Member Info for Boyobach

There'll probably be a lot of profit taking after the sharp rise, Leem, so the pace was bound to slow at some point. I doubt that we'll see a repeat of the spring 2018 phenomenon taking G directly to 300. The next 'lowest low' is the one to watch for. My guess is that G will now cycle between 210 up to a max of 250 instead of the previous 170-210. That range might well take us up to the results.

Well a slow down or even a turn back was always on the cards from around 225 - both a resistance and a minor trend line from January plus strong resistance coming up at 230 :
https://invst.ly/oi5kb
It's not likely to be a straight run from here to beyond 233.

That's a relief Hydrogen - for a horrible moment I thought you'd gone for the eponymous song from '65- a tragedy on so many levels!

G is now, for the first time, leader of the pack in my comparison of six oil co's since OP peaked at $86 thirteen months ago.
Given market conditions in the industry, that is quite an achievement.
https://invst.ly/oh36p

247 is next but one for me - perhaps I'm just over-cautious.
It doesn't matter much - it wouldn't be a sell point for me given the current price action

Yes, bunks.
This pace is similar to early January, which took the sp from about 150 to 205 - and the 'minor' trend on my last chart that now stands at 225.
So it'll be interesting to see what happens between here and 233. Hopefully it has reached escape velocity and is heading for 250.

They'll probably make a film about Chesapeake and Aubrey McClendon one day.

Not exactly a textbook operation. Anyone who remained invested in it as OP started to fall and the stories began to circulate was taking a big risk.
Former CEO Aubrey famously died in a 2016 car accident shortly after being indicted by a Federal Grand Jury.
Reuters wrote this report in 2012:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chesapeake-mcclendon-profile/special-report-the-lavish-and-leveraged-life-of-aubrey-mcclendon-idUSBRE8560IB20120607

I'm inclined to agree with DHC regarding accumulation. G ended very strongly today with G:OP ratio finally reaching 3.4x at the close rather than intra-day. Perhaps the downturn in OP was too late to fully feed through to the SP. However, it does seem that provided G does not fall back to 208, it should manage to establish itself above the second blue trend line in this 18 month view:
https://invst.ly/ofbo1
If it succeeds, what might we expect next? That particular medium term trend line is currently crossing through 210 and has parallels below and above it which mark the adjacent medium term trends. As can be seen, G had been cycling between the lower pair since late May, typically taking around 2 months to do so. Having just broken through it might be expected to progress upwards towards the next blue trend line, where it will either turn back or break through again. That line is currently at 245, rising at a sedate 1.5p per month. This is consistent with G’s recent trading range of about 30p.

The space between the main trend lines is occupied by subjectively placed horizontal lines of resistance and support: these are levels where the price has previously slowed or turned back on the way up (resistance) or down (support). A level of resistance on the way up often (but not always) offers support once it has been passed and vice versa. You’ll notice there are fewer of them at the higher levels - this is because G moved rather more decisively in the summer of 2018, with less dithering. There are also a couple of intermediate trend lines which seem less likely to be significant to me but can’t be totally ignored.

All of which suggests that, at a reasonable rate of progress, the main chart obstacle for G between 210 and 245 is likely to be the resistance at around 230 (red) that stopped its progress at this year’s highs in March and April. This may well be sufficient to turn G back again for a while. As ever, of course, OP will still exert a huge influence.

Error in earlier post: 'So whilst G has added about 20%, two thirds of which can be attributed to OP rising by 6%..'
Should read: 'So whilst G has added about 20%, one third of which can be attributed to OP rising by 6%... '
Sorry about that - was meant to illustrate how well G is progressing, which has been quite phenomenal.

