Member Info for Boyobach

Well done Withoutt!

Sorry bunks - a close call after all. I was fooled by the LSE header.

Hi Elcapitan,
It's not irrelevant to me personally because buybacks, however they are implemented, can influence the short and medium term share price.
Phase one of G's buybacks netted me a cash trading profit (a short term target) and also restored the longer term ratio of G's sp to OP, which had dropped markedly from the end of April - thus benefiting my longer term holding. I re-acquired the shares when the price dropped back as OP fell and in anticipation of further buybacks. They consequently affect a) the net cost of my holding (I deduct any profits from the cost of my holding) and b) increase the market value of each remaining share - the non-traded core of my G investment.
What sp do you think G would be enjoying today if they had not embarked on the buyback programme? The kindest estimate, based on G tracking Brent 1:1 from 24th June, would be 165p (DNO has lost a good deal more). That's potentially a lot of money as far as I'm concerned. So, yes, I'm interested - not necessarily obsessed.
For those who choose to invest in G and not manage their investment then I guess buybacks may be of less interest - although I can't conceive of a situation where I would not be interested in how G's sp was moving in relation to OP and the wider market.

Hey - what happened to bunk's winning entry? Has to be the closest we've had in many a week.
Well done bunks!

With BB activity resuming over the last couple of days, just 16 trading days left to run and, possibly, around £4m left to spend - still about half of the budget - it seems worth reviewing my bb expectations. The spend could break down to about 250k per day - not dissimilar to today’s outlay. Given the effect of this week’s quite mild effort, which pushed the G:OP ratio up to 3.14x without much difficulty or expenditure at one point, I’d certainly expect 3.2x to be attained as a minimum. My original suggestion that 3.4x was achievable still stands based on the quantity of cash remaining, although I recognise it looks increasingly optimistic and, consequently, my more conservative working target remains 3.3x in the absence of any other stimulus. That would put G just under 200p at $60 Brent. Of course, there are no guarantees regarding Brent!

Here are the last five days G/GKP/DNO v Brent: https://invst.ly/bvehf

Brent is nearly on the 0% line, so nearly back at the same level as a week ago, for the second week running . But the wider picture for Brent is really not good as the next charts will show. Of the Kurdys, GKP took the biggest hit today, ending down over 4% on Brent over the week. G and DNO were both 5% up on Brent over the week with the G:OP ratio ending up stronger at around 3.1x.

Having established the very long term (3 year) alignment between G’s sp and 3xBrent, I’m now using that as the basis for the long term chart comparison of the two, not least because it simplifies the scale: https://invst.ly/bvekm

Here’s a closer look at the bit that matters, since April: https://invst.ly/bvel8

I’d draw attention to the parallel pair of falling trends, green and orange, that mark Brent’s and G’s respective declines since the end of April. There can be little doubt about their alignment. Now that they are both fast approaching the intersection with the bottom red rising trend line - effectively marking the worst expected value for either of them and already breached once - the question is, obviously, which trend will get broken? Bear in mind that often, when a trend is broken, the price will move more sharply. So: will OP continue downward, dragging G with it or will the reverse apply and OP turn upwards as it did in January? Either way, Brent is in the driving seat and, despite some upward moves like yesterday’s blip, it has not been looking good since it started to fall at the end of April: https://invst.ly/bvelr

Runners and Riders since April 2019 Peak Oil: https://invst.ly/bven3

So it later transpired that buybacks had indeed restarted today as Bacchus astutely suspected. Interesting as prices of 174 and lower were available but overlooked for 'value acretive' acquisition late last week. It's apparently better to buy at around 10p more. OK - I think we can dispense with any notion that the buybacks are a particularly 'smart' or 'strategic' process. However, there is no doubt in my mind that, even as a blunt instrument, it should remove the low hanging fruit: ie many shares that would likely be traded at relatively low prices and consequently hold the price back. I reckon there's still £4.5m to spend - but don't rely on that number, it could be miles out, do your own sums. Ultimately let's hope the G:OP ratio gets improved over the next three or four weeks even if the sp itself remains flat due to a weaker OP.

Guy was on a week's break, obviously. Ha!

Probably not a sophisticated sp 'adjustment' programme - not targeted at acquiring at specific low prices (opportunities missed over several days), not aimed at sp support ( opportunities missed). Just a process - like sorting the mail in the post room when the office is open. I expect acquisitions to proceed at a variable rate according to what sellers come forward until the budget is spent/ the deadline.

Yes, Ocelot, a quite remarkable turn of events this afternoon with G:OP ratio up to 3.14x - best it's been in quite a while. I wonder if buybacks have restarted as Bacchus observed. Exceptionally good sign if not.
I agree Comeonvog, it was a potential sell point and it's never wrong to take a profit. I have higher targets in mind for my trading tranches however, so not tempted myself - happy to wait although, as I've said in previous post, OP is not looking clever.

