Member Info for Boyobach

Just continuing the theme: Brent has perked up to near $62 since the middle of last week and, although DNO appears to have had a minor glitch on Friday , G, GKP and RDSb have tracked it pretty much 1:1
https://invst.ly/njvtd

When one considers the volatility of OP and also the nature of the business that G and companies like it are engaged in, you might expect a lot of variation in respective sp’s over a year.

Here’s G v RDSb v Brent over the last 12 months: https://invst.ly/njgkv

When day to day volatility is filtered out of the comparison, the underlying sp’s have not diverged significantly. This is good in one sense - it indicates that G’s sp is relatively stable after eight years of very mixed fortunes. It is disappointing, however, in that it clearly demonstrates that the company’s value has not changed over the period as far as the market is concerned. OP today is not much different to its average price last November/December (the green dashed price line) and, although it’s perhaps less volatile today, G remains in the same ballpark.

Boyo 192
Withoutt 195
Mayor Bunks 197
Wolfbag 199
Hawkey 201
broadland 204
ocelot 210

Rangor: ‘what do you think is a reasonable stop loss position below the daily SP?’

Well you are quite right about the pitfalls of stops, Rangor. I’m not talking about large proportions of my holding initially - I only trade around 10% of the total at a time - and I will already have made my target price , so if the stop triggers then I’ll be no worse off than I originally planned. I’ll also only stick to this if G seems to be rising consistently and is possibly being re-rated by the market. I’ll otherwise sell and top back up in the usual cyclical manner

My target prices and stops are set according to the nearest trend and resistance/support lines - not percentages. I’ll set the initial stop just below both an established rising trend and a horizontal support level once the price has reached the target by rising above them. If the sp keeps moving up, I’ll progressively increase the stop as the sp passes through successive support lines but always staying below the trend line. So the stop will be protected by both a trend and a support line and should only trigger if the price falls below both. When this happens it usually keeps going, so topping back up at a lower price may be possible.

I’ll only move the stop up significantly if/when the sp climbs over the next trend line - at which point I may have reached the target for a second tranche - and the process repeats with the enlarged tranche. In a perfect world the tranches would accumulate as each target is passed and I’ll ultimately sell the lot at my long term target. Ha! That’s not going to happen.

Forgot to insert this chart link (Gv 3xBrent ) https://invst.ly/mxk7j
Sharp-eyed observers will notice that Wednesday's opening price has been corrected by the publishers - was previously a red candle showing a falling price when actually it was a rising price that day - and therefore a more positive indication.

Congrats to Mayor bunks - a hat trick of astute judgement. I just might dump charts and start following the guy with the crystal ball...
Meanwhile, though, the chart does look promising and with a fair wind (OP) we may see G reestablish itself in the 190s. The next major challenge being the price band between 197 and 203 - a few well known resistance lines in there and ordinarily where I'd be selling off the most recent tranche acquired in the 170's. But this time , because G seems less likely than previously to quickly retreat to sub 180, I may switch from selling at the target to selling on a daily adjusted stop loss: ie allowing the price to float beyond the planned target and only selling when it drops back.

The only disappointment has been that the sp:Brent ratio didn't conquer 3.2x and has fallen back to 3.1x. because Wednesday's bounce in Brent wasn't fully realised in G's sp, or some of the others. https://invst.ly/mxjd3

Let's hope so Withoutt - I think we'll all be glad to see G back into the 190s - but yours is obviously a very good call - OP up and G performing better than of recent times (for good reasons)....
I'd love to see Hawkey in with a chance too but I don't think there's enough time for that just yet.

He certainly is bunks and it would be good news for us all if he carries the trophy tomorrow. If Withoutt wins outt then good for him but it won’t be the stronger platform we all need to see with G back onto that trend rather than bouncing back down from it. https://invst.ly/mpu33

Being picky about G, for a moment, it has actually been a bit weak today - back to just 3.1x OP and hasn’t closed at 3.2x yet this week - although managing it briefly intra-day. Let’s hope for better tomorrow: https://invst.ly/mptxl especially if OP holds firm.
In this last chart you can see how G has progressed ahead of the others over the last two weeks of trading - good to see GKP recovering too.

