6zq show that G strengthened against OP yesterday (red closing well above green) and held onto about half of that margin today. G:Brent ratio (169:56.4) down to exactly 3.0. (OANDA should give a similar result at the moment). ‘Easy does it’ would be my advice - I bought 1k on the basis that I think there’s only a 50/50 chance of bottom here.

Over at GKP I think the buy-back boys have eased off whilst the knife drops - there’s no point swimming against such a tide (to mix as many metaphors as possible).

It’s a pity I can’t share the interactive version of the ‘runners and riders from October’ chart https://invst.ly/bm8su because it allows me to easily read off all the sp s from dates when the OP was at today’s level. Would you believe that on Jan 3rd G closed at 180p with Brent at $56? So, unless you think oil is doomed to stay below $60 and that G is now weaker than it was then, you might think sub 170 is an attractive price. Keep cash handy though.

I thought the AGM gave them permission (one interpretation of mandate) to buy much more than $10m worth but would have to check. Their announcement to proceed with a buyback stated it would run up to the start of the close period , which implied they would announce any resumption. The line you quoted seems to say they intend to resume without any further announcement - although I'd have expected something more explicit. It would be a bit daft to restart immediately with OP on a potential cliff edge - especially as they are supposed to invest in order to generate investor value. Better to wait and see what happens. In terms of performing my own 'buybacks' it's a case of steady and slow - small chunks!

With OP potentially headed down tonight towards its lowest levels this year and with G's very direct and proportional link to it, I'm not adding to my holding of G presently as there's at least a 50/50 chance the sp is going to fall further short-term.
https://invst.ly/bk-p5

The last five days of G/GKP/DNO v Brent: https://invst.ly/bkrhl

Which shows that G has tracked Brent quite faithfully up to this morning (H1 Report), upon which G stepped up from 178 to nearly 183 initially but eventually dropped back to179 as OP continued to weaken towards $59.5. The ratio of g/$bbl being just about 3.01x at the close - about average for the year and matching the post-buyback level.

Looking at all the runners and riders from this year’s Peak OP of $74.6 in April, we can see that G is about middle of the pack, with RDS, DNO and PMO being the most disappointing over the last couple of weeks with the first two releasing poorly accepted results and OP continuing to fall https://invst.ly/bkr6z . At least G’s results didn’t trigger a similar immediate reaction.

Over the longer timescale, from October’s peak, the leader board looks a little different because DNO enjoyed some excellent months earlier in the year before falling back equally spectacularly: https://invst.ly/bkr4u
After tending to lag behind until January and vying for position for some months, GKP eventually overtook G as OP fell back in mid May and still remains ahead of G over this period, with buybacks presumably supporting the price as OP has fallen over the last couple of weeks.

Bearing in mind that the H1 results have confirmed what the market should already have expected, it is perhaps not surprising to see the sp hold roughly constant in relation to today’s OP. The sp does seem to be low but maybe that’s a simple reflection of the risks that the market perceives about the region in which G operates and its naturally direct exposure to OP: https://invst.ly/bku1m

Ocelot is quite correct that 'at 178.00p, puts Genel on a P/E of 4.0x.' also on the Bina B detail....
But will the market re-rate G? Probably not overnight as there were no surprises today - G has delivered pretty much according to guidance. There'll be no recognition of Bina Bawi etc. until something concrete actually happens and cash generation starts.

If you genuinely think it's cheap then fill your boots..... I'm almost maxed out, but may accumulate more if trading tranches of it continues to be profitable. Trading has been my only source of gains in G over the last 12 months, worth about 20% of the total invested. Not too shabby as Hawkey might say.

A correction:
Earlier I commented on the five day G/GKP/DNO v Brent chart that:
‘Brent’s fall of just over 4% during the five days of the chart have been matched by just over 7% drop in G - which does indicate that G is being disproportionately hit [by the drop in Bent]‘
But when I rolled forward to prepare for tomorrow’s chart I found that G was perfectly ‘in sync’ with Bent for four of the five days - not disproportionately hit by Brent’s fall as I’d suggested:
https://invst.ly/bk1uo
Explanation? Well, on reviewing this evening’s chart
https://invst.ly/bjs08
I realised that G actually took a hit last Tuesday, when DNO’s results were announced, and it fell vs Brent at that stage. So DNO’s results appear to have caused half of G’s drop over the last week, whilst Brent only contributed the other half. No disproportionate effect at all.

Re BoJo's Wrexit: As people are starting to realise, and as I've said before, 'no deal' does not have to get through parliament, quite the reverse, parliament will have to engineer a way if it wants to stop it.