Just to cheer everyone up - G having a good day today but, the wider picture is less rosy. Brent has been in a downtrend for nearly four months now and , following this afternoon's downturn at a potential break point, there's no sign of it coming to a close: https://invst.ly/burnw . What Brent does then G usually follows, with the wedge (orange top, red base) in this next chart ever tightening https://invst.ly/burrm . Will G break up or down when it reaches the decision point?

I was about to disagree until I noticed how well it is standing up to this afternoon's drop in Brent. That's even more encouraging if it does not involve buybacks, with G:OP now up to 3.08x
https://invst.ly/burfl

Lunchtime scores today as, again, no evening roundup from me.

Here are the last five days G/GKP/DNO v Brent: https://invst.ly/buokm

We can see that Brent has eased gradually upward over the five days, carrying the Kurdy oil companies with it, G appearing to do marginally better than the others and a bit less volatile. The magic ‘G:OP’ ratio is up to 3.07x as I write - that’s up from 3.0x on Monday morning

Immediate Targets:
With over half of the $10m buyback budget presumably still available and three weeks to run after the Bank Holiday let’s hope for some price action next week if the buyback chap returns after a two week break. Today’s ‘Benchmark Chart’ shows a close-up view of G v 3xBrent with target lines for 3.2x $60 and $61Brent, ie 192p and 195p which should be achievable at current OP levels if buybacks resume and have the same relative impact as they did in early July: https://invst.ly/buola

..... in theory, that is.

Ha! Of course you weren't disqualified bunks - just my little joke cos you messed up the sequence that Ocelot spotted.
With no buybacks you are spot-on for $61 OP.

That looks like it could be Whitehat - so shouldn't affect the existing upstream agreement. I guess Rosneft would somehow be involved in the KRG funding.

Where did you hear about the 50% Hawkey?
I wonder if there's an Ashti fee .....

A lunchtime view, with $61 OP as there’ll be no further comment from me today. Here’s the ‘benchmark chart’, where green ‘Brent’ marks my view of G’s average performance v OP. You’ll notice I’ve added a line showing the ‘anticipated best sp for this OP’ :
https://invst.ly/bu69p
The ‘best sp’ is estimated using the highest G:OP ratio achieved this year, which is 3.5x - ie about 213p at $61 Brent. It’s consequently a highly optimistic target at the moment in my view.

The current 185p is just above G’s average ratio of 3.0xOP.

Here’s the last five days up to 12.30 today - good to see DNO firming up. Not sure why GKP is dropping back - buybacks paused or stopped maybe?. G seems to be naturally increasing in step with OP: https://invst.ly/bu6g5 . No obvious sign of bbs so far today.

If you think someone is trolling you, someone else or maybe the share being discussed, then it seems only fair to tell them and let others on the board know how you feel. Depending on how they respond you can then decide whether to filter them from your chats. You should report any abusive posts.

Good points Hawkey.

I think that Rosneft and Dana are now the main players in the development of the KRG's gas resources.
I expect you saw this February article by Patrick Osgood, which does cover a lot of the background:
https://www.petroleum-economist.com/articles/upstream/exploration-production/2019/russia-aids-kurdistan-gas-boost
It contains this bit:
Genel's plans on hold
Stalled Turkish-KRG energy diplomacy has left London-listed Genel Energy sitting on its Miran and Bina Bawi fields for several years.

Last January, Genel upped contingent gas resource estimates at the two fields by over 40pc, to 14.8tr ft3, and there is oil at Bina Bawi to help kick-start an initial drilling programme.

Genel is keen to start tapping light oil from Bina Bawi; but the KRG is not rushing to approve field development plans, and Genel will not invest before the midstream is sorted. Contaminants — particularly sulphur — in Miran and Bina Bawi gas will require a shared processing plant and about 100km (62 miles) of sour-gas pipeline spurs, a $2-3bn project that needs to be finalised before Genel can get drilling.

So far, the anticipated Turkish investment has not materialised, and while Rosneft now has the initiative, it remains to be seen if it will stump up for the plant, or whether the economics will actually work. Having previously talked up investment interest, Genel had no news in its January 2019 operations update, and appears set to write down the booked value of the Miran gasfield, reflecting delays to the project.

I

Hmmm yet another case involving Ashti, around whom, it seems, murky rumours have flown for years.
Interesting that the Talabanis and PUK are allegedly involved this time - his 'affiliations' always seemed to be Barzani/KDP. But, of course, this company is Sulaymaniah based - PUK territory.
One can only guess at all that might have happened in G's past.

Hawkey - I don't think this guy has convinced you really. Do you know much about RJS? I visited his main blog but not much about him - other than he says ' unencumbered by education, affiliations, beliefs or agenda; im not advocating anything'
Fair enough.