Member Info for Boyobach

Too true....

To True Ocelot - thanks! It really wasn’t much of a punt was it? It’d be a bit of a cheat to pick the lowest number, miss by a mile and claim it as some sort of victory - so I certainly won’t be doing that tonight. Wednesday’s fall knocked the price well below my immediate expectations - came about a week sooner than I thought it might. So much for charts eh? Although G has a track record of dropping rapidly through that particular line…..
https://invst.ly/e537v
So, just to add, in case of interest, the last three occasions that G dropped through the bright red trend line here, as it did on Wednesday, it did not turn back until it approached the lowest of the red trend lines. I guess the blue might also intervene so, subject to OP stabilising or doing a U turn, I know whereabouts I’d be planning a possible top-up. But DYOR and remember last year - OP and G could easily go lower although an sp of 210+ must be a conservative possibility in the NY as we head towards an even better set of FY results than 2018 with, hopefully, no more write downs.

Yes, I'm in others H. But G is the only one I care to comment on - probably because it is the riskiest and, consequently, the most interesting.
I hold boring ones like BT and Lloyds - which are hard work, frankly, because if you don't trade them you can wave bye-bye to your capital. Rather like G funnily enough!
PFC has been a nice earner - volatile but with a strong base level (up to now) and good divis
Others I hold/ held, traded and sold include ISAT, STAN, RDS, James Halstead, Aviva, Voda and Solid State. A few others too boring to remember. I have learn't that you can'r buy and forget - some trading is necessary to manage the portfolio value.
I try to pick ones that are low (not necessarily cheap - that's a warning sign!) and on a rising curve. Metro for example, would not have been on my shopping list - partly because of that but also because, next to oil, banks are risky as hull, I've been bitten by STAN and HSBC in the past.

Yes - I have to agree bunks. Things certainly went wrong on Wednesday - https://invst.ly/e4sot - when G was already down compared to the Brent spike. It does usually correct itself over a period and it hasn't yet lost touch with the 3x ratio (as it did after May - triggering the buybacks later in June). Gritting my teeth at the moment as I only sold one tranche of two that I intended to offload prior to the likely autumn pull-back. The spike deflected me from my plan as I'd expected it to push the sp to 210+ before the likely autumn pull-back. Hey, at least I haven't suffered like JL and Sockbuster. I looked at Metro - it brought a chill, reminded me of the way G went up to the Taq Taq collapse. One reason I use charts - they don't predict the unexpected but they do indicate the vulnerable and risky ones that you daren't put too much into. G is quite borderline IMO - I certainly wouldn't bet the farm on it and I watch it like a hawk.

I’ve done a few comparisons of G and the others rebased from immediately before the oil price spike of 16th September but none from immediately after it. So here you have the ‘before’ and ‘after’ pictures, which interestingly do bear out the observations of bunks and others that G sometimes appears to fall in response to OP rather more readily than it rises:
Before: https://invst.ly/e4jji
After: https://invst.ly/e4juv

What this shows is that G has fairly accurately tracked the fall in Brent since the spike but did not respond as strongly to the spike in the first place. Much the same can be said for DNO. So both experienced an overall fall against OP. This should hopefully even out over time.

Things are certainly pretty gloomy at the moment and I guess that there won't be much to shout about until there's more progress on Bina B, Sarta and Qara D. In the meantime, like all investors in Oil Co's, we remain very much in the hands of OP.
With G’s red price line falling below Brent’s green price line on the G v 3xBrent chart, we immediately know when G has fallen slightly below the 3xBrent level that has effectively given G’s ‘normal’ performance against OP over the last couple of years.
https://invst.ly/e3fck

(Here’s a four year view of the same chart if you want to check the history of the 3x relationship and the trends I’ve mentioned: https://invst.ly/e3kwc )

The 3xBrent relationship suffered at the end of May but was restored by the buyback programme. However it does seem to be back under pressure.

The shaded track shows my anticipated path for G according to current trends, which are largely influenced by OP. The lowest red dashed line gives my expected worst performance for G based on the same trends and a minimum OP of around $58.

However, if Brent continues to fall into the ‘yellow’ zone marked on the Brent long term chart here, at a price nearer $55, then I’d expect G to naturally move even lower :
https://invst.ly/e3ft0
Much would then depend on how well it holds on to the 3xBrent ratio.
I don’t suppose the ‘red zone’ needs any explanation.

It’s perhaps worth looking at how OP and Oil Co sps have moved since immediately before the impact upon prices of the KSA attacks - which did not affect markets until 16th September. This chart gives the usual group plus BP:
https://invst.ly/e1y12

The only interesting point to note for us is that both G and DNO have lost ground relative to Brent so are actually weaker and at a lower price than prior to the attacks.

GKP is effectively flat but slightly weaker against Brent.
BP has tracked Brent.
RDS is the only gainer of the group.
PMO is PMO: was the most volatile and is now lower than the rest.

Hawkey summed it up perfectly for me jL - wishing you well after this setback.