There's a cancel entry (minus sign and 'sell') six lines further up on the screen I'm looking at Bunks. Pity. Would've been nice.

Just to put that last Brent chart in perspective...here's a wider view: https://invst.ly/bjxq3

Thanks for the alert OHG.
That's particularly nasty, given it dropped through a supporting trend line in the process:
https://invst.ly/bjwzc
Not much of a safety net below $58 until $52 - has everyone noticed that OP has a characteristic near vertical drop line?
What's the steepest rollercoaster you've been on?
Maybe I should have bailed out with JL - too late now methinks.

For those that might worry (needlessly most of the time) about the difference between crude prices (eg OANDA or XBR) and the more commonly quoted ‘front month’ future LCO, the two are shown on this chart today - XBR being darker green and LCO lighter - to show that it usually makes little difference chart-wise providing you consistently use one or the other.

The last 5 days G/GKP/DNO v Brent: https://invst.ly/bjs08

Pretty much everything went south today along with G: just check out RDSb in the chart at the end! Having done relatively well on Friday G appeared to be hit a bit harder today. Anyhoo, Brent’s fall of just over 4% during the five days of the above chart have been matched by just over 7% drop in G - which does indicate that G is being disproportionately hit. Consequently the good old multiple of Gs sp to $/bbl has dropped from the recently solid 3.0x to below 2.9x and the ‘buyback boost’ might consequently be starting to erode - can’t say for definite until OP stops falling and G flattens out again,

Tempted to buy? I wasn’t - having added at the 180 resistance/trend level on Friday, 175 wasn’t sufficiently lower to bring out the essential reserve. You always need to leave some spare cash after buying G at a supposed low because it very often drops a bit further - especially with OP in the driving seat. At 170 I think I’d have committed a bit more.

Meanwhile, if you are hankering after switching cash into RDS it’s worth keeping an eye on -
The other runners and riders since last October’s good times: https://invst.ly/bjrzu

Ha! :
“Delaying a solution to the disputes serves no interests of Erbil and Baghdad. The situation has changed now,”
Yeah right..... let's see if the situation really has changed! It will be truly remarkable if it has. I wonder what Masoud wants to happen (apart from eventual independence, of course).

Maybe Ocelot. G down to below 2.9x Brent - let's see if it recovers by the close.
There'll be a strong pull towards 170 now, unfortunately. A lot of buyers would hang back I think.
Here's the last five days, with OP moves during the night/weekend shown: https://invst.ly/bjf9m

It's worth noting that when Brent hit $61 last week the market was closed and the price had recovered by the next open, so this is effectively the lowest G has seen since before the buybacks. The 15p boost that those introduced is now looking fragile.

It appears to have illicitly been carrying diesel that was possibly stolen and may have originated in Iran itself - so hardly a big deal as far as International tensions are concerned. Iraq have said they don't export diesel and the oil ministry has denied any connection with the ship.

Yes, slightly under $3m of $10m budget used. Details on the company website
> Investor Relations > 2019 Share -Buyback Programme + link to running total pdf
So $7m of budget remaining, apparently.

Agreed CoV, although I think you might be slightly misinterpreting the charts.

The two price scales (one in p and one in $) are there to allow people to roughly gauge either the G or the Brent prices represented by the two graphs . There's no other significance intended to the values being side by side as they only reflect the relationship that the two had when the chart was re-based - which is somewhat arbitrary, although I often use the same re-base date of Oct 3 2018 (peak OP) for consistency.

In general, I found that G’s sp has averaged 3x $OP so far this year. So $62 Brent could be expected to give an sp of around 186p if G is performing typically. Higher or lower than this indicates G's relative strength in the market.

I agree about the buybacks and think a continuation would improve on this 3x ratio. Immediately prior to the buybacks the ratio was more like 2.7x - the lowest this year apart from the ex-div period, which was obviously non-typical.

Hi Hawkey - Yes, it could turn out just about good enough even without Bina Bawi, disappointing as that would be. I do hope there isn't another 'smart' write down though!

My main point - hinted rather than expressed - is that there is generally an unrealistic expectation regarding G which inevitably leads to investor frustration expressed here. It's understandable given what happened to the sp 12 months ago but that is history and we have to move on from it.

You mention that $1b number over five years - slide 7 of the AGM presentation suggests that in terms of liquidity from existing developments (I take that to include Sarta but not Qara D) . If it is correct then that would be equivalent to about $3.57 per share or roughly £3.