Looking at today's close and afternoon movements, Genel looks like it may well establish itself above that trend nominally passing through 210 , which will be an excellent platform for the next phase, which could possibly take it to 250 in a month or two (sooner if the current swift pace keeps going, of course) . Certainly worth looking at the hourly chart over the last eight days v Brent rebased (not 3x !) :
https://invst.ly/oaqem
It’s not entirely uncharted territory beyond 210 and the previous resistances will almost certainly still apply but sentiment may well have changed since last time G was here. I guess 230 could be a test.
https://invst.ly/oarya

Whilst we are following G’s recent improvement in sp relative to OP, which has mostly occurred since October 10th, I find it interesting that GKP, RDSb and DNO have all slipped relative to Brent over that period. There seems to be no obvious explanation for this, as none of them were particularly ahead of OP prior to that point.
So whilst G has added about 20%, two thirds of which can be attributed to OP rising by 6%, GKP and RDSb are barely up 1% and DNO is down 2.5% - though rapidly making up for it.
https://invst.ly/oa226
One would have to assume that they’ll catch up with Brent at some point.
Meanwhile, G v the others since Brent peaked at $74 in April confirms G’s relative improvement compared to its peers.
https://invst.ly/oa2xw

A timely reminder by bunks of the interim (around 5.5p) that should be factored-in when making that sell/buy calculation over the next few weeks.

Ha! You are right of course, Hydrogen.
Bina B is the key that could unlock the 'transformation' that even Tony talked about as it would also pave the way for Miran. However, pantomime season is upon us and fairy tales are best avoided if you are investing. I suspect that, after a yo-yo trip in the G elevator, a fair number of G investors are just thinking about how soon it will reach a floor they can comfortably get off at.
For them it will be once bitten, twice shy when it comes to 250 and then 300 - so there are probably going to be significant price barriers around those levels. As NakedTruth's post implies, there'll be trading opportunities all the way for those prepared to risk being left behind

Yes Hydrogen - Bina Bawi is certainly the current 'hook': it would undoubtedly propel G by another level.
In the meantime I think Naked Truth's suggested range is about right, although OP seems to be fairly well controlled at $59+ so I'd put the bottom end of the sp range nearer 195 at the moment

There’s a lot going on in this G v 3xBrent chart for 2019
https://invst.ly/o9g6s
but the main message is simple: G has rarely been this far above the green trace of 3xBrent - the gap between the two being a measure of the ratio of G v OP.

It previously achieved similar levels in March when the sp hit 230 for the first time this year - the ratio at that point was nearly 3.5x, so rather better than today but very short lived. The ratio then dropped off rapidly following apparent market disappointment with the annual statement and the selloff by Majedie, mentioned by Hydrogen. Although it went on to get to 230 again in April this was almost entirely due to a strong OP which, unless you were keeping an eye on the ratio, masked the underlying weakness. By late May G was well under the 3xBrent green trace, at levels that triggered the buybacks.

The current strength could indicate the start of a more sustainable market revaluation of G. From a long-term point of view, resistance, support and trend lines are subjective and not penny accurate but it is pretty clear that 210 (ie 207-212) represents a level that G needs to capture with OP above $61 in order to consolidate and move on to the next stage.

Fair enough Hawkey - it's never wrong to take a profit and you do seem to have been a little unbalanced of late (from a prtfolio pov!).
208, being on the trend line currently, is a logical point to consider selling a few as it has ordinarily cycled back down to the 170s from here. Just bear in mind however, that if G holds onto the new 3.3x ratio to OP, it may not cycle back down as far and that even at $57 OP it may now be pretty solid in the 190s. That 's currently around half the previous profit potential yet with an increased risk of breaking upwards towards 230. This is also the third time it's knocked at the door since May... https://invst.ly/o6dsd
Having taken some profits recently and in no rush to offload more , I'll be waiting to see how if handles the 210 ish resistance and looking for signs of progress towards 230

Very good point Hydrogen - that period was a killer for G's sp - only now is it recovering.

Mayor Bunks 207
Boyo 209
Broadland 215 (champ)
ocelot 225
Withoutt 230

Boyo 209
Mayor Bunks 207
Broadland 215 (champ)
ocelot 225
Withoutt 230

bunks: We might even have a little nibble at GKP later....
Just to bore bunks again - I think you'll find that G passed GKP as far as Mar Cap is concerned a few weeks ago. That excludes treasury shares but that would probably not matter. I make the current difference in Mar Cap about £100m.
I know it's an old chestnut but, as I also recall, GKP should be about 30% above G on a strict comparison from the day it started to rise from the ashes, 13/10/16 (G closed at 99, GKP at 127 on the day that particular starting pistol was fired).