The sp may not be solely dependent upon OP, Jack, but it rarely strays more than +/- 5% from 3x Brent $/bbl.

The buybacks happened to cease on a day it was slap in the middle of that range - although I’m not suggesting that that was the reason. We have no idea what exact parameters Canaccord were working to and what, if any, influence G exerted after the task was delegated to them. However, I very much doubt there was any connection with Somaliland or indeed any other impending company news. More likely, I think, that having done a splendid job with just over half the $10m budget, the judgement was that more ‘value accretive’ opportunities might occur if OP fell further - as most pundits seemed to be saying.

Prior to the KSA missile strikes it seemed quite possible that Brent was heading for $58 or lower and it’s starting to appear that it is back on that course. My guess is that buybacks might restart if, at that point, G’s sp drops below around 170. We are already half way there after last week’s high, so it’s not unfeasible.

I’d agree with you Leem except that G does follow OP both up and down pretty closely as far as the long-term (as opposed to hourly) picture is concerned- sometimes passing it on the way up and sometimes passing it on the way down. For the first five months of this year it was ahead of oil most of the time but fell back below during June. About even at the moment. The present average mathematical relationship won’t change unless/until there’s a significant change in the underlying proven and probable asset level. Shareholders should be realistic about this, IMO. Dividend returns are attractive and the balance sheet is strong but some holders have expectations that are highly dependent on potential developments - these are risks and uncertainties that they implicitly accept by remaining invested.

The autumn tail-off in demand started a bit earlier this year: the period between northern hemisphere driving (plus ME air-con demand) and the winter heating season often sees a slackening off. So, for those like myself who would be minded to buy or top back up in G at the right price, the question is how low might it go?

It primarily revolves around OP, of course, with last year’s $50 an obvious possibility and so, by force of logic, 150p for G. Ouch! The four year Brent chart does paint a slightly brighter picture, suggesting that OP might bottom out between $55 and $58, ie in the cheerful yellow box here:
https://invst.ly/dduhc

Even with the differential narrowing, $55 Brent reduces WTI to a difficult price for US shale drillers to justify the capital spend necessary to maintain high production levels. The smaller differential also makes US oil less competitive because of the transportation costs. So my guess would be Brent bottom at $56, putting G potentially in the region of 170p. But who knows? Today’s hit could well turn out to be an over-reaction in an overly gloomy market, maybe we’ve seen the worst of it and $100 oil is really just around the corner.

Yep, it's cabbage alright Hawkey - lovin' your typos.
If you want to be cheered up then don't read my thoughts on OP, coming up after the break....

G is now lower than it was in the week leading up to a massive loss of oil production from the KSA. Logical?

https://invst.ly/dcbq1

So either:
1)There was virtually no loss of production.
2)The OP was higher than it should have been prior to the event.
3)KSA (assisted by the US) are working very hard to maintain supply and keep the price down.

It makes the ‘$100 OIl’ story that was circulating a few weeks ago look like the nonsense it truly was

Sub 190 had been on the cards since the weekend.
Potentially two 'overshoots' in prospect : Brent falling too far plus G falling too far in relation to it.
G is already worse v Brent than it was before the KSA attacks and still falling.
The physical effect of the production loss has not, of course, worked through the supply chain yet.

My commiserations also, JL.
It's disappointing to see an innovative and socially beneficial device fail commercially.
Hope the cash loss is not too serious for you .

nostvofcthe others......Russian for most of the others?

It'll catch up tomorrow, no doubt.....https://invst.ly/d4fe1

This link should work: https://invst.ly/cxw-4
G looking set to drop back into the 180's at this rate, especially if OP continues to drift back down over the next three months.

Never love shares Hawkey - investing is a task. They either deliver or you must ditch them.
I think that, maybe, you get too hooked on 'the story'.
Nat and Tony spun a good one, maybe they believed it themselves at the time.
G has caught me twice: Taq Taq 's big write down and then the failure to develop Bina Bawi, leading to the collapse in sp from near £3 last year and the Miran write down. Fortunately I didn't lose money the second time and I have a phased exit plan for whichever way the sp moves from here. The first part of which was offloading a tranche when the buybacks stopped early and the sp stalled in the 190s.
G is on its third and final chance as far as I'm concerned. The story has, of course moved on to Sarta and Qara: will they prove to be more works of fiction?
G is struggling to get over £2 these days even with oil at $65 - so the 'analysts' who are targeting £3+ are possibly sale's orientated and selling 'the story' rather than proven deliverable numbers. If it does get back to £3 (I'm sceptical about that) then it will be a bonus as far as I'm concerned. In the meantime I'll make a few £k a year out of the dividend and trading it.
GL!

sorry - duff link. It seems chart links not working ATM.

Jack: Gap at 191....? Is that from the 13th closing price ? I don't really see that because it had traded higher on the day, leaving a small gap at 195 the following day but that filled on the 19th. However, if oil continues to soften then we'll certainly revisit those levels. G still hasn't broken above this orange wedge line either: https://invst.ly/cvrbp