I agree Leem, although I think the sp could move swiftly positive if market confidence in Sarta and Bina Bawi gains traction. My post was to acknowledge a very perceptible change in G's behaviour this week and a consequent change in my own expectations since I made my FC entry. There is now a real possibility that this week's FC winner could be somewhere near the middle of the pack - which is as it should be if we are making rational and realistic predictions:
Boyo 178
Wolfbag 184
Withoutt 189
Bunks 193
Hawkey 200
Broadland 202
ocelot 205

We are well into the week now and, together with G maintaining a stronger relationship with OP, we have seen some improvement in OP itself. These factors are combining to make the chart look rather more optimistic than it has of recent months and we are seeing signs that G may gain a foothold on the middle blue trend line here: https://invst.ly/mndik .
What we need for this, of course, is for G to close above 190 - preferably 191 - in the next one or two trading days.

I share the glasses problem Hasiba! Ha!
Also the hope that one day we may see £3 again!

In context, over the last ten days, it was a bit of a glitch and correction as the oil co's had dropped a bit relative to OP
https://invst.ly/mhdc8
G, however, continues to do relatively better over the period. The GvBrent ratio hovering around the 3.2x area.

(Reuters) - Brent crude oil prices will likely continue trading around current levels in 2020, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) said on Wednesday, with slowing economic growth and geopolitical concerns failing to create large waves in the market.

Brent oil prices are expected to continue trading around the investment bank's $60 per barrel forecast in 2020, it said in a research note dated Tuesday.

"Ongoing OPEC cuts and slowing shale activity will offset rising other non-OPEC supply and moderate demand growth next year," the note said.

Do you mean 2015 Hasiba? I don't think G was ever over 150 in 2016.
Unfortunately there were a lot of reasons for that.

Initially - and for some time - the investing.com data showed the opening price as around 190p - so a potential gap of up to 5p.
They now show it opening at 185 - so no gap.

A nice bounce up but leaving a big gap according to Invest.com data.

Earlier today I mentioned that G seemed to have enjoyed a particularly strong run compared to Brent and its peers since 8th October. On closer inspection the divergence really seems to have started from the 10th. There doesn’t seem to be any obvious explanation as yet but it is very marked and not dissimilar to the effect seen during the buyback process. https://invst.ly/mbwr2

It’s unfortunately only to be expected in that particular area, Hasiba.
IS/Daesh have never been eliminated in Iraq and, in one form or another, will probably continue to be a threat and carry out violent attacks there for the foreseeable future.
As I understand it, IS inspired violence has never really ceased in Salahuddin. The Alas oilfields lie between the towns of Tuz Khurma - once described by Michael Knights as “....the most violent, most divided place in the country’ - and TIkrit where the largely Sunni population are presumably, unhappy with Iranian influence and Shiite balance of power in Baghdad. Near Tikrit is the site of Camp Speicher, notorious for the terrible massacre of that name, and further north lies the large and strategically important refinery of Baiji - which only restarted production a year ago after it was largely destroyed by IS in the conflict. In short, the region is probably quite a hotbed of residual IS activity.

Meanwhile, the whole of central and southern Iraq apparently remain immersed in political protests and unrest, so Iraq remains a tinderbox.

Whether the US still has good relations with the KRG after recent events in Syria, remains to be seen. Fortunately, Russian interests in the KRI provide some reassurance of stability in the region.

Quit right Ocelot! Always scope: some days offer just a tiny bit more encouragement than the compelling reasons that exist all the time.

According to my reckoning, OP has averaged $64 so far this year but, if current levels are maintained, this would fall to $63 by January. G’s sp, meanwhile, appears to have averaged 194p to date, giving an average GvOP ratio of 3.03x.

As the GvBrent ratio has edged above 3.15x during today it’s perhaps worth mentioning the significance if it reaches 3.2x. Using prices at the close rather than intraday, I reckon that the G v Brent ratio has only equalled or exceeded 3.2x on 26 days this year - that’s 12% of the time. It has managed 3.3x or better about half as much, ie for only about 6% of the time.

So I think we should be encouraged by the recent strengthening of G v Brent, which is hopefully due to genuine progress on various fronts as outlined by Malcy in his blog today, as well as other reactions to the same PR event .

There's also scope for the sp to move higher today, as OP firms up: https://invst.ly/ma03q